SportsGuy04's Tuesday 12/16 Leans/Picks

[sportsguy04]

Alright, Im switching over from the season long thread to posting a daily thread with picks and leans. I like to get feedback from all of you other knowledgable cappers and like to see what everyone else is also on. The long season thread gets to be to long and confusing.

So with that in mind,

Leans for Tuesday 12/16:

Marquette - Hopefully the public will be on Tenn. So I can get more points out of Marq. But I like Marq all the way down to +5, which this number wont even get close to. Hopefully it will reach +8.5 or so.

Tennessee Tech - I know this line will rise. Its opening at +17.5, the public is already starting to hit Florida State. Tennesee tech can put up some points, averagin 79 points a game and is a very deep team going 10 players and very balanced scoring. FSU is 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 home games. FSU is 9-1 but they arent the team that blows people out. They played Stetson, Coastel Carolina, and Western Illinois all at home so far only winning by an average of 9 points in those 3 games. I think Tenn tech can cover tis 17.5. But Ill wait to play it, I think that number is going to go up a couple of points.


Florida atlantic +1 is also a small lean right now.

[sportsguy04]

Looking at Portland PK also.

[WestsidePete]

I think the public will be on Tenn...especially being the game is in their state ...did you see that Temple game?? Tenn really looked bad...not nearly the same as last year...this years team turns the ball over a lot...all over marquette in this one

[sportsguy04]

I think the public will be on Tenn...especially being the game is in their state ...did you see that Temple game?? Tenn really looked bad...not nearly the same as last year...this years team turns the ball over a lot...all over marquette in this one

Well I have two theories on who the public will be on.

1. They will be on tenn. Public typically always plays the fav. Especially since they are playing in their same state and some of the public will think this is in Knoxville.

2. They will be on Marq. They saw that blowout loss aganst temple and realize that tenn still has work to do.

But, Im thinking and hoping they are on Tennessee so I can watch the line go to Marq +8.5 or so and I will play them for a decent size amount.

[WestsidePete]

Like Portland as well...
a couple of ball handling stats
N Colo gives up 18.3 turnovers a game and only avg 5.4 steals
Port only gives up 14.1 turnovers but avg 7.6 steals a game

[WestsidePete]

I agree....just can't see joe public on marquette...especially when you think of all the exposure tenn gets on espn with the team and it's coach...when have you ever seen marquette get attention from espn??

[sportsguy04]

I agree....just can't see joe public on marquette...especially when you think of all the exposure tenn gets on espn with the team and it's coach...when have you ever seen marquette get attention from espn??

Yup I totally agree. They will be on Tennesee. Marquette has had a quietly good season so far. Also on Portland, public is up to 60% on portland. I think that number will only go up.
Thinking now is the best time to lock Portland in, but still got to research more on them so still a lean.

[WestsidePete]

Portland beat Nevada and Washington...solid wins
N Colo only has wins vs Denver and Texas St...both garbage teams

[sportsguy04]

Still waiting to put my picks in. The line for FAU is going in my favor so will wait a few hours on that. It is now at +1.5.

Marquette line has dropped to +6 at my book. Thats not what I was hoping. Still going to wait on that to go back up.

Portland is now at +1 instead of a PK.

Tenn tech is still at +17. ALso waiting to see what happens with that line.

[sportsguy04]

J.P Prince is also out tonight for the Vols.

[MrMonkey]

Even though UT is deep (lots of young talent) with Prince doubtful (DNP Temple) Marquette looks good. UT doesn't seem to be pressing as well (easy baskets) this year? Marq. has experience and good guard play, hopefully beat press and attack for easy baskets?

MrMonkey

[sportsguy04]

Even though UT is deep (lots of young talent) with Prince doubtful (DNP Temple) Marquette looks good. UT doesn't seem to be pressing as well (easy baskets) this year? Marq. has experience and good guard play, hopefully beat press and attack for easy baskets?

MrMonkey

Yup I agree. With out Prince. Marq covers the spread.

[sportsguy04]

Official Plays for Tuesday:

Tenn Tech + 17 1*


Will have more plays coming but waiting to see the line movements. Had to get Tenn tech in for 70% of public is on them and line has dropped 1.5 points since it opened.

[MoneySportsGuy]

Yeah I got Tenn Tech at +18.5 and again at +17 now its currently +16.5..... see what happens if goes back up or not

[sportsguy04]

2nd official play:

Florida Atlantic +2 2*

[sportsguy04]

3rd official play:

Portland +1 3*

- 83% of public is on portland so this lin will be Portland -1, -2 come later on.

[sportsguy04]

I would do some score predictions but last night in the riverside game I was off by 1 point for each team. SO I really dont want to push my luck.

[WestsidePete]

Yeah I got Tenn Tech at +18.5 and again at +17 now its currently +16.5..... see what happens if goes back up or not

damn +18.5 is good

[sportsguy04]

Changing portland +1 from a 3 unit play to a 4 unit play.

[jesron1269]

Changing portland +1 from a 3 unit play to a 4 unit play.

Love all of those plays... in particular I love Tenn Tech and Portland. I am on all three plays. BOL!

[sportsguy04]

Final card

Final Card:

Tennessee Tech +17 1*
Portland +1 4*
Florida Atlantic +2 2*


NBA:
Rockets -3 1*

[sportsguy04]

Final Card:

Tennessee Tech +17 1*
Portland +1 4*
Florida Atlantic +2 2*


NBA:
Rockets -3 1*

Of course I win my 1 unit plays and lose my 2 and 4 unit plays. Lose another 4.4 units tonight. Just as I gained some back from last night I lose even more.

[sportsguy04]

I am in a bit of a whole after these 3 days, and have to pay the man Friday. Im just going to pick a game tommorow and lay 1/3 of what I owe on one game.