Mon, DEc 8 Totals - AN EXPERIMENT

[curious]

Okay, don't go crazy on these. THIS IS AN EXPERIMENT.

All these plays are to win 10 units. 10 units is my lowest level play, it means "this might work out so I will throw a few units on it, what the heck". My rating system is 10 to 300, so you can see these are minimum unit plays. I'm going to put down the total I think the game will end at, then the O/U play.

Hawaii Illinois 126 U 129 Win
Wichita St TCU 110 U 119 Win
San Jose ST San Diego 110 U 115 1/2 Win
Indiana Ohio 142 O 135 Loss
Lamar Louisville 149 O 140 Loss

[fuall 2]

"THIS IS AN EXPERIMENT."

Wondering why you didn't play o-u.

[curious]

"THIS IS AN EXPERIMENT."

Wondering why you didn't play o-u.

What?

[fuall 2]

What?

I haven't seen you bet the under overs before. Why?

Thanks for the solid picks.

[curious]

I haven't seen you bet the under overs before. Why?

Thanks for the solid picks.

I don't know. I totally tore up the totals in MLB. Never had any confidence in them in NCAAB. I have been working on the prediction models so they can predict totals with some degree of accuracy. The experiment is to see if it works.

Indiana St / Ohio Under looking good so far.

Sorry, I was looking at the wrong line, Indiana ST / Ohio Over NOT looking good.

[EaglesPhan36]

I'm confused how is the Indiana State under looking good when you list it as an over?

[curious]

I'm confused how is the Indiana State under looking good when you list it as an over?

Because I looked at the wrong line.

That is what I love about this forum. Always someone ready to point out any mistake someone makes. You could post plays in this forum that go 500-0 and no one would notice. But read the wrong line and look out! LOL

[Make_Me_Puss]

curious u little chemist you....always cookin up these experiments....lol thx for the great picks mannn

[EaglesPhan36]

Because I looked at the wrong line.

That is what I love about this forum. Always someone ready to point out any mistake someone makes. You could post plays in this forum that go 500-0 and no one would notice. But read the wrong line and look out! LOL

Oh no bro, don't mistake me for a hater or anything. I was just confused because I had the play as an over and it's getting skunked - so seeing someone of your skill on it would have made me feel better.

[Oracal6969]

thanks for all your hard work..It's greatly appreciated..u've def made me money

[curious]

Oh no bro, don't mistake me for a hater or anything. I was just confused because I had the play as an over and it's getting skunked - so seeing someone of your skill on it would have made me feel better.

I don't think you are a hater. We have been pals since I first joined this forum. Though you changed your Avatar.

I was just kidding around.

[MoneySportsGuy]

curious,

Looking at the totals so far, does your system favor anything in particular such as hot streaks etc? Just wondering as Louisville scoring so much last 2 days wondering if there is a let down factor in tonight's game for the total or if that doesnt even really matter.

[EaglesPhan36]

You using any sort of model for this one? I just started using possessions & pts. per possession a little more when I look now especially related to totals.

[curious]

You using any sort of model for this one? I just started using possessions & pts. per possession a little more when I look now especially related to totals.

I'm using points per possession and pace.

I need to try to figure out which team will control pace. Right now I just sort of average it. But some teams control pace more than others, in other words some slow teams will slow down a fast team, while some fast teams will speed up a slow team. So far I don't have a repeatable way to determine that.

[curious]

curious,

Looking at the totals so far, does your system favor anything in particular such as hot streaks etc? Just wondering as Louisville scoring so much last 2 days wondering if there is a let down factor in tonight's game for the total or if that doesnt even really matter.

I use points per possession and pace.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah. I thought this one was gonna be about 6-8 points over the total based on the points per possession deal because they both matched up well in that regard. Guess I need to account more for fatigue in the 3rd game in 3 days for teams that aren't great shooting teams like these two.

Pace will be interesting. You might need another month of games to have a better idea at what teams do there.

[curious]

3-2 the first day of playing totals

Not bad I guess, let's see what happens tomorrow.

[MoneySportsGuy]

Thats a good start your up at least!

[ebbearsfb1]

10 units is how many dollars? 1000?

1 unit = 100 dollars?

[curious]

10 units is how many dollars? 1000?

1 unit = 100 dollars?

You have to determine that from your bankroll. The range is 10 to 300. For some people 1 unit might be 10 cents, for other people 1 unit might be 10 dollars, for other people 1 unit might be 100 dollars. Depends on your bankroll size.

[ebbearsfb1]

yea thats what i thought curious but i had saw u said ten units so im assuming ur bankroll is a bit higher than me.


for myself it be 10 dollars = 1 unit. keep it small till i get up there. doing well so far keep up the good work

[demize21]

not a bad start i also teaesed the later 4 games since didnt get home till after start of first (lucky for me ) and they won i went 3-1 straight up good timing got home a lil late hehe but thanks again for your efforts definately + many units since following your strategies