Sunday, Dec 7 Plays

MoneySportsGuy · 12-07-08, 03:14 AM

Wow glad I capped very similiar to you! Noticed Manhattan, Bradley and KSU all looked solid dogs and really like Niagara, Canisius, and Maryland.

I'm also looking at FSU and UF but those can be tricky as in state rivalries are always intense.

ebbearsfb1 · 12-07-08, 10:24 AM

im new to the site.. but i've been following for a long time just never posted ne thing. figured might as well start time.

curious i was wondering are your picks down in a confedience order or do you just put them down.

big fan of nigara and manhattan picks though.

best of luck to everyone

curious · 12-07-08, 10:28 AM

Originally posted by ebbearsfb1

im new to the site.. but i've been following for a long time just never posted ne thing. figured might as well start time.

curious i was wondering are your picks down in a confedience order or do you just put them down.

big fan of nigara and manhattan picks though.

best of luck to everyone

I don't know what that means "confidence order". I use a math model that tells me what the outcome of the game will be. I compare that to what the linesmakers think the outcome willl be. I convert the difference between the two into an expected value. Then I use 1/2 Kelly Criterion with a 1 or 2% risk of ruin to calculate bet size in units. I post the unit size with the pick. I'm not any more "confident" or less "confident", I am merely showing what the probabilities are.

wild willy · 12-07-08, 10:40 AM

Hey Bud Thanks Again For All Your Hard Work , Most People Don"t Realize The Time It Takes To Cap So Many Games.

ebbearsfb1 · 12-07-08, 11:08 AM

sorry what i should of said

was do you put it in order of top play, (least risky play)

to most risky

curious · 12-07-08, 11:10 AM

Originally posted by ebbearsfb1

sorry what i should of said

was do you put it in order of top play, (least risky play)

to most risky

No. You can tell by the unit size which plays have the most expected value. The higher the unit size the higher the expected value.

manny24 · 12-07-08, 01:00 PM

must have gotten all your work done early? glad to see you back. now do work son!

MoneySportsGuy · 12-07-08, 02:05 PM

Niagara covers!

TPowell · 12-07-08, 02:10 PM

with you on Niagara, Maryland, and Canisius but I'm on Oregon

Dfjay9 · 12-07-08, 02:11 PM

I'm with you today on Manhattan and MD

MoneySportsGuy · 12-07-08, 02:17 PM

great pick for Niagara lets keep the wins coming!

curious · 12-07-08, 02:54 PM

Ohio +22, is this a misprint?

Well, if this line is real you crackheads better jump all over this.

I'm adding this to my plays for today
Ohio +22 330 to win 300 units

Ohio ML +2800 100 to win 2800 units

WestsidePete · 12-07-08, 02:56 PM

I saw that as well...on it...too many pts given

MoneySportsGuy · 12-07-08, 03:07 PM

on Ohio as well +22 lets cash it!

curious · 12-07-08, 03:51 PM

Wow, Canisius and Nebraska got massacred

Never expected that. Oh well, on to the next one.

MoneySportsGuy · 12-07-08, 04:03 PM

Always more to play!

curious · 12-07-08, 04:05 PM

Manhattan covers....

Looked like they might win straight up there for a while. But, we will take the cover.

MoneySportsGuy · 12-07-08, 04:22 PM

Yeah thought they were going to pull the upset.

MoneySportsGuy · 12-07-08, 04:23 PM

curious,

sent you a reply back let me know what you think of that. did you get Ohio ML? both books I saw you cant do it, did yours allow it?

TPowell · 12-07-08, 04:26 PM

Louisville looks great so far but Ohio is hanging in there. 19-12 with 12 mins left

Husker36 · 12-07-08, 04:35 PM

Originally posted by curious

Never expected that. Oh well, on to the next one.

I dont know if you read my post Curious, but I had Arizona St beating the Huskers by 20.

The Husker's 6-0 record was misleading. Creighton would have beat them by 15 if their leading scorer wasnt suspended during that game. Unfortunately, unless you live in Nebraska then you wouldnt realize how bad they really are. The record and numbers tell another story.

TPowell · 12-07-08, 04:48 PM

might be able to scalp that Ohio game. UL up 42-24 with 3 mins left

SamsNCharge99 · 12-07-08, 04:52 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

might be able to scalp that Ohio game. UL up 42-24 with 3 mins left

still a second half to play. Louisville covers and another loss for Curious

SamsNCharge99 · 12-07-08, 04:59 PM

was that serious, look at my thread, a few down buddy, 4-1 on the day. why dont you look at my NFL picks today. 3-0 today. Keep talking shit, while I win money, you'll be blowing guys like curious for their money

TPowell · 12-07-08, 04:59 PM

I dont think he understands the concept of scalping

Dfjay9 · 12-07-08, 04:59 PM

Originally posted by Husker36

Is this broke ass pimp talking crap about Curious? Seriously? Where are your picks Mr Broke College student?

His picks are posted. Look around before you speak. He's actually doing very well this past week.

SamsNCharge99 · 12-07-08, 05:01 PM

thanks for your support.
I DO WORK

MoneySportsGuy · 12-07-08, 05:01 PM

when posters attack eachother boring entertainment

Husker36 · 12-07-08, 05:04 PM

First of all.... I was just repeating what he called himself.... a broke college student.

Second of all... what is the point on coming on here and degrading someone that made me almost 10k this week!?!? If you follow his plays you win money. If you dont like his plays.... then don't play them! Why the trash talk?

MoneySportsGuy · 12-07-08, 05:07 PM

Can't we all just get along

hahaha seems some on this site make that impossible.

Husker36 · 12-07-08, 05:08 PM

Originally posted by MoneySportsGuy

Can't we all just get along

hahaha seems some on this site make that impossible.

EXACTLY!

LET'S MAKE SOME $$$$

SamsNCharge99 · 12-07-08, 05:11 PM

hey, I didn't start this, so don't be blaming me

curious · 12-07-08, 05:16 PM

Originally posted by SamsNCharge99

was that serious, look at my thread, a few down buddy, 4-1 on the day. why dont you look at my NFL picks today. 3-0 today. Keep talking shit, while I win money, you'll be blowing guys like curious for their money

Why do you have to come in my thread and talk shit like this? If you want to talk shit about me then start up a thread of your own called "Curious Sucks...Come Bash Curious" and leave me the **** alone. Either that or I can give you my home address and you can come talk shit to my face.

I post my picks, they win or they lose, people play them or they don't, either way I don't much care. When they win I root them on to have fun. How this is any of your business I'm not really sure.

I don't follow you around the forum talking shit about your picks. What do you have some kind of faggot crush on me that you have to follow me around talking shit?

MrMonkey · 12-07-08, 05:50 PM

Let Curious Be!!!

Originally posted by curious

Why do you have to come in my thread and talk shit like this? If you want to talk shit about me then start up a thread of your own called "Curious Sucks...Come Bash Curious" and leave me the **** alone. Either that or I can give you my home address and you can come talk shit to my face.

I post my picks, they win or they lose, people play them or they don't, either way I don't much care. When they win I root them on to have fun. How this is any of your business I'm not really sure.

I don't follow you around the forum talking shit about your picks. What do you have some kind of faggot crush on me that you have to follow me around talking shit?

I'am new to the forum but serious about winning! Let Curious do his thing and you do your thing! Both of you guys are doing well but I don't think your in Curious' league. Post your plays exactly like Curious does and we'll see what happens.

Sam you might be a really cool guy, but that picture makes you look like a homo!

MrMonkey