Last year Colorado State was an absolute joke in conference play, but they're 3-2 this year with both losses being by a combined 3 points. Col. State murdered Montana 85-55 in their opener and then beat Northern Colorado by 11. They played Minnesota very tough at home (71-72). An 18 point win over New Orleans is a solid sign and a 2 point loss at San Francisco doesn't really bother me. Nevada hasn't impressed me on the road yet. They beat Montana State on the road by 9 in their opener, but lost at San Diego and at Portland. In between those games they beat Oregon State by 7 points and lost to Pacific by 8 points. Colorado State has shot the ball really well in their games this year outside of the San Francisco loss. I like Colorado State right now, getting ready to look at injuries and the line movement so far
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no injuries to speak of for either team and the line at Pinny and Bookmaker has already shot to 3Comment -
Thing I don't like about Nevada is poor defense. Thinking of locking Colorado State at -2.5
23-48 against Portland
23-43 against Pacific
27-59 against Oregon State
27-50 against San Diego
21-65 against Montana StateComment -
should be NEVADA instead of New MexicoComment -
Valpo +7 looks good to me as well. I don't think Valpo is a good team because they lost to La Salle, Iona, and San Diego on a neutral court. The only bad loss was the 20 point loss to Iona which is not good, but the other 2 games they stayed with 8 points. They beat Central Florida by 17 before those 3 games. Cleveland State's defense is pretty from what I've seen, but Valpo's defense looks pretty good as well. The 7 point spread might be too many points for Cleveland State to cover. I'm going to probably need to see a big line change or some good injury info. to make this play though.Comment -
I don't see anything on Cleveland State but Valpo's best player, Brandon McPherson has been out all year and won't play against Cleveland State. No play on this oneComment -
alright I see another play that looks good and thats Princeton +12 at home against South Carolina.
Princeton lost it's first 2 home games to Maine and Central Michigan, but both were extremely close games. The loss to Maine was an overtime game and the Central Michigan loss was only by 2 points. Since then, Princeton has reeled off 2 straight road wins. A 12 point win over Fordham while getting 4.5 points is pretty impressive. The difference in the road wins were better rebounding and better defense. Princeton's FG% defense is a lot better than you would think. South Carolina is 4-1 with some really high scoring wins. However, 3 of the games weren't lined and the 1 that was lined, they didnt cover. They lost to Charleston in overtime in their last game which was their FIRST NON-HOME GAME. I think Princeton will be able to at least slow the pace of the game down with their solid defense and I'm not sure about South Carolina's ability to play away from home. Once again, checking injuries and line moves, back in a secComment -
alright I see South Carolina starting guard Bradis Ross has been out since the 20th of November. I dont see anything about Princeton which is a good sign. Since Ross has been out for South Carolina, they lost their first game. I'm going to follow the line a little bit more but I like Princeton in this game. Going to do a little line shopping thoughComment -
TPowComment -
This is what I like so far, going to do more anlaysis and lock up few of these right now:
Miami -7.5
Valpo +7
Col State -2.5
Houston +3
Utah State
Duke +3Comment -
with you on Colorado State def, have you looked at the Villanova/Penn game? Nova has looked a lot better than I thought so far but havent played on the road yet. I think they cover the 13.5 points, but just wondered what you thought. Only thing I dislike is it's an "area game"Comment -
another thing I like about Nova/Penn is that center Andreas Shcreiber is questionable after a shoulder injury. The guy isn't a starter I dont think but I think Penn is basically playing him as a KEY reserve which means he'll play the minutes. In mid November they also lost a key reserve guard and a forward. Nova will miss Drummond who is going to transfer, but he really wasnt getting the playing time you'd think he was. I like Villanova here, but I think this line might drop. Started at 14 and is now down to 13.5 everywhereComment -
Marquette is in another game I'm looking at. They are giving Central Michigan 23 points. Marquette is going to score a lot of points against these guys and I would assume that the lack of defense in their loss to Dayton will not happen again. This should be a motivated team after that loss and Central Michigan just isn't very good. The only decent road performance they had was a win over Princeton which was a fluke from what I'm seeing right now. They were beaten by 10 by both Chicago State and Illinois-Chicago on the road. CMU's defense on the road has been terrible and I see Villanova hanging 100 on them to be honest. They let Chicago State score 84 points, Illinois-Chicago scored close to 80 points as well. So far I like Marquette even though 23 points is a LOT of points for a team coming off a loss.Comment -
Central Michigan's top returning scorer is actually ineligible until the 20th of December. Marko Spica was a F-C last year who started and is also OUT for this game. Key reserve Marcus Van is probable after serving a 6 game suspension. Marquete is missing 3 players (2 centers and a forward). The forward actually might be back for tommorow's game. This is another game that I'm going to have to do some line shopping withComment -
South Alabama is getting 6.5 from Southern Mississippi. South Alabama has already been to Louisville and Ole Miss this year. They didnt cover either spread, but both are good teams and South Alabama was understandably overrated after such a good year last year. They nearly beat Arkansas at home and have won their last 2 games in double digits (Maine and UC Davis). Southern Miss. is a team that I think is overvalued, but nobody has found out yet. They've won their last 2 games, but havent covered small spreads (4 and 5 points). I think South Alabama is every bit as good as La Salle and Iona who Southern Miss didn't beat by 6+ points. I think South Alabama will be able to bully Southern Miss on the boards because they have done a good job so far rebounding the basketball against teams like Louisville and Ole Miss. The only team that has held South Alabama to a low FG% was Louisville, which is a constant top 5 defensive team in the nation. Actually, they have shot the ball VERY well so far this season outside of the UL game. Southern Miss's defense has been a little shaky FG% wise and they have been outrebounded in basically all of their tough games this yearComment -
I think Nova covers -13.5Comment -
Southern Illinois is giving Saint Louis 8 points as well. Southern Illinois is 2-3 on the year with 1 win being from a D-? team. The only win was a 7 point win at home against UMass. They lost to Duke, UCLA, and on the road at Western Kentucky. Saint Louis is flat out terrible on offense. The only way they score a decent amount of points is from poor defenses. SIU's defense might not look too good this season, but UCLA and Duke are tough teams to keep from scoring. Saint Louis is also terrible on the road. They've lost at Nebraska and at Detroit in their last 2 games. They lost to Detroit by 5 which is terrible because Detroit is one of the worst teams I've seen this year. 8 points may be a lot to lay with Southern Illinois, but I think they have the defense that will just dazzle Saint Louis. I don't see Saint Louis scoring over 55 points. If Southern Illinois can hit 60, then I think they will cover. If Detroit can do it, Southern Illinois can do it too. Southern Illinois is also very tough at homeComment -
yeah South Ill looks good as wellComment -
I should have renamed the topic "Tuesday CBB discussion" but oh well I guess. I've got a couple more games left to look at then I've went through all of themComment -
Western Kentucky will be coming off a huge win against Louisville when they welcome Georgia. Western is a 4.5 point favorite in this game. I LOVE WKU here because Georgia has really struggled away from home. The crowd will be UNREAL after such a huge neutral site win like what happened Sunday. I'm a little scared of a let-down game, but I think this game being at home really helps them. Georgia lost to Loyola Chicago by 21 points!!! They barely snuck by Eastern Michigan (61-60). Both of these games were on neutral sites. Georgia just doesn't look like they can play away from home. Western seems to be very good at home. They beat Southern Illinois by 9 before the Louisville game. The big loss was a 27 point beating at Murray State. This was a definite "area game" and I dont put as much into this game since it was an area game and a road game. Western should roll in a huge home game. Former coach Dennis Felton is coaching Georgia and Western would love to beat Felton again.Comment -
looked at the whole card and this is who I like (games with lines are locked in)
Colorado State (-2.5)
Princeton
Marquette
Villanova
South Alabama
Southern Illinois
Western Kentucky (-4)Comment -
yeah going to be interesting to see how the lines moveComment -
The games I locked in have been moving. I think I might be able to get a little better line later with the restComment -
Col State now at -3 forgot to put it in before looking at my other games!Comment -
Locked it at -3 though, think still move to -4 or -4.5Comment -
yeah it hung on -2.5 on Bookmaker when everywhere else was 3Comment -
I actually got it Bookmaker for -3Comment -
yeah its like the same situation right now. Bookmaker has it at 3 and everywhere else is 3.5Comment -
well glad locked it at -3 and got it in some teasersComment
