dwest718's 2008-09 NCAAB Picks

[dwest718]

Getting started a little late but finally posted up on BetED. Will post my plays from here on out and occasionally post explanations. Will respond if anyone wants to hear my rationale on a specific game that I don't write up

La Salle +3 (2 units); ML (0.5 units)
Tennessee-Martin +25 (3 units)
Providence -24.5 (1 unit)
Tulane +22 (0.5 units)
UCF +4 (4 units) - LT Profits is on this too. 80% of the public on Valparaiso w/ a one point fade.
FAU +6 (0.5 units)
N. Colorado +8 (1 unit)
UNC -18 (1 unit); U160 (0.5 units)

Will post 9pm and later plays in a bit.

and an NCAAF play: Kent St. +3

[boys/heels fan]

Why are you on Kent St.? I have watched both teams play different opponents this year and I clearly see NIU as a big favorite. I do not yet have the talent to predict actual game scores bit IMO NIU should win by a td or more.

[dwest718]

Cleveland St. +10 (0.5 units -120)
Portland St. -9 (0.5 units)
San Diego St. +4 (1 unit -120)
Cal St. Northridge +10.5 (7 units); O151 (0.5 units)


After another 1.5 point fade,
La Salle ML (4 units +100)


And finally an early parlay:
UCF +4 + CS Northridge +10.5 + La Salle ML (0.5 units pays 3.65)

GL everyone. I'm off to the UNC-UK game.

[dwest718]

Why are you on Kent St.? I have watched both teams play different opponents this year and I clearly see NIU as a big favorite. I do not yet have the talent to predict actual game scores bit IMO NIU should win by a td or more.

Exactly the reason I like Kent St . A dog on national TV on a weeknight with everyone and their grandma on NIU. NIU played their hearts out last week and Kent St. beat up Temple.

[regularguy]

Hey dwest.

I'm curious as to why you like SD State and why you like N. Colorado. (And, by the way, it's OK to say that you are just fading regularguy.)

[dwest718]

Well good start to the season. Vegas lost a ton of money tonight so that means I didn't have too good a night either.

To respond to regularwiseguy, N. Colorado was good against Oregon and is always underrated. Plus more than 70% of the bets were on Colorado St. because theyre the team "people have heard of." SDSt. was a similar situation with more than 75% of the money on Arizona St. SDSt. always plays big games tough. Colorado St. and Arizona St. were both public consensus play and I fade the public because it is generally profitable because Vegas does not like losing money.

That being said... here's the night so far:
La Salle +3 (2 units)
La Salle ML (4.5 units)
Tennessee-Martin +25 (3 units) -Lester Hudson with only 20 and 4? Steps it up all year on the national stage last year.... where were you today Lester???
Providence -24.5 (1 unit)
Tulane +22 (0.5 units)
UCF +4 (4 units)
N. Colorado +8 (1 unit)
Cleveland St. +10 (0.5 units -120)
Portland St. -9 (0.5 units)
Cal St. Northridge +10.5 (7 units) -CSN just completely gave up on this game after the 7 minute mark. Couldn't watch the game but feel like part of it had to do with terrible coaching. Stanford at this point went on a 12-2 run with no timeout by CSN coach.
San Diego St. +4 (1 unit -120)

Parlay (0.5 units)

FAU +6 (0.5 units)
UNC -18 (1 unit)
UNC U160 (0.5 units)
CS Northridge O151 (0.5 units)


4-12
-24.0 units

Vegas getting destroyed therefore square bettors rejoice

[ppdougla]

hey don't get too down dwest! you'll pwn tomorrow!

I lost my only two plays along w/ you...Martin & SD State...neat!

[dwest718]

Early leans tonight:

Wake O169.5
Niagara +16.5

Kent St. -1.5
Morehead St. +15

Don't know if I'll play anything else. Don't even know if I'll play these. I can't get an accurate feel of money on Kent St. so I probably won't play it.

[dwest718]

So... bets for the night:
Niagara +16.5 (2 units); O160.5 (0.5 units)
Butler U117.5 (1 unit)
Charlotte -2 (0.5 units); U150 (0.5 units)
USF +8 (0.5 units)
St. Louis ML (2 units)
Morehead St. +15.5 (2 units)


Weird line move for Wake total so no play for me. St. Louis... yeah don't even ask.


plus an NBA play: Spurs +1 (2 units)

[dwest718]

Since when does Vegas lose money? And a lot of it at that?

This is ****ing incredible. Al Fisher... is the best player in the country? 25 of Kent St.'s last 27. 13 of 15 in OT. Just ridiculous. Good night... good night.

Niagara +16.5 (2 units)
Niagara O160.5 (0.5 units)
Butler U117.5 (1 unit)
Charlotte -2 (0.5 units)
Charlotte U150 (0.5 units)
USF +8 (0.5 units)
St. Louis ML (2 units) -Al Fisher is God.
Morehead St. +15.5 (2 units) -0.5 a point...

Spurs +1 (2 units)

For the year:
6-19
-30.65 units

[dwest718]

Added E. Washington +6 (2H) (0.5 units)

[dwest718]

E. Washington +6 (2H) (0.5 units)


Woot!

7-19
-30.15 units

[dwest718]

Might be playing 10 units on Illinois today. Like Fairfield, UNLV, and BYU on my preliminary look. Will be back after I finish a term paper to post my picks for the day.

[dwest718]

A lotta people are on it so I'm making it a small play:

Fairfield +11 (1 unit -120)
Would normally make this bigger because around 75% of the public on VTech with Thompson. MAAC teams always underrated against major conference teams especially in early season tourneys. And also it's a 1 point fade. However... like I said lots of people on the board on Fairfield so that makes me weary.

Will post more picks later. Like Memphis and BYU... Probably will play Illinois too.

[dwest718]

No play on Xavier game for me.

Added Memphis -23 (0.5 units -120)
Line moved a ton. Memphis beat up on UMass but didn't look good doing it.

Looking @ The Citadel, Illinois, and UC Davis tonight. Will post more later.

[dwest718]

Added Fairfield +3 (2H) (0.5 units -115)

Shot very poorly in 1st half and still in this game.

Looking at Mizzou. Line moved off 4 for Xavier with a ton of money going that way.

[dwest718]

Missouri +3 (1 unit -120); ML (0.5 units); U147 (1 unit)

[themajormt]

Im with ya on Mizzou... but was also on Fairfield so I dont know if thats good or bad

[dwest718]

Mizzou is looking good.

+1 (2H) (0.5 units -115)

[themajormt]

Are you watching the game?? Im just on espn.com

[dwest718]

Are you watching the game?? Im just on espn.com

They didn't shoot well but playing lockdown defense. Extremely quick and athletic too. Hope the pace slows down a little bit. We'll see.

[themajormt]

There is a shitload of fouls! I have the 2h under and its not helping me

[themajormt]

Mizzou top 2 scorers fould out... fukkk

[dwest718]

[themajormt]

What a ridiculous bullshit game huh?? X hits 10 Ft's in a row... Mizzou misses close to all of them.... Unreal!

[dwest718]

Plays for tonight (to continue the good day). Please start fading me

The Citadel +9 (5 units); +5.5 (1H) (1 unit)
Duke U138 (5 units)
UC Davis +11 (5 units); ML (0.5 units)
BYU -34 (3 units); U132 (2 units)
Michigan +10 (3 units)
UNLV -18 (2 units)


Fade these too:
Georgia Tech ML (3 units -150)
Steelers U35 (0.5 units -120)

[MoneySportsGuy]

goodluck dwest

[dwest718]

So far today:
Fairfield +11 (1 unit -120)
Fairfield +3 (2H) (0.5 units -115)
Missouri +3 (1 unit -120)
Missouri ML (0.5 units)
Missouri U147 (1 unit)
Missouri +1 (2H) (0.5 units -115)


Still to go:
Memphis -23 (0.5 units -120)

and all the picks posted above.

8-23-1
-32.68 units

[dwest718]

Added SIU +13 (1 unit) and SIU U135 (1 unit)

[dwest718]

Duke looks like garbage. I don't know why SIU is in such a hurry. Slow the **** down and just beat the hell out of those dookies. Zoubek is so damn terrible.

[dwest718]

This is just incredible. Vegas is giving out free money apparently. 47 FTAs for Duke... 32 fouls called on SIU... 47? 47? 47!?

[dwest718]

The Citadel +9 (5 units)
The Citadel +5.5 (1H) (1 unit)
Duke U138 (5 units)
UC Davis ML (0.5 units)
SIU +13 (1 unit)
SIU U135 (1 unit)
Memphis -23 (0.5 units -120)


Still to go:
UC Davis +11 (5 units)
BYU -34 (3 units)
BYU U132 (2 units)
Michigan +10 (3 units)
UNLV -18 (2 units)


Georgia Tech ML (3 units -150)
Steelers U35 (0.5 units -120)

8-30-1
-48.13 units

[EaglesPhan36]

You might want to think about making just a couple plays you really like instead of playing so many. Burn through cash real quick playing close to 10 or more a day I think. GL sir!

[jtuck]

I'm guessing you aren't actually betting these, but if you are you need to slow way down. Alot of your wagers are correlated too, not a good idea there.

[dwest718]

UC Davis +11 (5 units)
BYU -34 (3 units)
74-41...
BYU U132 (2 units)
Michigan +10 (3 units)
UNLV -18 (2 units)
Backdoor cover with 2 FTs with less than 15 seconds left...


Georgia Tech ML (3 units -150)
Steelers U35 (0.5 units -120)

12-33-1
-41.23 units

I've burned through my bonus money but I'm finally feeling a bit of mojo back. I missed more games by 1-2.5 points today then I missed the entire college football season.

In response to concerns about my playing volume. I have a very small unit because I'm using a system that occasionally requires me to play a very high volume of plays (as you can see). It'll settle once Vegas starts to get a feel for lines and bettors start to get a feel for teams.

I still can't believe Duke had 47 FT attempts today. Is that not the most ridiculous thing anyone has heard? Is that not some sort of NCAA record?