Post-Lockout Data

[jayule]

Quick question for the hockey cappers,

Do you just scrap the first two years of data after the lockout? I can see why you'd need to do that for totals betting but wondering if Moneyline data could still be applied for back testing.

Thanks,

Ja Yule

[a4u2fear]

In the handicapper forum there is data from 2009 on from pinnacle. Because of the decline in penalties and therefore goals, I dot think it would matter much In the ml, more with over under.

You may want to describe what you will be testing as I have already tested many things over many hours, could save you some time

[aznbluff]

The game has changed over the last 7 years. Teams would be ok to be built around offensive stars coming straight out of the lockout. Those same teams would be much, much worse today. It's why a player like Ovechkin has gone from 50+ goals every year to 30+ now. He's not playing any worse, despite the media and public perception thinking thats the case. The game has simply changed. He's the same player (though he does pass a little more than optimal for his skill set) he was for the first 5 years of his career.

I wouldn't consider data from 05/06 and 06/07 to be relevant at all

[jayule]

I'm really starting from scratch and want to explore and test everything. I assume Road Dogs have value, more so than Home Favorites. There might be line inflation for the original six teams + popular teams (e.g, Flyers). Advantages for playing against teams on short rest or that have played a bunch of games in a short amount of time, road trip fatigue, etc.

As you can see I'm really just getting started on the analysis and want to know whether I should include 2005-2006 and 2006-2007 data. I'm open to anything you want to share that could save me time, PM if you want although I don't have 20 posts yet so I'm not sure I can reply back.

Thanks,

Ja Yule

[jayule]

AZNBLUFF,

Thanks for the advice. Where would you start from? 2008? 2009?

Ja Yule

[a4u2fear]

AZNBLUFF,

Thanks for the advice. Where would you start from? 2008? 2009?

Ja Yule

There is always going to be variance. In a way of testing a good system, if it tests well in the last few years, it's even stronger if it holds through the entire lockout.

[a4u2fear]

these aren't much, but it's start for you to see:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/hockey-betting/1475663-a4u2fears-interesting-hockey-facts-2010-2011-season.html

[jayule]

There is always going to be variance. In a way of testing a good system, if it tests well in the last few years, it's even stronger if it holds through the entire lockout.

Gotcha,

Good advice, albeit more work for me but if you want to win you have to put in the hours.

Thanks

[a4u2fear]

Please Let me know if you find ML from 06,07,08,09