Fade the Judge NHL

Judgejoebrwn · 03-31-12, 11:54 AM

Added: 1U - Sens/Flyers + Jets/Lightning O1.5 1st +210

Judgejoebrwn · 03-31-12, 12:02 PM

Added: 2U Parlay - Sens/Flyers O5.5 + Blues M/L + Jets/Lightning O1.5 2nd (+224)

Judgejoebrwn · 03-31-12, 03:21 PM

Cash the first two overs and parts of the parlays!

firehoyt · 03-31-12, 04:08 PM

Great job judge.

ColdBeerHere · 03-31-12, 04:25 PM

Good job judge I'm liking your picks....I might even take a shot on that parlay and I rarely parlay....I was hesitant about VAN with their injuries, but CAL just sucks losing 4-1 at home against the AV's...they're gutless...VAN jut seems to be one of those teams that always screws me when I bet them....But got to like them in this spot. Plus they are hot...I love betting hot teams, one of the main things I look for when I bet.

I was on the phi/ott earlier and I was already on min/tb...I'm looking at the unders now and liking KINGS/WILD....and leaning also towards the stl/clb under.....

edit: just saw the under for KINGS/WILD is -140....hate paying that high juice on totals....going to debate that one for a bit

Judgejoebrwn · 03-31-12, 07:47 PM

Kinda getting screwed by goalies tonight. 4 goals in the Kings game in the 1st?! Cbus scoring 2 against St. Louis in the first?! Just insane.

Judgejoebrwn · 03-31-12, 10:56 PM

So the Kings start their backup instead of Quick, Tampa Bay plays a brand new goalie, Toronto plays a brand new goalie amd sticks it to the Sabres, and St. Louis allows the worst team in the league to tie the season record for most goals allowed against them at home. This just screams "f*cked up" all around and cost me quite a bit of money on plays that should've gone 60%+ easy.

All these crazy things that have happened in the NBA this week and Hockey was hitting, now it turns and kicks me right in the ass. This is getting tiresome...

-Judge

ColdBeerHere · 03-31-12, 11:14 PM

I hear ya..kind of mind blowing....Everytime I bet VAN they fck me...I didnt bet the parlay but I did bet over tt....

Now imagine if you would have bet all dogs on that parlay, what would have it paid ? lol

They way some of these top teams are playing I will remember come playoff time

Judgejoebrwn · 03-31-12, 11:19 PM

4/1/12

Let's hope April Fools treats us a little better.

10U - Flyers/Penguins O6 -105 - First time I've seen an O6 on the lines, but a push should be worse-case scenario here. All 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 home games have hit 6 or higher. Even with Letang's return a possibility, this total should carry over easy. Look for the Over 1st and 2nd and Penguin's TT as well.

4U - Bruins/Rangers O5 -130 - Again, loving the line at 5 for the cushion. Only 2 of the last 8 home games for NY has gone under, only 1 of the last 10 road games for Boston has gone over, and their last meeting less than a month ago ended in a 7-pointer.

4U - Senators/Islanders O5.5 -110 - Slightly riskier, however 6 of the last 9 home games for NY have gone over and 5 of the last 6 road games for the Sens have gone over. Their last meeting just over a month ago ended 6-0 Ottawa. I'd imagine the Islanders will put more points on the board this time.

Need these to come through big for me. BOL alL!

-Judge

Judgejoebrwn · 04-01-12, 03:32 PM

Cash the 10U! Only need one more goal for the Sens/Islanders!

Judgejoebrwn · 04-01-12, 08:18 PM

Cash the Sens/NY over! Looking grim for Bruins/Rangers, but if the Rangers can get another goal we'll get a push at least.

Judgejoebrwn · 04-01-12, 10:40 PM

And the Rangers go scoreless in the final two periods. Boston has had 2 or more goals scored against them in the last 16 straight road games and one of the best teams in the league can't get it done. Kinda sad.

However, we're still up 9.6U on the night, which helps alleviate the other shitty day.

Total: Up 1.7U

-Judge

Judgejoebrwn · 04-01-12, 11:10 PM

4/2/11

2U - Capitals/Lightning O5.5 -130 - Tampa Bay is one of few teams that the over is almost always a solid play, as can be seen from the line here. 6 of the last 10 road games for Washington have gone over, 6 of the last 10 for Tampa Bay have gone over, Tampa Bay has scored 3+ in 7 of their last 10 at home, and both teams have allowed 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 respective road/home games. Only downside here is the uncertainty of Tampa's new goalie, but as Pittsburgh has proven, it's more than just the goalie that determines GA.

2U - Oilers/Kings O5 -110 - Basically a pick 'em here. I've said before that the Kings are always a solid bet to go under, but this line tells a different story supported by recent games. Typically an O5 would have a plus value for the Kings, but as of late they've been scoring goals and even allowing goals to be scored. The total has gone over in 5 of the last 6 home games for Los Angeles, the one under being against St. Louis (the other best defensive team in the league). LA has also scored 4+ goals in 5 of their last 7 home games. The Oilers have allowed 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 road games, and have scored 2+ in their last 14 straight road games with an average of 3.6 GPG in their last 10. All that said, LA could start Quick and he could play phenomenally, but that doesn't seem to be the recent trend.

BOL everyone!

-Judge

Judgejoebrwn · 04-02-12, 09:15 AM

Adding: 1U - Lightning M/L +123 - Tampa Bay has won it's last 3 home games and both prior home meetings against Washington. The Caps have won just 2 of their last 5 road games. Taking the value here.

Judgejoebrwn · 04-02-12, 06:58 PM

Added: 2U - Lightning/Caps -1.5 2nd

Judgejoebrwn · 04-02-12, 08:12 PM

Cash the 2nd over! Not looking good for the game over, though. Let's hope Tampa maintains for the M/L!

Judgejoebrwn · 04-02-12, 08:41 PM

Holy...F*cking...Hell!!!! Tampa Bay scores with a minute to go AND THEN AGAIN with ONE SECOND IN THE GAME to pull out the over AND the M/L!!!

Judgejoebrwn · 04-03-12, 06:27 AM

Well, LA/Oilers went like it's should've gone all season rather than how it's been the last 10 games. Can't complain, though, as the Tampa game was about as lucky as one can get.

Wash/TBL O5.5 - Win (2U)
Wash/TBL O1.5 2nd - Win (2U)
TBL M/L - Win (1.2U)
Kings/Oilers O5 - Loss (2.2U)

Up 3U on the night, 4.7U overall.

Looking to add to it tomorrow!

-Judge

Judgejoebrwn · 04-03-12, 07:34 PM

Late putting my plays in, but I assure you they were made.

4/3/12

3U - Penguins/Bruins O6 -108 - Not much to be said here. Both teams are scoring monsters and we saw how that worked out in the Pitt/Philly game. 3 goals in the 1st as of posting this.

1U - Rangers/Flyers O5 -140 - Not a great line, but should be a solid candidate for an over. I was thinking the Rangers would at least score 2 and the Flyers would close out the rest, but Rangers are 4-0 after the first as of this post. Over should be a lock at this point, though it annoys me that the Rangers can score 4 in the first tonight but couldn't manage more than one the last time I took them in an over.

1U - Panthers/Sens O5.5 -110 - Sens are another crazy high-scoring team. The Hurricanes have scored 29 goals in their last 10 road games and have scored 2+ in 8 of those 10. Scoreless after 1, though, but I have faith.

1U - Blue Jackets M/L +197 - A shot in the dark, but at a great line. The Blue Jackets seem to have been written off by the rest of the NHL and as such are flying hot under the radar. Umberger has been a scoring machine lately and the Jackets have already beat Phoenix 5-2 in their last meeting. It wouldn't surprise me if Phoenix destroyed them, but it also wouldn't surprise me if I cashed on this play.

BOL!

-Judge

Judgejoebrwn · 04-04-12, 07:40 AM

Solid night last night.

Penguins/Bruins O6 - Win (3U) - Just can't lose currently with the Penguins and the over.
Rangers/Flyers O5 - Win (1U) - Only dropped a unit on this on, but had I known NYR would've scored 4 in the first..
Panthers/Sens O5.5 - Loss (1.1U) - Sens only managed 1 goal. Not the norm, but does happen to them.
Blue Jackets M/L - Loss (1U) - Just went out on a limb for a small price for good value. No biggie.

Overall, up 1.9U on the night.

Only two games tonight, so we'll see.

-Judge

Judgejoebrwn · 04-04-12, 11:32 AM

NHL - 4/4/12

2U - Tampa Bay/Montreal O5.5 - Some interesting stats I've found on
this one: 8 of the last 10 road games for the Lightning have gone over, Montreal
has allowed 3+ in 8 of their last 10 home games, and in the 16 road games this
season in which Tampa Bay has score 3+, 14 have gone over the total. Like
usual, that could all mean jack squat, but it's certainly supportive. Look for
the O2.5 TT for Tampa Bay as well if it pops.

2U - Tampa Bay M/L (-102) - Certainly some value in this line.
Montreal is 2-8 in their last 10 and 3-7 in their last 10 home games. With the
number of goals Montreal has been allowing, I could see this going into OT at
3-3 with Tampa taking it or 4-2 in regulation.

2U - Detroit/St. Louis U5 (+100) - Fabulous line for a St. Louis
under. No guarantee it'll happen obviously, but St. Louis has only allowed a
league-low 63 goals in 39 home games and that's including the incredibly rare 5
goals from the Blue Jackets the other night. I don't think Elliot and the Blues
want anything like that to happen again. Detroit has only managed to score more
than 2 goals once in their last 10 road games. I see St.Louis taking this one
2-1 or 3-1.

BOL everyone!

-Judge

Judgejoebrwn · 04-04-12, 11:40 AM

Added: 1U - Tampa Bay TT O2.5 + St. Louis M/L Parlay (+208) - Light play, but I like both possibilities and it has solid value.

Judgejoebrwn · 04-04-12, 10:01 PM

And once again, statistics turn out to not mean a goddamn thing. Not a bad loss tonight overall (though that Det/STL game scoring 5 in the 3rd is total BS), but just the way things went down...

Combined with my terrible NBA results tonight, I feel like flipping a coin would be almost as effective as doing all the extensive research possible.

Down 1U tonight.

Up 4.6U overall.

Till tomorrow.

-Judge

Judgejoebrwn · 04-05-12, 10:32 AM

4/5/12

Lots of games out there tonight, and naturally a number of plays.

2U - Sharks/Kings -5 (-125)
1U - Devils/Red Wings -5 (+120)
3U - Rangers/Penguins +5.5 (-110)
2U - Sabres/Flyers +5.5 (-115)
3U - Lightning/Leafs +6 (-115)
1U - Jets/Islanders +5.5 (-125)
2U - Ducks/Oilers -5.5 (-125)
3U - Bruins/Senators +5.5 (-113)
2U - Leafs TT +3 (-120)
1U - Lightning TT +2.5 (-140)

BOL everyone!

-Judge

Winnipeg Jets · 04-05-12, 02:51 PM

what you think of sens tt over 2.5? the russian in net for the b's. i know it's juiced at 155$ but i'm thinking ottawa gets 3 minimum. either them or t bay for over 2.5.

Judgejoebrwn · 04-05-12, 03:32 PM

Originally posted by Winnipeg Jets

what you think of sens tt over 2.5? the russian in net for the b's. i know it's juiced at 155$ but i'm thinking ottawa gets 3 minimum. either them or t bay for over 2.5.

Ottawa's only scored 3+ in 2 of their last 6 home games. Not familiar at all with this Rhudobin guy. It's always hard to bet against these newer untested goalies, but brief research doesn't make him out to be great by any means. I think it's likely they'll score 3+, but that's awfully high juice. 5dimes has Sens TT at 3 now @ -105. Better play at that line. I like Tampa O2.5 as well, given that Toronto has allowed 3+ in 11 of their last 13 home games. Toronto has also scored 3+ all 3 times these teams have met this season. Good luck!

Judgejoebrwn · 04-06-12, 01:05 PM

Originally posted by Judgejoebrwn

4/5/12

Lots of games out there tonight, and naturally a number of plays.

2U - Sharks/Kings -5 (-125) - Loss (2.5U)
1U - Devils/Red Wings -5 (+120) - Win (1.2U)
3U - Rangers/Penguins +5.5 (-110) - Win (3U)
2U - Sabres/Flyers +5.5 (-115) - Loss (2.3U)
3U - Lightning/Leafs +6 (-115) - Loss (3.5U)
1U - Jets/Islanders +5.5 (-125) - Win (1U)
2U - Ducks/Oilers -5.5 (-125) - Win (2U)
3U - Bruins/Senators +5.5 (-113) - Loss (3.4U)
2U - Leafs TT +3 (-120) - Push
1U - Lightning TT +2.5 (-140) - Loss (1.4U)

BOL everyone!

-Judge

Down 5.9U on the night. Pretty crappy.

Down 1.3U overall.

4/6/12

2U - Phoenix/St. Louis U5 + St. Louis M/L (+213) - These two teams have met three times this season. The Blues have won all 3 and all 3 have been 5 goals or less. The Blues may have allowed 8 goals in their last 2 home games, but they only allowed 8 total goals in the 8 home games prior to. I think they get back to those defensive ways and take this one 3-0 or 3-1.

-Judge

Judgejoebrwn · 04-06-12, 10:11 PM

Under pushed, but Elliot decided to dance in the net again. -2.2U

Down 3.5U overall.

Judgejoebrwn · 04-07-12, 10:41 AM

4/7/12

Last day of the regular season and we've got a killer parlay and a couple of small plays.

1U - Ottawa/New Jersey U5.5 (-125)

Ottawa seems to be a hot and cold scoring team. And right now, they're cold as they've only managed 1 goal in each of their last two games. They had a 4-game stretch of high-scoring a week or so ago, but prior to that they had a 5-game stretch of 2 or less. NJD has allowed 2 or less goals in 8 of their last 12 home games and they should keep the Sens at bay. Both teams are vying for position in the standings, so I'd imagine defense to be a priority.

1U - Islanders/Blue Jackets O5.5 (-110)

7 of the last 10 for both teams have gone over and both have been scoring machines lately. The Islanders have scored 3+ in 6 of their last 7 road games, while Columbus has scored 3+ in all of their last 4 home games. Neither team in the playoffs, so why not just let 'em fly?

1U - Tampa Bay/Winnepeg O6 (-120)

8 of the last 10 road games for Tampa have gone over (7+), including their last encounter with the Jets. 10 of the last 13 home games for Winnepeg have been 6+ and 6 of the last 10 were 7+. Again, two more teams with the ability to score, nothing to lose, and nothing to gain.

4.5U - 3-Pick Parlay - Pittsburgh/Philidelphia O6 + Phoenix M/L + Vancouver M/L (+316)

Pitt/Philly - All of Pittsburgh's last 10 games have been 6+, including the last meeting of these two teams in Pittsburgh, which ended in 10 goals after a huge 3rd period. I expect another fireworks show.

Phoenix M/L - Phoenix showed last night just how much they wanted to win their division, demolishing the Blues in St. Louis. The two teams beneath them in the division (Kings and Sharks) are both one point behind and are playing each other tonight. This is a must-win for Phoenix to keep the division lead and they should get it against the Wild.

Vancouver M/L - The best team in the league is playing at home against the 2nd worst team in the league in a must-win to win their conference. There is no argument for Edmonton here tonight.

BOL everyone!

-Judge

odog11 · 04-07-12, 11:43 AM

Jersey is locked into sixth, but still like this play.

Vancouver could learn game does not matter after first period is Blues lose. Oil playin' for pride and have had more consistent goalie, too much juice in the ML.

Judgejoebrwn · 04-07-12, 01:14 PM

Originally posted by odog11

Jersey is locked into sixth, but still like this play.

Vancouver could learn game does not matter after first period is Blues lose. Oil playin' for pride and have had more consistent goalie, too much juice in the ML.

Valid point regarding Vancouver, but I'd imagine they wouldn't intentionally throw the game. And we're not so sure the Blues will lose.

And it's probably due to to my ignorance in how the playoff seeds works, but aren't they based on points? How exactly are the Devils locked in 6th?

Edit: I think I see now. Division leaders are "scored" on their own, then the rest follow. Gotcha.

Judgejoebrwn · 04-07-12, 08:38 PM

Lost the under on Ott/NJD by :43, but the Jets just pulled through with :53 left to get us our O6. In addition we got the over on the Islanders/Jackets by a landslide at a solid line. Philly/Pitt game pushed, so we're still alive in the parlay. Phoenix up 2 going into the 3rd.

Judgejoebrwn · 04-08-12, 01:26 PM

Originally posted by Judgejoebrwn

4/7/12

Last day of the regular season and we've got a killer parlay and a couple of small plays.

1U - Ottawa/New Jersey U5.5 (-125) - Loss (1.25U)

1U - Islanders/Blue Jackets O5.5 (-110) - Win (1U)

1U - Tampa Bay/Winnepeg O6 (-120) - Win (1U)

4.5U - 3-Pick Parlay - Pittsburgh/Philidelphia O6 + Phoenix M/L + Vancouver M/L (+316) - Win (1.3U)

Pitt/Philly - All of Pittsburgh's last 10 games have been 6+, including the last meeting of these two teams in Pittsburgh, which ended in 10 goals after a huge 3rd period. I expect another fireworks show. Push

Phoenix M/L - Phoenix showed last night just how much they wanted to win their division, demolishing the Blues in St. Louis. The two teams beneath them in the division (Kings and Sharks) are both one point behind and are playing each other tonight. This is a must-win for Phoenix to keep the division lead and they should get it against the Wild. Win

Vancouver M/L - The best team in the league is playing at home against the 2nd worst team in the league in a must-win to win their conference. There is no argument for Edmonton here tonight. Win

Picked up 2U on the last night of the season. The Philly/Pitt push hurt the value on the parlay something fierce, but it pulled through anyways!

Finished down 1.5U overall. Not too shabby. Not sure how well I'll do or if I'll even play the playoffs, but we'll see.

-Judge

Judgejoebrwn · 04-09-12, 01:11 PM

Apparently I was on drugs when I updated my units for that last day of the season and it won't let me edit it.

Had 4.5U on the parlay at +130 due to the Philly/Pitt total push. That's +5.85U.

Add the +0.75U from the other 3 bets and we went up 6.6U on the night.

I also screwed up on the parlay loss from the other night as that only cost us 2U rather than 2.2.

In the end, up 3.3U TTD. Liking that a little better!