NHL Under Parlays

[Hockeypotamus]

Hi Guys, I'm not sure of this counting as a system or not, but I figured I'd post it anyway. Ive been doing pretty well with it, and I'd be interested in your opinions.

So, basically, what I do is bet 4-6 games to go under total 5.5 goals, depending on the total # of games on a given night.

Total Games < 6 :: Bet all 6
Total Games = 8 :: Two bets, 4 games each
Total Games = 10 :: Two bets, 5 games each
Total Games = 11 :: Two bets, 5 games each
Total Games = 12 :: Two bets, 6 games each.

*Today, with the 12 games, I'm trying two bets of 6 games, and 3 additional bets of 4 games. So I split the 12 games (6,6) and (4,4,4).

I always split the bets by the start time, to avoid bias. I've been doing this with every set of games since the Thursday prior to the all star break, and I'm up about 225% simply putting $10 on every ticket, every chance I have to do this.

I have a feeling I'm not gonna get a great reception on this, but I'm definitely interested in feedback, and why this may be a bad strategy.

Thoughts?

[allstarsteven123]

i dont see how this can be consistent

[Hockeypotamus]

Neither have I, over the long term it probably won't be. But it's been hitting decently. I had a night where 10/10 stayed under and potted a boatload.

[Microphone]

Under or Under 5.5's? Lots of 5's out there today.

[Hockeypotamus]

For me its always under 5.5, no matter the game.

[jolmscheid]

Is there an edge you see by betting all of them in parlays? Why not get better odds and use 2*team parlays?

[mathdotcom]

Why don't you bet the fukkin salami or something

You know you can't beat the game lines so you trick yourself into thinking by parlaying a bunch of individual bets you can't beat that you'll come out on top

Fukk, the first thread in the think tank is NO SYSTEMS

[Blackroc78]

[Hockeypotamus]

Why don't you bet the fukkin salami or something

You know you can't beat the game lines so you trick yourself into thinking by parlaying a bunch of individual bets you can't beat that you'll come out on top

Fukk, the first thread in the think tank is NO SYSTEMS

Well, I won for $239 on $35 in bets... I should have bet the Salami. I'd have 6 salamis now.

Point made thought? This is like the 7th time this has hit since the all star break. All smartassery aside, this has been working. Really well. I suggest you try it.

Secondly, I started the thread asking if I was breaking the rules. This thread is still open.

Thirdly, I'm up close about $500 on $10 bets doing this. So...Suck it!!!

[Hockeypotamus]

I find in order for the payout to be worth anything, I gotta bet at least 4 games.

For instance, If i split 12 games (6,6/4,4,4/3,3,3,3) the 3 tickets would only pay ~4-1. I usually put $5 on all of the smaller bets and $10 on the main two. If I did a 9 ticket play I would be in for 10x2+5x7=55. If one of those 3 game tickets hit I would only be in for ~20, which only barely covers the additional bet. The payout on 2 game tickets doesn't seem great. I bet small, 4-6 game parlays ramp up the payout. Winning like 8 bucks is no fun.

Lets math it out though...say I hit six games, like last night. I would hit a 6, 4, and 3 game ticket. The six pays ~15:1, the four ~7:1 and the three ~4:1. So I'm in for 26:3. On the above stated bets I would be up 205 over $35 in bets. I'm really hungover...I'll think about a loss scenario after.

[SportsMushroom]

yes this doesnt really belong in the think tank, its a system of chance, not statistics


you are doing good to take advantage of it, if I would have to guess I'd say the overs will catch up with you, keep cashing in as long as you can and when you notice the unders starting to dry up take your winnings and go elsewhere