There are some certainties this coming season. The Red Wings will be very good, the Islanders very bad, and little will separate all the others. All the season previews are coming out and most are all good reads but none forecast their predictions from a gambler’s view. Instead of focusing on what player has value on a fantasy level I look at this coming season from a betting perspective.
I wont break down every team in the NHL during this thread or advise what player you should draft in your pool. But I will offer you some opinions on what angles I will use to make my hockey season profitable. I hope to make this a running thread during the pre-season and encourage your contributions.
Atlanta Thrashers
Back their opponent on the goal line when the Thrashers go on the road.
Perhaps it’s because they have one of the most prolific scorers in hockey, (Ilya Kovalchuk), or because they have never been known to play much defense. Perhaps it’s just because they play in the wide open Southeast division where 5-4 finishes are common but I always thought of Atlanta as being a team to play the over with. However, the Thrashers played to the under in 2007-08, (35-45-2), mostly due to the fact that they could only muster 216 goals for the season., (ranked 22nd in the league with a 2.5 GPG average).
However the real profits betting on, (or against), Atlanta last season wasn't in the totals. Their lack of offense contributed to another profitable angle. Back their opponent on the goal line whenever the Thrashers took to the road.
Atlanta was 15-21-1-4 on the road last year. Of those 21 road regulation loses, 20 were by more than one goal. It wasn’t until March the 18th until they lost their first road game, (in regulation), by just one goal. Not surprisingly they ranked 28th in road offense with a 2.2 GPG average. Once you got the Thrashers away from the frenzied crowds of Blueland they became the worst team in hockey and were routinely blown out of games.
Before you think it’s easy to look at this in hindsight consider this proactive stance. They had this atrocious record last year with Marian Hossa feeding Kovalchuk, (at least for most of the year). This year it looks to be Erik Christensen and Jason Williams setting him up. I like Jason Williams but face it. He’s no Marian Hossa. After this top line the talent pool at forward drops off dramatically. Most teams should have little trouble in defending against this one line wonder and goal scoring still looks to be a concern for them on the road.
Boston Bruins
Wager the under on totals of 5.5 or against the Western Conference.
Bruins weakness last year was not owning any puck moving defensemen that could push the attack through the neutral zone. So what was their lone major off season acquisition? They picked up Michael Ryder. Brilliant!
When your projected top line consists of Marco Sturm, Ryder, and Marc Savard the Bruins clearly will exhibit a defense first system again this year. The Bruins had just two players reach 20 goal seasons last year, (Sturm 27 and Chuck Kobasew 22). Patrice Bergeron does return after missing nearly the entire season with a serious concussion but you have to question how he’ll perform or how long he’ll perform for.
Two things you can be certain of. The Bruins will struggle with their transition game again this year and coach Claude Julien will stress defense first. His game plan has to be the same as last year. His roster demands it. They will clog up the opposition’s passing lanes and neutral zone. They will force their opponent to take low percentage shots from the half boards or outside the dots. They will dump and chase.
They will not have enough offense to make it to the playoffs this year but can still be a profitable team for us by backing their totals to go under. Their O/U/P last year came in at 30-49-3. In the playoffs they continued the trend at 2-3-2 and if it wasn’t for the Carey Price meltdowns in games 5 and 6 no game would have went over the total.
Two strong angles should be noted regarding the Bruins propensity to go under the number.
1) Last year they went 21-41 when the total was set at 5.5.
2) The Bruins recorded a 1-8-1 O/U mark versus the Western Conference last year.
In the ten games they played versus the west only once did the two teams combine to score more than 5 goals. That lone game was early in the season, at Los Angeles, and had Manny Fernandez against Jonathan Bernier in nets. Seven goals were scored in the third period alone and the 8-6 Bruins final went a long way in skewing Boston’s season ending 5.1 goals per game average.
It should be also noted that the Bruins were only 1 of 4 Eastern Conference teams to have a winning record against the west.
I wont break down every team in the NHL during this thread or advise what player you should draft in your pool. But I will offer you some opinions on what angles I will use to make my hockey season profitable. I hope to make this a running thread during the pre-season and encourage your contributions.
Atlanta Thrashers
Back their opponent on the goal line when the Thrashers go on the road.
Perhaps it’s because they have one of the most prolific scorers in hockey, (Ilya Kovalchuk), or because they have never been known to play much defense. Perhaps it’s just because they play in the wide open Southeast division where 5-4 finishes are common but I always thought of Atlanta as being a team to play the over with. However, the Thrashers played to the under in 2007-08, (35-45-2), mostly due to the fact that they could only muster 216 goals for the season., (ranked 22nd in the league with a 2.5 GPG average).
However the real profits betting on, (or against), Atlanta last season wasn't in the totals. Their lack of offense contributed to another profitable angle. Back their opponent on the goal line whenever the Thrashers took to the road.
Atlanta was 15-21-1-4 on the road last year. Of those 21 road regulation loses, 20 were by more than one goal. It wasn’t until March the 18th until they lost their first road game, (in regulation), by just one goal. Not surprisingly they ranked 28th in road offense with a 2.2 GPG average. Once you got the Thrashers away from the frenzied crowds of Blueland they became the worst team in hockey and were routinely blown out of games.
Before you think it’s easy to look at this in hindsight consider this proactive stance. They had this atrocious record last year with Marian Hossa feeding Kovalchuk, (at least for most of the year). This year it looks to be Erik Christensen and Jason Williams setting him up. I like Jason Williams but face it. He’s no Marian Hossa. After this top line the talent pool at forward drops off dramatically. Most teams should have little trouble in defending against this one line wonder and goal scoring still looks to be a concern for them on the road.
Boston Bruins
Wager the under on totals of 5.5 or against the Western Conference.
Bruins weakness last year was not owning any puck moving defensemen that could push the attack through the neutral zone. So what was their lone major off season acquisition? They picked up Michael Ryder. Brilliant!
When your projected top line consists of Marco Sturm, Ryder, and Marc Savard the Bruins clearly will exhibit a defense first system again this year. The Bruins had just two players reach 20 goal seasons last year, (Sturm 27 and Chuck Kobasew 22). Patrice Bergeron does return after missing nearly the entire season with a serious concussion but you have to question how he’ll perform or how long he’ll perform for.
Two things you can be certain of. The Bruins will struggle with their transition game again this year and coach Claude Julien will stress defense first. His game plan has to be the same as last year. His roster demands it. They will clog up the opposition’s passing lanes and neutral zone. They will force their opponent to take low percentage shots from the half boards or outside the dots. They will dump and chase.
They will not have enough offense to make it to the playoffs this year but can still be a profitable team for us by backing their totals to go under. Their O/U/P last year came in at 30-49-3. In the playoffs they continued the trend at 2-3-2 and if it wasn’t for the Carey Price meltdowns in games 5 and 6 no game would have went over the total.
Two strong angles should be noted regarding the Bruins propensity to go under the number.
1) Last year they went 21-41 when the total was set at 5.5.
2) The Bruins recorded a 1-8-1 O/U mark versus the Western Conference last year.
In the ten games they played versus the west only once did the two teams combine to score more than 5 goals. That lone game was early in the season, at Los Angeles, and had Manny Fernandez against Jonathan Bernier in nets. Seven goals were scored in the third period alone and the 8-6 Bruins final went a long way in skewing Boston’s season ending 5.1 goals per game average.
It should be also noted that the Bruins were only 1 of 4 Eastern Conference teams to have a winning record against the west.
