Calmeat's v2 NHL Picks

[fitguy67]

calmeat and banman,

just to clarify...the system, strictly defined, started out on this thread with two types of plays included= ML and RPL...but this has since been culled to include only the ML plays...everything else posted are non-system generated...do i have this right?

as with your previous mlb and nfl efforts...the performance stats for all your posted pics (both the strict system plays, and those that make up the other categories on your slate) are very impressive

appreciate the great work


results

[calmeat]

hey fit guy.
The system is only ML. they are always at the top of the post. "My Plays" are usually the system plays and they will be either ML or Regulation. Most of the time the items in My plays is what i am actually going to play. Like tonight i played STL in REG. With COL on B2B and some other trends/stats, Juice, etc We thought STL in REG was a good play. There may be other plays that just miss making the system and if we really like the game I may put it in My Plays or off the record. TB tonight was banmanj pick that he liked and i did as well but decided to leave it out of My Plays cause strange things seem to happen on weekends usually in NHL.

I used to do the parlays with Regulation to improve the return but it was losing too much. Since then i switched to only playing the System Picks in ML parlays and have been doing very well. It also acts as a hedge in case the team we have in Regulation losses but wins in OT/Shootout. Hope that helps its late im not sure if im making sense. If you need any other info just let us know. thanks

[calmeat]

Today - Off the record (I am playing them though)
Playing
DET 3x
ANA 2x
DAL 2x

[calmeat]

System Plays - All ML
YTD 18-4 ML +28.1 units

2/12/12
MON (-155) 2x
VAN (-165) 2x

My Plays
2/11/12
1-0 ML, 0-1 RPL, 1-0 Parlay
+1.68 Units

YTD:14-6 ML, 7-7 RPL, Parlays 7-4
+19.71 Units

NHL 2/13/12

ML
MON (-155) 3x
VAN (-165) 2x

Regulation PL
NP

Parlay - ML only
VAN + MON (+) 1x

Off the Record
NP

[Coach Potato]

thanks for the plays calmeat

[calmeat]

no problem lets get 'em today. Im liking MON a bit more than Vanc but hopefully both will win.

[bhattman]

don't like VAN ML tonight, dogs are at a great +$ price and playing the best hockey they have all season.

[calmeat]

really liking it now that Labarbera is in net for PHO. VAN coming off a loss and at home is too tough to pass up.

[calmeat]

System Plays - All ML
YTD 19-5 ML +27 units

2/13/12
DET (-210)

My Plays
2/13/12
1-1 ML, 0-0 RPL, 0-1 Parlay
-3.65 Units

YTD:15-7 ML, 7-7 RPL, Parlays 7-5
+16.06 Units

NHL 2/14/12

ML
STL (-170) 2x

Regulation PL
DET (-126) 2x

Parlay - ML only
STL + DET (+132) 1x

Off the Record
ANA (-120) 1x
NSH (-135) 1x
NYR (+115) 1x
STL DET ANA NSH Parlay (+640) 1x

[calmeat]

System Plays - All ML
YTD 20-5 ML +29 units

2/15/12
Van (-210) 3x

My Plays
2/14/12
0-1 ML, 1-0 RPL, 0-1 Parlay
-2.5 Units

YTD:15-8 ML, 8-7 RPL, Parlays 7-6
+13.56 Units

NHL 2/15/12

ML
PIT (-190) 1x
VAN (-210) 3x

Regulation PL

Parlay - ML only

Off the Record
BOS (-125) 1x
FLA (-125) 1/2x

[calmeat]

System Plays - All ML
YTD 21-5 ML +32 units

2/16/12
STL (-200)4x
NYR (-155)2x

My Plays
2/15/12
1-1 ML, 0-0 RPL, 0-0 Parlay
+1.1 Units

YTD:16-9 ML, 8-7 RPL, Parlays 7-6
+14.66 Units

NHL 2/16/12

ML
STL (-200)4x
NYR (-155)2x

Regulation PL


Parlay - ML only
STL + NYR (+147) 1x

Off the Record
NYI/STL Under 5 (-110) 1x
PHO/LOS Under 5 (-140) 1x
NYI/STL Under 5 + PHO/LOS Under 5 Parlay (+232) 1x

[Coach Potato]

no plays tonight calmeat?

[calmeat]

Hey,
Not really liking too much tonight. Nothing sticks out so im just playing for action tonight and small. Also to note I will also chase System losses on that night. So take last night as an example, NYR played and was getting blown out, then chased that loss with STL ML since that was the other SYS play. I believe the system has not had a night where both SYS plays have lost on the ML. Jason can correct me if im wrong.
I would post that but a lot of times i am doing other things and can't get to the PC. The Record (units +/-) are not with a chase they reflect the correct units with no chase involved.

so here is what i got for tonight.
Note DET would be the play but I am just not liking it tonight. Just a gut feeling.


System Plays - All ML
YTD 22-6 ML +32.9 units

2/17/12
NP

My Plays
2/16/12
1-1 ML, 0-0 RPL, 0-1 Parlay
-.1 Units

YTD:17-10 ML, 8-7 RPL, Parlays 7-7
+14.56 Units

NHL 2/17/12

ML
SJS (-135) 2x
NSH (+133) 1x

Regulation PL


Parlay - ML only
NP

Off the Record
NP

[calmeat]

Also jason found another filter that we are gonna track and if it goes well will add it to filter the plays for a stronger play. I think we have like 9 filters now.

[calmeat]

Oh and also got good some good looking plays this weekend so stay tuned. Possible 3 plays tomorrow and 1 on sunday.

[Coach Potato]

i look forward to it

[calmeat]

System Plays - All ML
YTD 22-6 ML +32.9 units

2/18/12
STL (-205) 3x

My Plays
2/16/12
1-1 ML, 0-0 RPL, 0-1 Parlay
-.1 Units

YTD:17-10 ML, 8-7 RPL, Parlays 7-7
+14.56 Units

NHL 2/18/12

ML
STL(-205) 3x

Regulation PL


Parlay - ML only
NP

Off the Record
VAN 1x
PHO 1x

[Coach Potato]

thanks for the plays calmeat. I was just wondering do you cap any other sports as well as nfl and nhl?

[calmeat]

jason and i have a MLB system as well. Its a chase system and also we do some 1st inning score or no score for MLB. We will be doing it again this year.

[nrok2118]

alright cal im interested, system bets looks pretty solid. Now how are you betting units? Everything to win a unit or always risk a unit?

and hows your MLB system? Just bought mlbtv this morning looking to have some fun this year

[calmeat]

Welcome nrok,
I am betting to win. I was betting with a 2.50 unit size but now that the system has been doing well have increased my bet. Jason is trying for 25 to win everyday. With that thought today i put to win 30 on STL since yesterday system play was DET but I didnt like it so didnt post or play it. Im playing the extra 5 for my recoup stupid bets yesterday.

here is the mlb thread from last year. Bets will be the same type. i will try to organize it better and also learned how to keep track of units so will track that as well this year. http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-b...-props-p6.html

[nrok2118]

with the success your having Im not surprised your arent upping your units and bankroll, hopefully i dont jinx ya coming aboard

Edit: And whats your level of chase on MLB? Looks like it doesnt lose much

[nrok2118]

Any plays today? Early games start in an hour

[calmeat]

Here is what i have so far havent really looked into much been focusing on NYR game, Im personally putting to win 100 on NYR REG.(this is my one shot at a big play hoping to hit this one)

System Plays - All ML
YTD 23-6 ML +35.9 units

2/19/12
NYR (-310) 4x

My Plays
2/17/12
1-0 ML, 0-0 RPL, 0-0 Parlay
+3 Units

YTD:18-10 ML, 8-7 RPL, Parlays 7-7
+17.56 Units

NHL 2/19/12

ML
NP

Regulation PL
NYR (-175) 5x

Parlay - ML only
NP

Off the Record
DET (-150) 2x

[calmeat]

uh well that sucked. I need to remember only play ML that game was such BS. rangers should have had that game easy.
Oh well on to the next day.

[nrok2118]

uh well that sucked. I need to remember only play ML that game was such BS. rangers should have had that game easy.
Oh well on to the next day.

Yeah right there with ya, took em for regulation. Some bullshit to let em tie just to take it in OT, if theyre gonna blow it they could have at least lost the game (Flyers fan)

[calmeat]

haha im right there with you flyers fan as well. Although Bovada doesnt have reg so took them ML there but reg with local and reg with 5dimes. Ill have to add some extra to the system plays to make up for it. Also thinking of strictly playing the system cause that has been doing well. 2-0 today (Det was a system play, but cant play them cause eventually they will lose)

[calmeat]

Nothing today.
Leans on OTT and CAR but nothing worth it in my eyes.

[jnsbanman]

Yes next time we decide to take Reg play on a system play slap me...

[calmeat]

System Plays - All ML
YTD 25-6 ML +42.9 units

2/21/12
NP

My Plays
2/19/12
0-0 ML, 0-1 RPL, 0-0 Parlay
-8.75 Units

YTD:18-10 ML, 8-8 RPL, Parlays 7-7
+8.81 Units

NHL 2/21/12

ML
SJS (-175) 1x
CLG (-165) 4x

Regulation PL
NP

Parlay - ML only
NP

Off the Record
PHO (-115) 1x

[fitguy67]

damn guys, your ML plays are unbelievably hot, 80.6% of 31 system plays (25-6) and 64.3% of 28 non-system plays (18-10)...that's 72.9% of all 59 ML plays (43-16)...

I'll stay on 'em all (but with reduced stakes...until the overall hit rate% regresses back into the 60's)

amazing work, CM and JSB

[jnsbanman]

The original incantation of this system was hitting mid 60s... Now with tweaks and very selective play we are hitting that +/- 75% on system plays... now for 2 months steady. If I was able to back test for Dec and Nov I'm quite confident that the result would be the same.

January from then beginning of the month went 25-8 75.75% and the plays were still not quite as selective as this month.

EDIT For reference Previous months numbers

November - 14-12 66% (Started 12th, so missing 11 days)
December - 33-21 61%
January - 25-8 76% (Implementation of new selection processes)
February - 17-5 76% (To Feb 21)

[PuckIt]

I'll be tailing from now on Nice work guys.

[jnsbanman]

I'll be tailing from now on Nice work guys.

Thanks

[calmeat]

thanks for the breakdown Jason.

Should i only post the system plays from now on, and then "off the record" for any other plays that just miss the official play?