Streaky System

[Optional]

I take some notice of team streaks when capping NHL games and have noticed it's been a pretty reliable metric so far this season.

Going to use this thread to track a simple system.

Rule 1: Tail teams who have won their last 2 games, and at least 6 of their last 10.
Rule 2: Fade teams who have lost their last 2 games, and at least 6 of their last 10.
Rule 3: If price is worse than -160, play Reg Time -½ (no bet worse than -160)
Rule 4: If a Tail plays a Fade double up the bet, or take the PL.


I'll also be tracking totals in games where Tail v Tail and Fade v Fade to see if there is any correlation there.



Fri 30th Dec

Calgary Flames* +115 vs Ottawa Senators 1 Unit (Fading Senators)
Detroit Red Wings* +115 vs Chicago Blackhawks 1 Unit (Tailing Wings)

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Current Tails: Boston, Vancouver, Detroit and Winnipeg
Current Fades: Toronto, Ottawa, Edmonton and Phoenix

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0-2 -2.30u


Current Tails: Boston, Vancouver, Nashville, Washington and Winnipeg
Current Fades: Calgary, Toronto, Buffalo, Edmonton and Phoenix


2 Unit
7:05 PM 64 Winnipeg Jets* -125 vs Toronto Maple Leafs

1 Unit
1:05 PM 52 New York Islanders* -130 vs Edmonton Oilers
6:05 PM 58 Minnesota Wild* -122 vs Phoenix Coyotes
7:05 PM 61 Ottawa Senators* +130 vs Buffalo Sabres
7:05 PM 65 Washington Capitals* -120 vs Columbus Blue Jackets
8:05 PM 71 Boston Bruins (1st 60 min)* -½ -109 vs Dallas Stars (1st 60 min)
10:05 PM 73 Vancouver Canucks* -135 vs Los Angeles Kings


A lot more plays than I expected. Might also test with the minimum required streak of 3 for a few days to compare. Which would leave;

1 Unit
6:05 PM 58 Minnesota Wild* -122 vs Phoenix Coyotes
8:05 PM 71 Boston Bruins (1st 60 min)* -½ -109 vs Dallas Stars (1st 60 min)
10:05 PM 73 Vancouver Canucks* -135 vs Los Angeles Kings

[Optional]

2 Unit
7:05 PM 64 Winnipeg Jets* -125 vs Toronto Maple Leafs

1 Unit
1:05 PM 52 New York Islanders* -130 vs Edmonton Oilers
6:05 PM 58 Minnesota Wild* -122 vs Phoenix Coyotes
7:05 PM 61 Ottawa Senators* +130 vs Buffalo Sabres
7:05 PM 65 Washington Capitals* -120 vs Columbus Blue Jackets
8:05 PM 71 Boston Bruins (1st 60 min)* -½ -109 vs Dallas Stars (1st 60 min)
10:05 PM 73 Vancouver Canucks* -135 vs Los Angeles Kings

4-3 +1.64 units

Overall: 4-5 -0.66 units

3 streak picks went 0-3



1st Jan

2 Units
Nashville Predators* -121 vs Calgary Flames

[Optional]

Preds win +2 units

Overall 5-5 +1.34 units

2nd Jan

1 unit
Chicago Blackhawks (1st 60 min)* -½ -139 vs Edmonton Oilers (1st 60 min)
Colorado Avalanche* +150 vs Los Angeles Kings

Tailing Hawks and Avs.


Ottawa v New Jersey is tail v tail tonight. Will track total.

[caboman]

I am guessing you are on TB for 2 units today? Other picks may include NYI, Washington for 2u, Edmonton and Phoenix?

I am on TB for sure, don't know about the rest...

[Optional]

I am guessing you are on TB for 2 units today? Other picks may include NYI, Washington for 2u, Edmonton and Phoenix?

I am on TB for sure, don't know about the rest...

Yep. Lovin the Bolts as dogs today!

Been thinking about this and decided the 1 unit plays are kind of silly. Making picks with no reference at all to the opposition.

Think I'm just going to track bets for the Tail v Fades, and just keep track of Tail v Tail and Fade v Fade games to see if any pattern emerges.

[Optional]

New Rules: We only play games where a Tail meets a Fade. (for 1 unit flat for the purpose of this thread)

New Record: 2-0 +2.00 units

Tail v Tails
OTT 3 NJ 2 (OT)

Fade v Fades


3rd Jan

Current Tails: NAS/OTT/COL/WPG/WAS/TB/NYR
Current Fades: MON/ANA/CGY/TOR/BUF


Tampa Bay Lightning* +118 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
Washington Capitals (1st 60 min )* -½ -111 vs Calgary Flames (1st 60 min) (or the puckline if you prefer)

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So much for the Bolts love

Tampa Bay Lightning* +118 vs Toronto Maple Leafs
Washington Capitals (1st 60 min )* -½ -111 vs Calgary Flames (1st 60 min) (or the puckline if you prefer)

New Record: 3-1 +2.00 units

Tail v Tails
OTT 3 NJ 2 (OT)

Fade v Fades


4th Jan

Current Tails: NAS/OTT/COL/WPG/WAS/DET/NYR
Current Fades: MON/ANA/CGY/CAR


Winnipeg Jets* +120 vs Montreal Canadiens

[Optional]

Winnipeg get smashed.

New Record: 3-2 +1.00 units

Tail v Tails
OTT 3 NJ 2 (OT)

Fade v Fades


4th Jan

Current Tails: WAS/NAS/OTT/Avs/NYR/DET/SJ
Current Fades: CGY/ANA/CAR/MIN


no bets today.

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5th Jan

Current Tails: OTT/WAS/NYR/SJ/Avs/BOS/DET
Current Fades: MIN/PHX/EDM/CAR/CBJ/ANA/CGY

Florida at New Jersey
NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
Buffalo at Carolina
Colorado at Chicago
NY Islanders at Anaheim



No bets again today. But I'm taking the 2 NY teams personally.

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6th Jan

Current Tails: NYR/OTT/Avs/WAS/SJ/BOS/DET
Current Fades: MIN/EDM/CBJ/CGY

Vancouver at Boston
Ottawa at Philadelphia
Edmonton at Dallas
Columbus at Los Angeles
Winnipeg at Buffalo
Detroit at Toronto
Tampa Bay at Montreal
New Jersey at Pittsburgh
Colorado at St. Louis
Carolina at Nashville
NY Islanders at Phoenix
Minnesota at Calgary
Washington at San Jose


Well that's a damn yawn. No bets again for 3rd day in a row.

Last 2 games are watches at least.

Probably take Bruins, Stars and Kings today myself. Probably.

[Optional]

Record: 3-2 +1.00 units

Tail v Tails
OTT 3 NJ 2 (OT)
WAS 2 SJ 5

Fade v Fades
MIN 1 CGY 3


7th Jan

Philadelphia at Ottawa
Detroit at Chicago
Columbus at Anaheim

No team on either Fade or Tail list. No bets again. *yawn*

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No bets on 9th Jan (not sure why I have dates 1 day wrong above.)


10th Jan

Current Tails: NYR/SJ/STL/NJ
Current Fades: PIT/CHI/EDM/MIN/BUF

Winnipeg at Boston
Buffalo at Toronto
Detroit at NY Islanders
Phoenix at NY Rangers
Ottawa at Pittsburgh
Philadelphia at Carolina
St. Louis at Montreal
Vancouver at Tampa Bay
San Jose at Minnesota
Columbus at Chicago
Nashville at Colorado
New Jersey at Calgary
Dallas at Anaheim



Only 1 bet: San Jose Sharks (1st 60 min)* -½ +105 vs Minnesota Wild (1st 60 min)

[caboman]

I am loving SJ here. Gonna pound them 3u ML and 1u PL tonight! Let's get 'em!!

[Optional]

Hope you didn't pound it too hard caboman

Record: 3-3 ev units

Tail v Tails
OTT 3 NJ 2 (OT)
WAS 2 SJ 5

Fade v Fades
MIN 1 CGY 3


11th Jan

Pittsburgh at Washington
New Jersey at Edmonton

No bets today. Will probably take Devils for myself.

[Optional]

Record: 3-3 ev units

Tail v Tails
OTT 3 NJ 2 (OT)
WAS 2 SJ 5

Fade v Fades
MIN 1 CGY 3


12th Jan

Tails: NYR/STL/TOR/OTT/NAS
Fades: PIT/EDM/TB/BUF/CBJ/CAR

Montreal at Boston
Philadelphia at NY Islanders
Ottawa at NY Rangers
Carolina at Tampa Bay
Phoenix at Detroit
Vancouver at St. Louis
Colorado at Nashville
San Jose at Winnipeg
Minnesota at Chicago
Anaheim at Calgary
Dallas at Los Angeles

Damn... 3 home tails and only 1 fade playing today.

OTT v NYR for the watch list is it.

Bruins, Jets and Hawks for me today.

[Optional]

A bit late today... but for the record. (and of course on a day when almost every fade plays)

Record: 3-3 ev units

Tail v Tails
OTT 3 NJ 2 (OT)
WAS 2 SJ 5
OTT 3 NYR 0

Fade v Fades
MIN 1 CGY 3

13th Jan

Tails: TOR/OTT/NAS/VAN/BOS/PHI
Fades: PIT/TB/EDM/BUF/CBJ/MON/PHX

Tampa Bay at Washington
Phoenix at Columbus
Toronto at Buffalo
Pittsburgh at Florida
Anaheim at Edmonton


Toronto +110 over Buffalo

And Phx/Cbj for the watchlist.

Didn't have a bet today myself.

[Optional]

Leafs go down

Record: 3-4 -1.00 units

Tail v Tails
OTT 3 NJ 2 (OT)
WAS 2 SJ 5
OTT 3 NYR 0

Fade v Fades
MIN 1 CGY 3
PHX 3 CBJ 4

14th Jan

Tails: OTT/NAS/VAN/BOS/DET/PHI/WAS
Fades: TB/EDM/PHX/MON

Colorado at Dallas
New Jersey at Winnipeg
NY Rangers at Toronto
Ottawa at Montreal
Buffalo at NY Islanders
Boston at Carolina
San Jose at Columbus
Minnesota at St. Louis
Philadelphia at Nashville
Los Angeles at Calgary



Ottawa Senators* -102 vs Montreal Canadiens


Watching PHI/NAS

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Senators sneak home in a shootout.

Record: 4-4 ev units

Tail v Tails
OTT 3 NJ 2 (OT)
WAS 2 SJ 5
OTT 3 NYR 0
PHI 2 NAS 4

Fade v Fades
MIN 1 CGY 3
PHX 3 CBJ 4

15th Jan

Tails: OTT/NAS/VAN/DET/SJ/NJ/WAS
Fades: TB/EDM/MON/WPG/PHX/MIN

Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay
Carolina at Washington
NY Rangers at Montreal
San Jose at Chicago
Los Angeles at Edmonton
Anaheim at Vancouver


No bet today. But I think I like the 3 tails.


System isn't showing much of anything so far. Any bright ideas on a better way to identify teams going on a streak?