Went 3-0 on dogs yesterday, and i see a lot of value today. Majority of the plays are dogs, but im liking a few favorites too. Based on 5dimes lines...
EDM +157
NAS +100
PIT +125
VAN -135
CAL +170
Those 5 i locked in a bit earlier today.
I am also going to play...
NYR -125
PHI -150
WPG +125
...However, i am waiting because i think i could possibly get a better line a little later. If the lines start moving against me, i will take the team. PHI/NYR has been dropping a lot recently, so im hopeful it keeps going. Im also hoping that the Isles get some action and i can get a better line on the Jets today. We'll see, but im pretty happy with their prices now. Just hoping to maybe add a few more points to the line here and there.
Also, i know a lot of people here play regulation bets. IMO, they are absolutely not worth it...maybe once in a while if you pick your spots right, but i wouldnt constantly use regulation bets. You have to hit something like 60% long term just to break even on regulation bets. And you have to hit a lot higher for them to have a profit. Here is an example: Lets say you hit 53% and go 53-47 over 100 bets, at -110 odds. You'd come out with about a unit or two of profit. About 25%, recently 30%, of NHL games go to overtime. Lets say 25%. Assuming half the games that go to overtime, the team you bet on wins, thus you lose the regulation bet, but win the str8 up bet. That is 12.5 games, rounding up to 13. So 13 times over 100 games, you lose a regulation bet that would have otherwise won. So your record of 53-47 at -110 is now 40-60 at +150, the regulation line. At those odds, you break even, where as you would have won a few units betting moneyline. Thats why i dont think regulation bets are worth it at all. Yes, sometimes its nice to save some juice, but the juice you are saving isnt worth the 2 unit swing you get when your team goes to OT and wins. These numbers become much worse if a couple more games go to OT, or if your team wins in OT a few more times (which it probably would if you take more favorites). Regulation bets simply arent worth betting often, unless you are really picking your spots carefully.
EDM +157
NAS +100
PIT +125
VAN -135
CAL +170
Those 5 i locked in a bit earlier today.
I am also going to play...
NYR -125
PHI -150
WPG +125
...However, i am waiting because i think i could possibly get a better line a little later. If the lines start moving against me, i will take the team. PHI/NYR has been dropping a lot recently, so im hopeful it keeps going. Im also hoping that the Isles get some action and i can get a better line on the Jets today. We'll see, but im pretty happy with their prices now. Just hoping to maybe add a few more points to the line here and there.
Also, i know a lot of people here play regulation bets. IMO, they are absolutely not worth it...maybe once in a while if you pick your spots right, but i wouldnt constantly use regulation bets. You have to hit something like 60% long term just to break even on regulation bets. And you have to hit a lot higher for them to have a profit. Here is an example: Lets say you hit 53% and go 53-47 over 100 bets, at -110 odds. You'd come out with about a unit or two of profit. About 25%, recently 30%, of NHL games go to overtime. Lets say 25%. Assuming half the games that go to overtime, the team you bet on wins, thus you lose the regulation bet, but win the str8 up bet. That is 12.5 games, rounding up to 13. So 13 times over 100 games, you lose a regulation bet that would have otherwise won. So your record of 53-47 at -110 is now 40-60 at +150, the regulation line. At those odds, you break even, where as you would have won a few units betting moneyline. Thats why i dont think regulation bets are worth it at all. Yes, sometimes its nice to save some juice, but the juice you are saving isnt worth the 2 unit swing you get when your team goes to OT and wins. These numbers become much worse if a couple more games go to OT, or if your team wins in OT a few more times (which it probably would if you take more favorites). Regulation bets simply arent worth betting often, unless you are really picking your spots carefully.
Great job man. I understand your reluctance to start a thread and I don't blame you.
