Wallco NHL GOLD (+453 units in 6 years)

[Greg29]

I guess since you don't want to spend 10 minutes running the numbers before coming in here and shooting your mouth off, I will do it for you.

Counting the current season, the overall individual games record of NHL Gold is 1820-993. Just the (A) bet portion of these totals is 1204-683.

The way my system is currently designed, our overall profits since 2005-06 is +584 units, which includes this current season, and can be found in post #2446. Provided everyone bet every game on the proper line (M/L or +1 1/2), the whole way through, this is the actual amount they would be up (+/- a few units based on their actual odds they got with their book vs. the backtested odds. These differences would only be present in (C) bet losses, since all wins are +1 unit and (A) and (B) loss amounts are recouped with later wins). These are accurate, regardless of what your Google search told you about chase system backtest results not being real, that is assanine.

The way you are suggesting to play it is to flat bet all plays. We will assume average odds in this system to be -190 (a figure Grinder came up with a few weeks back, and this may even be a little generous).

1820 wins = +1820 units
993 losses @ -190 = -1886 units
Total: -66 units

Had you jast flat bet the (A) bets then moved on to next series:

1204 wins = +1204 units
683 losses @ -190 = -1297 units
Total: -93 units

I am using the -190 because I am not going back and retesting 9 years of data to prove a point I already know. As I said, prior to you being offended for some unknown reason, feel free to pinpoint the actual lines and let us know your findings. It takes a lot of balls to challenge somebody with no data to back them up, then call that person names when he challenges you back to prove your point. I guess you are not familiar with my track record of backtesting since you've only been around here for a couple weeks, so I know you didn't think that data would be spit in your face so fast. Have a nice day.

Btw, this argument actually discredits the system. You should make a profit on every game you bet. What you are showing me here is that you are losing on average on any single bet, but you have been so lucky on C bets that you managed to make money any way.

[macromia]

(and by long run I mean a real sample size, something like 20 seasons).

Yeah, you're mathematician, so you can't think logically, right? They all explained that to you. Maybe you're right and this system doesn't have any edge, but I have no clue what's your point, if 6 years is not enough for you and you wanna wait to "reasonable" sample size, you shouldn't bet on anything, I haven't seen any system that has 20+ years of studies and is proven by mathematicians to have any edge, so just let people play, it's their money. Wallco laid out all of his results and argument before posting his plays so you know what you're getting into. But you wanna be a smart-ass, so just wait ten more years and we'll see how this will turn out.
And stop calling everybody "clowns" when you can't even explain your "grind every game like its an A game, it should show a similar profit long term (if you adjust your unit size accordingly) and decrease the variance." system. "It shoud show" is a favourite math terminology I guess...

[Greg29]

Yeah, you're mathematician, so you can't think logically, right? They all explained that to you. Maybe you're right and this system doesn't have any edge, but I have no clue what's your point, if 6 years is not enough for you and you wanna wait to "reasonable" sample size, you shouldn't bet on anything, I haven't seen any system that has 20+ years of studies and is proven by mathematicians to have any edge, so just let people play, it's their money. Wallco laid out all of his results and argument before posting his plays so you know what you're getting into. But you wanna be a smart-ass, so just wait ten more years and we'll see how this will turn out.
And stop calling everybody "clowns" when you can't even explain your "grind every game like its an A game, it should show a similar profit long term (if you adjust your unit size accordingly) and decrease the variance." system. "It shoud show" is a favourite math terminology I guess...

you sir are a moron like most of the sheeps following the system blindly. good luck to you and your buddies when you stop godmoding every C bet and start losing 30 units on a regular basis. And yes, it will happen.

[KC Needs Hockey]

Shouldn't NY Islanders be ML and now +1.5 PL?

If it finishes @ -110 smaller -115, -120 and so on then yes ML will be the play. It is looking more like ML will be the play at the time of the post for Wallco the odds were at -105 and PL was the play.

[macromia]

I am not even following this system, so tell me how will I lose, ha? Another retarded argument by "mathematician". Show me the formula of me losing? You're assuming some shitty things, not me. And as I told you, you may be right about the system not having the edge and being flawed, but as we can see you can't even read, probably a "math thing". But I guess I can't even call you a math person, cause you can't show as any numbers, can't explain your flat stakes being profitable etc. So just stop talking until you can come up with some numbers, as they're most important to you.

[finnishfcuk]

I used to martingale roulette and found out quickly that it doesn't work cause, yeah it's possible to hit red 20 times in a row, unlikely but possible. When it comes to hockey I like think it's less of a chance of happening. These players aren't being paid millions to lose 15 games in a row, even on the puckline.

[macromia]

I used to martingale roulette and found out quickly that it doesn't work cause, yeah it's possible to hit red 20 times in a row, unlikely but possible. When it comes to hockey I like think it's less of a chance of happening. These players aren't being paid millions to lose 15 games in a row, even on the puckline.

Yeah, of course, the thing is that with roulette it's easier (faster) to test it and see that's not working, with hockey as Greg29 pointed out this "long term" can be real long (20 seasons is a lot of time) And if system is flawed, you'll lose all your money then...

[dlinx90]

(and by long run I mean a real sample size, something like 20 seasons).

You seem to not really know what you are talking about. I take it you don't follow hockey at all? If you did you would know that 20 seasons is a ridiculous sample size since hockey changes a lot in 20 years and the seasons aren't at all comparible on that scale. The league changes a lot with new collective bargaining agreements, new rules and the overall development of the sport. Therefore the league is completely different than it was in 1993.

You may very well be decent at math but please don't try to apply it to an area where you are clueless. Thanks.

[bgilic]

Why do you people engage in petty arguments. Not everyone will agree and there is no point to trying to change someone's point of view.

[Andy3568]

The Islanders finished at -103 to Washington's -107. The official bet is the +1.5 P/L.

[Wallco99]

Why do you people engage in petty arguments. Not everyone will agree and there is no point to trying to change someone's point of view.

You are right. He asked for numbers, I gave him numbers, he didn't like that his idea was wrong, so his response is to offend people. Seems a lot like another recent troll, so him too I will ignore. Good luck to the rest of us who actually do understand what we are doing.

[cmendo2005]

Logic?! Comecon Walco you can't win an argument with logic and facts duh

[Grinder12000]

There are trolls every year. They believe we are lambs but I pretty much believe that if things go south people will have free will to stop betting.

[bgilic]

Woohoo. Went with Islanders PL instead of ML bet at last second.

[Wallco99]

Woohoo. Went with Islanders PL instead of ML bet at last second.

PL was the play, Islanders were the dog.

[Wallco99]

Shouldn't NY Islanders be ML and now +1.5 PL?

In the future, please don't make posts like this during the day. If someone was to see this and bet the P/L thinking it was official, they would have been screwed. The rules clearly state what to do in close line games, yet every time a line moves from dog to favorite someone posts what the bet should be at that moment, as if the line at that time was relavent at all. Some days it happens 4 or 5 times, some saying M/L and some saying P/L. I will update lines on my post throughout the day whenever I get a chance. The plays in this thread are getting very confusing when several people post that lines are different, or more plays should be added. In the future, please do the following:

1. Do not quote my plays post in your post when you are asking a question about it.
2. Please don't state in your posts what the lines "Are at the moment" if they differ from what I have in my post and label it as though you are posting something official, when nothing is actually official until game time anyway.
3. If anyone thinks I missed a play please PM me and don't post it in thread. I realize today I missed Minnesota, but I think that was the first one. Almost every day someone is posting a comment that some team "SHOULD" be a play, and the majority of the time they are wrong. This then leads to four or five people responding to that person explaining why it isn't a play. This can be more easily sorted out in a PM to me, then I will make an official post if a game has been added or deleted, as well as update the plays post. And if credit is what you want, I will include in my post that individual's name who pointed it out to me.

The plays posts and rules are very clear and should be easy to understand by everyone. But with everyone trying to beat each other to the punch by questioning plays and stating my lines are incorrect at the moment, this thread is getting very cluttered and harder to follow for the newer players. Thanks to all, and hopefully Anaheim finishes out the night strong.

[CrazyCarl]

Thought I'd pop in and say hi.

Hi, everyone. Happy to see this system is doing well so far.

Wallco, don't be such a grouch all the time!

[Wallco99]

Thought I'd pop in and say hi.

Hi, everyone. Happy to see this system is doing well so far.

Wallco, don't be such a grouch all the time!

Trying not to be. Just trying to keep it running smooth.

[tipsadontlikehim]

arguments, arguments... anyway 3/3 last night

[Wallco99]

Wallco NHL GOLD
2013-14 System to date: 74-1 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +61.19 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0

(11/30/13):
#73 Anaheim (+1½) v1 (B)- Win
#74 N.Y. Islanders (+1½) v2 (A)- Win
#75 Minnesota (+1½) v2 (A)- Win


v1 Fades
(A) 42-12
(B) 10-2
(C) 2-0
Losses: None

v2 Plays
(A) 12-9
(B) 3-6
(C) 5-1
Losses: DET (-12.81 u)



Games for (12/1/13):
#76 Detroit @ Ottawa (M/L) v1 (A) (5:35 pm EST)


Do not place any wagers on teams unless you are sure your team is the dog or favorite. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the team we are betting on, regardless of v1 or v2. If you play the closer line games too early, you may be overpaying for a loss if you play the P/L and should have been on the M/L, or lose a game that you would have won had you been on the (+1½) instead of the M/L. We will always play the M/L on favorites and games when the line is (-110/-110) or (-105/-105), and always play the (+1½) if the team we are betting on is a dog. ALL results will be based on this principle. If it is a close line game, you may want to wait til closer to game time to place your wager so you know whether or not we are on the (+1½) or the (M/L). All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, or vice versa, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #2446 & #2447.

[Andy3568]

In the future, please don't make posts like this during the day. If someone was to see this and bet the P/L thinking it was official, they would have been screwed. The rules clearly state what to do in close line games, yet every time a line moves from dog to favorite someone posts what the bet should be at that moment, as if the line at that time was relavent at all. Some days it happens 4 or 5 times, some saying M/L and some saying P/L. I will update lines on my post throughout the day whenever I get a chance. The plays in this thread are getting very confusing when several people post that lines are different, or more plays should be added. In the future, please do the following:

1. Do not quote my plays post in your post when you are asking a question about it.
2. Please don't state in your posts what the lines "Are at the moment" if they differ from what I have in my post and label it as though you are posting something official, when nothing is actually official until game time anyway.
3. If anyone thinks I missed a play please PM me and don't post it in thread. I realize today I missed Minnesota, but I think that was the first one. Almost every day someone is posting a comment that some team "SHOULD" be a play, and the majority of the time they are wrong. This then leads to four or five people responding to that person explaining why it isn't a play. This can be more easily sorted out in a PM to me, then I will make an official post if a game has been added or deleted, as well as update the plays post. And if credit is what you want, I will include in my post that individual's name who pointed it out to me.

The plays posts and rules are very clear and should be easy to understand by everyone. But with everyone trying to beat each other to the punch by questioning plays and stating my lines are incorrect at the moment, this thread is getting very cluttered and harder to follow for the newer players. Thanks to all, and hopefully Anaheim finishes out the night strong.

I'm guilty of 2 and 3... 2 mainly because I think line movements as a reflection of who is betting on which team are pretty interesting, and 3 because I think it's to everyone's benefit to see if a bet is missed since they may not check in immediately prior to game time. I didn't do it for Minnesota because I figure 20 posts on that were enough, but I'll send a PM in the future if I think you got one wrong.

[Andy3568]

And I forgot to mention: Good job on going 3 - 0 last night. And for all the trolls:

[Wallco99]

You are actually one of the more reliable and genuine posters on here, I have no problem with you, or anyone for that matter. Just trying to keep the thread a little easier to understand for the newer players so the same questions aren't getting asked all the time. I believe your post about the lines was after the game started anyway, so no harm done with that. And I really do appreciate you seeing the missed play, but it really would be better in a PM because for some reason some people think I miss plays EVERY DAY, or quote my official post, then when I actually do make changes to my official plays post those changes won't appear in the post where another member has quoted mine, which means it will look like mine but have different information that mine actually does. No problems at all, but I think everyone would enjoy a less cluttered thread.

Also, not just to you but to everyone. If people are going to mention the line movements, then please say that these are the lines "for now" or "at the moment" and not type it as though I have the wrong lines posted and you are correcting me and make it appear as though it is officially the final line for the game, because you know the lines can go back the other way again, and they usually do. Yesterday, for example, NYI were mentioned to be a M/L play on several occasions however, they ended s a +1 1/2 play s I had listed in my post.

[JayRow]

Wallco I'm sure you know this, but I've observed over the years, the best threads tend to get hijacked by morons, trolls, annoying fvcks, etc... glad you put up with it and continue to give us winners

[KennyM10]

The problem with this babble is most people just want to place their wager and lines move all day.
Today another -300 loser?

[KennyM10]

When is the b on the islanders and Ottawa?

[I/O]

The problem with this babble is most people just want to place their wager and lines move all day.
Today another -300 loser?

It seems very apparent the system is tracked daily. Looks to me its not in the red. Feel free to find something else to do.

[knugen]

There are no B bet on ottawa. That is a FADE detroit serie. Next bet are when detroit have their next game.
Islanders serie i dont know anything about any B bet

[KennyM10]

Thanks

There are no B bet on ottawa. That is a FADE detroit serie. Next bet are when detroit have their next game.
Islanders serie i dont know anything about any B bet

[Wallco99]

Wallco NHL GOLD
2013-14 System to date: 74-1 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +61.19 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-1.23 units)

(12/1/13):
#76 Ottawa (M/L) v1 (A)- Loss


v1 Fades
(A) 42-13
(B) 10-2
(C) 2-0
Losses: None

v2 Plays
(A) 12-9
(B) 3-6
(C) 5-1
Losses: DET (-12.81 u)



There are no system plays for (12/2/13):
#76 Resumes v1 (B) on 12/4/13


Do not place any wagers on teams unless you are sure your team is the dog or favorite. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the team we are betting on, regardless of v1 or v2. If you play the closer line games too early, you may be overpaying for a loss if you play the P/L and should have been on the M/L, or lose a game that you would have won had you been on the (+1½) instead of the M/L. We will always play the M/L on favorites and games when the line is (-110/-110) or (-105/-105), and always play the (+1½) if the team we are betting on is a dog. ALL results will be based on this principle. If it is a close line game, you may want to wait til closer to game time to place your wager so you know whether or not we are on the (+1½) or the (M/L). All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, or vice versa, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #2446 & #2447.

[miss_sbets]

The problem with this babble is most people just want to place their wager and lines move all day.
Today another -300 loser?

What the blip is your problem, stupid blip?

[cmendo2005]

Slow time for hockey I liked it better when we were winning every day!

[Grinder12000]

Kenny is dim witted and believes -300 are automatic winners. LOL. A jealous loser it seems. -300 will win 75% of the time. Which means they will lose. . . . . I'll let Kenny play with is calculator to figure it out.

[Wallco99]

Wallco NHL GOLD
2013-14 System to date: 74-1 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +61.19 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-1.23 units)


v1 Fades
(A) 42-13
(B) 10-2
(C) 2-0
Losses: None

v2 Plays
(A) 12-9
(B) 3-6
(C) 5-1
Losses: DET (-12.81 u)



Games for (12/3/13):
#76 Resumes v1 (B) on 12/4/13
#77 Dallas (+1½) @ Chicago v1 (A) (8:05 pm EST)
#78 Pittsburgh @ N.Y. Islanders (+1½) v1 (A) (7:05 pm EST)


Do not place any wagers on teams unless you are sure your team is the dog or favorite. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the team we are betting on, regardless of v1 or v2. If you play the closer line games too early, you may be overpaying for a loss if you play the P/L and should have been on the M/L, or lose a game that you would have won had you been on the (+1½) instead of the M/L. We will always play the M/L on favorites and games when the line is (-110/-110) or (-105/-105), and always play the (+1½) if the team we are betting on is a dog. ALL results will be based on this principle. If it is a close line game, you may want to wait til closer to game time to place your wager so you know whether or not we are on the (+1½) or the (M/L). All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, or vice versa, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #2446 & #2447.

[Greg242]

Hey guys been following this system since the beginning of this year but this is my first doing so. I know it is not recommended of course but was curious opinions on increasing unit size at this point in the season? I was considering increasing my unit size by 50% and was wondering if anyone has past experience with increasing unit size half way through the season like this? Thanks