Mantorras' NHL 2011/2012 Over/Under System

[carlitosgarcia]

plays for today?

[mantorras77]

Over's are really killing us. I would advise to lay off them until they show promise but I will keep posting them for tracking purposes.

11/14/2011

Unders
No Play's

Overs
7:05pm - (B) PHILADELPHIA @ CAROLINA = OVER 5.5 (-115) (Risk $118.45 to win $103.00)


I will update figures when I get a chance.

[mantorras77]

Were there any losses overall or any problems with D bets on the overs during your span from last season?

No sir. In the 3 months I ran the Under's it went to a Game D 4 times and won all 4. In the 2 months I ran the Over's it went to a Game D 2 times and won both times.

What I think is happening is we're still too early in the season. Since my system is based on stats I think stats are still easily skewed at this time of the season compared to March where the team's statistical identities (offense/defense) are already established. Time will tell.

[carlitosgarcia]

cash it!

[Win89]

No sir. In the 3 months I ran the Under's it went to a Game D 4 times and won all 4. In the 2 months I ran the Over's it went to a Game D 2 times and won both times.

What I think is happening is we're still too early in the season. Since my system is based on stats I think stats are still easily skewed at this time of the season compared to March where the team's statistical identities (offense/defense) are already established. Time will tell.

Yea I agree it may just be too early in the season. Cashed the over tonight for a small portion of the [A] loss but on that note it was probably my last over at least till things get further along. I believe the unders haven't gone any deeper than a [C] so hope that keeps rolling.

[mantorras77]

11/14/2011

Unders
No Play's

Overs
7:05pm - (B) PHILADELPHIA @ CAROLINA = OVER 5.5 (-115) (Risk $118.45 to win $103.00)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UNDER'S = 12-0 ($+56.10)(+2.81 Units)
OVER'S = 13-2 ($-199.18)(-9.96 Units)

1 unit = $20

Labby Line for Unders
21-21-21-45
X-X-10-24
10-10 -10-10
10-10 -10-10

Labby Line for Overs (reshuffle)
48-48-48-49
X-36-37-X
10-10-10-74
10-10-10-62

11/15/2011

Unders
8:05pm - (B) DETROIT @ ST. LOUIS = UNDER 5 (+125) (Risk $34.00 to win $42.50)

Overs
8:05pm - (A) WASHINGTON @ NASHVILLE = OVER 5.5 (+110) (Risk $97.00 to win $106.70)

[jer_33]

I've been following a very simple system for O/U that has been hitting at better than 60% for both. I've been trying very hard to determine the factors around the "misses" and I'll say this.

1. Put a red flag on any play that has a team that has lost at least 3 games in "overs". A coach doesn't live long in this league if his team isn't scoring AND is allowing too many goals. Tactics/Style changes do happen, and more often than not the team will tighten up.

2. Goalies play a much larger role in overs/unders than most systems account for.

3. Backup goaltenders and afternoon games can be wildcards.

[mantorras77]

11/15/2011

Unders
8:05pm - (B) DETROIT @ ST. LOUIS = UNDER 5 (+125) (Risk $34.00 to win $42.50) - NICE $$$ HIT

Overs
8:05pm - (A) WASHINGTON @ NASHVILLE = OVER 5.5 (+110) (Risk $97.00 to win $106.70)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UNDER'S = 13-0 ($+98.60)(+4.93 Units)
OVER'S = 13-2 ($-296.18)(-14.81 Units)

1 unit = $20

Labby Line for Unders (reshuffle)
27-27-27-27
10-10 -10-10
10-10 -10-10
10-10 -10-10

Labby Line for Overs (reshuffle)
61-60-60-61
X-36-37-49
10-10-10-74
10-10-10-62

11/16/2011

Unders
10:35pm - (A) ANAHEIM @ LOS ANGELES = UNDER 5 (+105) (Risk $54.00 to win $56.70)

Overs
10:05pm - (B) CHICAGO @ VANCOUVER = OVER 5.5 (-105) (Risk $89.25 to win $85.00)

[mantorras77]

11/16/2011

Unders
10:35pm - (A) ANAHEIM @ LOS ANGELES = UNDER 5 (+105) (Risk $54.00 to win $56.70)

Overs
10:05pm - (B) CHICAGO @ VANCOUVER = OVER 5.5 (-105) (Risk $89.25 to win $85.00)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UNDER'S = 14-0 ($+155.30)(+7.77 Units)
OVER'S = 14-2 ($-211.18)(-10.56 Units)

1 unit = $20

Labby Line for Unders
X-27-27-X
10-10 -10-10
10-10 -10-10
10-10 -10-10

Labby Line for Overs
61-60-60-61
X-X-37-X
10-10-10-74
10-10-10-62

11/17/2011

Unders
No Play's

Overs
7:05pm - (A) COLUMBUS @ BOSTON = OVER 5.5 (-115) (Risk $140.30 to win $122.00)

[mantorras77]

I've been following a very simple system for O/U that has been hitting at better than 60% for both. I've been trying very hard to determine the factors around the "misses" and I'll say this.

1. Put a red flag on any play that has a team that has lost at least 3 games in "overs". A coach doesn't live long in this league if his team isn't scoring AND is allowing too many goals. Tactics/Style changes do happen, and more often than not the team will tighten up.

2. Goalies play a much larger role in overs/unders than most systems account for.

3. Backup goaltenders and afternoon games can be wildcards.

Hey bro, thanks for your tip's but I do have a question:

1. What do you mean by a team that has lost at least 3 games in "overs"? do you mean all season or in a row?

2. I didn't track goalies last season but I am tracking them this season to see what kind of affect they have.

3. In term's of afternoon games:
Last season= (UNDER's)8-3 (OVER's)6-1
This season= (UNDER's)0-0 (OVER's)1-2

No Major Affect but I will keep an eye on it.

Thanks again!

[Win89]

No unders?

[mantorras77]

No unders?

no kidding - well if you want an under, take today's over and turn it into an under

[Win89]

Lol yea chances are it'll come through sooner than later. After two straight overs it's about that time.

[Win89]

no kidding - well if you want an under, take today's over and turn it into an under

Lol yea chances are it'll come through sooner or later. After two overs in a row it's about that time.

[mantorras77]

Lol yea chances are it'll come through sooner or later. After two overs in a row it's about that time.

Not only that but Boston has played in 7 straight over's...they won all 7 but I think they're overdue for an under.

[Mitchthecrane]

But are they really due for an under against a team like Columbus? I feel like boston will just steamroll them past 5.5

[mantorras77]

11/18/2011

No play's today!

[Win89]

11/18/2011

No play's today!

Killing me

JM got me stressing as well. Rough day in the betting world.

[mantorras77]

Killing me

JM got me stressing as well. Rough day in the betting world.

Go to the gym and work out that stress! That's what I do!

[skycity]

Go to the gym and work out that stress! That's what I do!

That's all we need in a while buddy, take it easy!

[mantorras77]

11/18/2011

No Play's
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UNDER'S = 14-0 ($+155.30)(+7.77 Units)
OVER'S = 14-2 ($-351.48)(-17.57 Units)

1 unit = $20

Labby Line for Unders
X-27-27-X
10-10 -10-10
10-10 -10-10
10-10 -10-10

Labby Line for Overs
61-60-60-131
X-X-37-70
10-10-10-74
10-10-10-62

11/18/2011

Unders
8:05pm - (A) ST. LOUIS @ MINNESOTA = UNDER 5 (+108) (Risk $54.00 to win $58.32)

Overs
7:05pm - (B) BOSTON @ NY = OVER 5.5 (+110) (Risk $107 to win $117.70)

[Win89]

Big Day!

[mantorras77]

11/19/2011

Unders
8:05pm - (A) ST. LOUIS @ MINNESOTA = UNDER 5 (+108) (Risk $54.00 to win $58.32)

Overs
7:05pm - (B) BOSTON @ NY = OVER 5.5 (+110) (Risk $107 to win $117.70)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UNDER'S = 14-0 ($+155.30)(+7.77 Units)
OVER'S = 15-2 ($-233.78)(-11.69 Units)

1 unit = $20

Labby Line for Unders
X-27-27-X
10-10 -10-10
10-10 -10-10
10-10 -10-10

Labby Line for Overs (reshuffle)
78-78-78-78
X - X - X - X
10-10-10-74
10-10-10-62

11/20/2011

Unders
No Play's

Overs
Game 1: 5:05pm - (A) TORONTO @ CAROLINA = OVER 5.5 (-105) (Risk $163.80 to win $156.00)
Game 2: 9:05pm - (A or B) OTTAWA @ VANCOUVER = OVER 5.5 (-107)

if Game 1 win's bet Game 2 to win $156
if Game 1 lose's bet Game 2 to win $164


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Interesting note: If I added a "back-up goalie" filter to the Over's where I would disqualify a game if a back-up goalie was involved, since the beginning the system record would be 12-1 and we would be up +4.61 Units !! Will continue to track this.

[Win89]

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Interesting note: If I added a "back-up goalie" filter to the Over's where I would disqualify a game if a back-up goalie was involved, since the beginning the system record would be 12-1 and we would be up +4.61 Units !! Will continue to track this.

Are you now applying the back-up goalie filter or just tracking?

[carlitosgarcia]

plays today?

i like de under in the boston and montreal game.. but the over still dont know.. overs havent been very good..

[jer_33]

Hey bro, thanks for your tip's but I do have a question:

What do you mean by a team that has lost at least 3 games in "overs"? do you mean all season or in a row?
Thanks again!

Looking at at least a 3 game losing streak teamed with a streak of 3 or more overs.

[mantorras77]

11/20/2011

Unders
No Play's

Overs
Game 1: 5:05pm - (A) TORONTO @ CAROLINA = OVER 5.5 (-105) (Risk $163.80 to win $156.00)
Game 2: 9:05pm - (B) OTTAWA @ VANCOUVER = OVER 5.5 (-107) (Risk $175.48 to win $164.00)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UNDER'S = 14-0 ($+155.30)(+7.77 Units)
OVER'S = 15-2 ($-233.78)(-11.69 Units)

1 unit = $20

Labby Line for Unders
X-27-27-X
10-10 -10-10
10-10 -10-10
10-10 -10-10

Labby Line for Overs (conservative reshuffle)
78-78-78-78
82-87- X-82
98-10-10-74
10-10-10-62

11/21/2011

Unders
No Play's

Overs
7:05pm - (C) CAROLINA @ PHILADELPHIA = OVER 6 (+115) (Risk $74 to win $85.10)

NOTE: The over's have sucked beyond belief. To keep their betting amounts from getting ridiculous I'm going to start betting more conservative on them.


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Interesting note: If I added a "back-up goalie" filter to the Over's where I would disqualify a game if a back-up goalie was involved, since the beginning the system record would be 12-1 and we would be up +4.61 Units !! Will continue to track this.

[mantorras77]

plays today?

i like de under in the boston and montreal game.. but the over still dont know.. overs havent been very good..

That's a tough one to call but good luck with it!

[mantorras77]

Are you now applying the back-up goalie filter or just tracking?

Right now just tracking it. I'd like to narrow down the Over selection's by the use of filter's if possible.

[Win89]

Right now just tracking it. I'd like to narrow down the Over selection's by the use of filter's if possible.

Although no losses for unders, I would think that goalie filter would help maintain the unders efficiency by keeping the better goalie within the plays.

[Win89]

Uh Oh [C] bet on overs!
2-0 at end of 1st, we'll see.

[mantorras77]

Although no losses for unders, I would think that goalie filter would help maintain the unders efficiency by keeping the better goalie within the plays.

I'm keeping track of that as well.

[mantorras77]

11/21/2011

Unders
No Play's

Overs
7:05pm - (C) CAROLINA @ PHILADELPHIA = OVER 6 (+115) (Risk $74 to win $85.10)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UNDER'S = 14-0 ($+155.30)(+7.77 Units)
OVER'S = 15-2 ($-233.78)(-11.69 Units)

1 unit = $20

Labby Line for Unders
X-27-27-X
10-10 -10-10
10-10 -10-10
10-10 -10-10

Labby Line for Overs (conservative reshuffle)
78-78-78-78
82-87- X-82
98-10-10-74
10-10-10-62

11/22/2011

Unders
7:35pm - (A) LOS ANGELES @ ST. LOUIS = UNDER 5 (+105) (Risk $54 to win $56.70) (back-up @ starter)

Overs
7:35pm - (C) TORONTO @ TAMPA BAY = OVER 5.5 (-118) (Risk $87.32 to win $74.00) (starter @ starter)

[Win89]

Should we be hesitant towards your goalie notes or play through?

[mantorras77]

Should we be hesitant towards your goalie notes or play through?

For now, i'm playing all under's regardless of back-up's or starter's and the over's we want starter's