NHL 6-Pack Thursday

MakeMoney · 10-13-11, 02:28 PM

LT, just want to say thanks for your contributions to the forum. I regularly check to see what your take is on a lot of games, and I usually find that we have the same logic behind our picks, which is reassuring for me haha. That being said, I dont know about the canucks tonight. Being from Vancouver i obviously follow the Canucks closely, and the way things ended last year have lead me to be concerned about the start of this year. With Kesler out and a short off season I can't help but think the Canucks are going to be sluggish out of the gates, and the way they've played so far has done nothing to change my mind. However the Sedins are the best tandem in the league and at +120 I can see how you are attracted to the value. Just don't be surprised if the Canucks not only lose tonight but go on to have a sub par first couple months.

PStrangers · 10-13-11, 02:48 PM

I agree with you on the Flames and Kings both look good tonight. My model shows a 59.6% chance that the Kings win and a 53.9% chance that the Flames win (and given they are +110, thats positive EV).

I'm laying off the Canucks game since that game was projected at 49-51 Wings.

But my question is on why you like Oilers here? My model shows 64.3% chance that the Wilds win. Now I did not bet the Wilds though, since at -160 they need to win 61.6% of the time to make the play profitable, and I don't trust my model that much... yet.

So I am trying to improve my model (currently based 100% on past-performance and stats). So I would be interested in hearing what factors made you choose the Oilers. My model has undergone alot of 'tweeks' during the start of the season, I am sure it still needs some.

It does predict that the Oilers/Wild game has a 64% chance of going under 5.5, which is the play I made on the game.