I ran a thread last year, Home PL Trend, tracking teams on homestands of 3 or more games, that seemed as though it could be profitable if done right. On 1st games of homestands, Puckline plays went 50-102 (33%) over the course of the season, 56% of series had a PL cover within the 1st 2 games, and 66% within 3. Backtesting the previous year showed that 37% of teams covered the PL in the first game, and the home team covered the PL at least once in the three game home stand 71%.
I am going to be making bets on, and tracking a few things this season. First, I am going to keep track once again of the 1st games of homestands, and be flat betting each one. Second, I will be running a 3 line labby, one for each game of a homestand. I think that in the case of a home team being an underdog in any given game, I will play the ML and not the PL. Third, which I haven't completely figured out yet, is going to be a line on each team. It won't be a labby, and not a chase, I will play this one by ear, and tweek it as I go.
There is a spreadsheet attached, for anyone interested, that has all homestand series of 3 or more games for the season. I believe it is complete and accurate, but if anyone spots any errors, please let me know.
Ideas and suggestions are always welcome. To anyone who plans on tailing, or fading for that matter, please do so at your own risk, and best of luck. To everyone, interested in this thread or not, I hope you have an enjoyable, and profitable season.
I am going to be making bets on, and tracking a few things this season. First, I am going to keep track once again of the 1st games of homestands, and be flat betting each one. Second, I will be running a 3 line labby, one for each game of a homestand. I think that in the case of a home team being an underdog in any given game, I will play the ML and not the PL. Third, which I haven't completely figured out yet, is going to be a line on each team. It won't be a labby, and not a chase, I will play this one by ear, and tweek it as I go.
There is a spreadsheet attached, for anyone interested, that has all homestand series of 3 or more games for the season. I believe it is complete and accurate, but if anyone spots any errors, please let me know.
Ideas and suggestions are always welcome. To anyone who plans on tailing, or fading for that matter, please do so at your own risk, and best of luck. To everyone, interested in this thread or not, I hope you have an enjoyable, and profitable season.
Doesn't this mean the fade went 67%? 
