TomJSports Hockey Picks - NHL, Elitserien, etc.

[TomJSports]

Hey, I figured I'd throw together a hockey thread. Typically make money in Bundesliga, NHL, SEL, and tennis and lose it all in other leagues. I'll try to keep my picks going, but my football thread and Bundesliga thread seem to take a lot of time, so hopefully I can keep it up. I follow NHL, Elitserien, and of course, Deutsche Eishockey Liga. Somewhat follow Czech Extraliga, SM-liiga, Österreichische Eishockey-Liga, and Swiss NLA. Used to go to NLA games all the time. ZSC Lions!

Basically my bets typically come in three flavours, 5x, 10x, 20x. These correspond to 0.5%, 1%, and 2% of my br, respectively. So if anything is a different number, it's an easy conversion. However, this also means my numbers are fluid on a day-to-day basis.

My teams are Flyers, Luleå HF, EHC München, ZSC Lions, and have an affinity for the Habs and Jackets, so call me out if I'm being a homer. Plays obviously pick up as the season progresses.

[TomJSports]

NHL Exhibition:
Flyers win -120 10x
Sabres win EV 10x

Flyers roster looking like:

Forwards:
Andreas Nodl - Danny Briere - Jakub Voracek
Scott Hartnell - Claude Giroux - Tomas Hyka
Max Talbot - Brayden Schenn - Matt Read
Ben Holmstrom - Blair Betts - Jody Shelley

Defense:
Kimmo Timonen - Erik Gustafsson
Oskars Bartulis - Braydon Coburn
Kevin Marshall - Andrej Meszaros

Goalies:
Starter: Ilya Bryzgalov
Backup: Jason Bacashihua

I like this Flyers roster beating the Leafs' full NHL roster, and Toronto is playing a worse roster today than yesterday, so this was a no brainer for me.

And I'm not going to bother mentioning why I picked Buffalo, when aznbluff basically said exactly why I picked them this morning.

Hopefully my first public picks end up well, expecting 0-2, though. , so I guess it has to even out?

Good luck in your plays tonight, boys!

[Dharmonize]

I'll keep an eye on your Elitserien and NLA (the league of "overs" from what I have seen in previous years) picks later in the season... German hockey league is too much for me to follow with the Eisbaren being the only team I can recognize GL with the thread and picks!

[TomJSports]

I'll keep an eye on your Elitserien and NLA (the league of "overs" from what I have seen in previous years) picks later in the season... German hockey league is too much for me to follow with the Eisbaren being the only team I can recognize GL with the thread and picks!

Thanks, bud. Yeah, DEL isn't the best talent, NLA is a much better league. NLA is certainly a league of overs, SEL you need to watch a little more closely.

In other news, of course my leans on CBJ and PIT hit Weird, but touching to see Datsyuk out there in #24. Malkin looks fantastic, even as a Flyers fan, I'm glad to see he recovered well.

[TomJSports]

Also awesome to see an old ZSC Lions boy get named as the first Swiss captain in NHL history.

[TomJSports]

NHL Exhibition:
Anaheim -0.5 +120 10x

Wouldn't call it chasing the Flyers loss, just yet, but I like a lot vs. who San Jose is putting out there. Anything goes in preseason, and I hate rooting against Greiss.

[TomJSports]

Oops, 'image' was supposed to be a link: Anaheim's lineup

[Fl6j66]

What do you think about Linköping today?

[TomJSports]

Season is young, but with how fast Söderberg and Johansson (is Magnus ever going to age?) are out of the gate, I'd easily take Linköping. Hadelöv isn't having a great start in net for Skellefteå. I'd say that's the easiest match to call right now.

I also don't have lines, yet. (sigh) But tomorrow should be a good day for road teams: Djurgården at Luleå, AIK at Modo, and Färjestad at HV71. But as always, early in the season is tough to call with a lot of players over at NHL training camps.

[Fl6j66]

Place where i'm going to play has:

HV 71-Farjestad
1- 2.2
x- 4.1
2- 2.42
Linkoping-Skelleftea
1- 1.9
x- 4.2
2 2.88
Lulea-Djurgarden
1- 2.15
x- 4.1
2- 2.49
MoDo-AIK
1- 2.1
x- 4.15
2- 2.54
Timra-Vaxjo
1- 1.95
x- 4.2
2- 2.78

(regulation only)

[TomJSports]

Figured Linköping would be the heavy favourite.

Definitely some value in Växjö/Timrå draw through regulation, but I would think Timrå takes it. Djurgården's roster should decimate Luleå's, but Luleå has serious home ice advantage in the far north. I'm probably one of the few high on that AIK squad. And I'm looking forward to seeing Rob Schremp with Modo.

But looking at those numbers, Linköping is the best play, and maybe something on Färjestad with HV71 spiraling downhill the past couple of seasons.

[Fl6j66]

I'll go with Linkoping

[TomJSports]

Elitserien
Linköping PK EV 10x

Wow, Linköping PK at even money, I'm all over that.

[Dharmonize]

Linköping has been screwing me all over everytime I decide to take them. Have to stay away from it. They play poorly whenever I take them and are absolutely great whenever I go against them. But I like Farjestads and AIK. Although AIK have been playing in the Elitserien for only a year or so, so I still can´t quite figure out what to expect from them. But Farjestads is almost an automatic play for me anytime I can get them at + money.

[TomJSports]

Linköping is my only play because I can't take road teams early on until teams have shown they're poor at home or bad on the road. That said, Färjestad is a solid play if HV71 continues from last year (looks like they are). AIK was one of the great teams and has a proud history, I think they want to get back to it and start attracting top talent again. Get intensity of the Rivalry back with Djurgården and extend the Tvillingderbyt to hockey.

[TomJSports]

Can't believe Luleå is up 3-0 on a good Djurgården, they really are a great home team. Skellefteå is up 1-0 on Linköping mid second, I doubt Linköping gets shutout here. HV71 is somehow up 2-1 on Färjestad...

[Dharmonize]

Toast... At least the AIK paid for the Farjestads loss. I know it´s a team with great history, but somehow had played only division for several years before returning to Elitserien last year. But I suppose it doesn´t necessarily have to be about talent, sometimes it´s about lacking sponsors or money in general.

[TomJSports]

Yeah, that was the problem with AIK, lack of money to invest in getting the good players from Stockholm and surrounding.

What a day in SEL, though. Certainly did not see a 6 goal game from HV71. Or a 5 goal outburst from my team. May continue laying off. Would've been 2-3 or 1-4 on my leans; have to wait until things become solidified.

[Dharmonize]

Yeah, tough day today. I'll give it lets say another week before I start seriously pounding it. It's just that I'm already fed up with bases and eager for some hockey action. But definitely not touching NHL preseason. Just silent observation GL for now and see you deeper in the season

[Fl6j66]

[TomJSports]

NHL:
Penguins -1.5 v. Panthers +185 10x

Despite missing Malkin and Crosby tonight, I like the Pens to get a good win against the Panthers. Panthers have a lot to prove, but the Pens have done well on the road thus far and have a big home opener. And surely, The Flower will show up big at home. Even with the odds, I still like it a lot.

[TomJSports]

NHL:
Penguins -1.5 v. Panthers +185 10x +18.5

Good to start off with a win. Everytime the lead dropped to one, the Pens had an answer. Florida impressed me, but not enough to think that defense and keeping can take them anywhere. Probably should be a solid over team.

NHL Season: 1-0-0 +18.5

[TomJSports]

NHL
Flyers/Canucks u4.5 +250 risk 2x to win 5x

Small play tonight, but Bobby Lou typically does well on the road against tough teams and Bryz will be fantastic in his home debut. I like both teams defensemen and their team defense. Both have above average offense, but I like this to be a defensive matchup and a goaltending duel. Good luck tonight!

[TomJSports]

NHL
Flyers/Canucks u4.5 +250 risk 2x to win 5x -2

Ehh, at least they kept it close to the under with a 5-4 score... Better luck next time...

NHL Season: 1-0-1 +16.5

[TomJSports]

NHL
MTL -1.5 +250 risk 5x

I had to lock this in early. Flames are looking like an awfully bad squad this year, and Price is looking solid. Despite the injuries the Habs have already incurred, I really like the Habs to win this big. Wouldn't hold it past Price to start off at home with a shutout. Centre Bell will be crazy!!

[TomJSports]

Likely won't play these, but here are my leans for Elitserien:

Skellefteå/Luleå u4.5 EV - Luleå is a very tight defensive team; Skellefteå is good on D, too
Frölunda win v. HV71 EV - Frölunda is off to a great start and at home, but is against a dangerous HV71 squad, but I think Andersen
silences them
Färjestad/Timrå u4.5 +110 - League's cellar dwellers...would be worried these matches sometimes become goalfests

[TomJSports]

NHL
Predators -1.5 v. Coyotes +225 to win 5x
Blackhawks -1.5 v. Jets +145 to win 5x
Canucks/Wings u4.5 +320 to win 5x

Predators should demolish a pathetic Coyotes team at home. Same goes with Blackhawks at home against the Jets, even with Emery playing. I also think Alain keeps the Canucks as a tighter ship against the Wings and they don't score as much. I like the massive odds, so I'm giving it a shot with low risk.

[TomJSports]

Likely won't play these, but here are my leans for Elitserien:

Skellefteå/Luleå u4.5 EV - Luleå is a very tight defensive team; Skellefteå is good on D, too
Frölunda win v. HV71 EV - Frölunda is off to a great start and at home, but is against a dangerous HV71 squad, but I think Andersen
silences them
Färjestad/Timrå u4.5 +110 - League's cellar dwellers...would be worried these matches sometimes become goalfests

Ehh would've been 2-1, with the Skellefteå/Luleå match sneaking in at 5.

Preds, Hawks, and Habs are letting me down big time tonight.

[TomJSports]

NHL
MTL -1.5 +250 risk 5x -5
Predators -1.5 v. Coyotes +225 to win 5x -2.22
Blackhawks -1.5 v. Jets +145 to win 5x -3.45
Canucks/Wings u4.5 +320 to win 5x +5

Blackhawks flirted with a two goal win, but Nashville and Les Habitants annoyed me. Still positive, which is good. Things will get going.

NHL today 1-0-3 -5.67
NHL Season: 2-0-4 +10.93

[TomJSports]

NHL
Ducks -1.5 v. Sharks +325 risk 5x
Ducks ML v. Sharks +120 to win 5x

While anything can happen in a rivalry game, I don't like the Sharks without Havlat and Marleau and needing to start Greiss. Throw in that Selänne, Getzlaf, and Perry have get to get going and should in this one, and this should be a big home opener for the Ducks. Biggest thing that scares me is the post Europe hangover the Ducks may have, but I think they hold onto this one against an injury-depleted Sharks team.

[TomJSports]

NHL
Ducks -1.5 v. Sharks +325 risk 5x -5
Ducks ML v. Sharks +120 to win 5x +5

Can't believe the Sharks didn't get that second goal. Perry had a solid shot at the ENG, too!

NHL today 1-0-1 0
NHL Season: 3-0-5 +10.93[/quote]

[TomJSports]

NHL
Capitals -1.5 v. Senators +130 risk 10x
Capitals/Senators o6 +110 to win 5x
Flyers/Kings u4.5 +195 to win 5x
Canadiens/Avalanche u4.5 +220 risk 5x
Pittsburgh -1.5 v. Buffalo +260 to win 10x
Leafs/Flames o6.5 +140 to win 5x

The Capitals should destroy the Sens. They're pretty healthy, and the Sens are just awful. I expect the Sens to at least get two, but allow 4, 5, or 6.

After the high scoring match against the Canucks, I expect the Flyers to tone it down a lot with the return of Mike Richards. Kings are also a great defensive team with a great keeper. Bryz and Quick keep this one low.

After Price got shelled by the Flames, I think he'll get a bounce back against a team that's due for a let down after scoring 7 against Ottawa. Varly has played well, and the team D around him has been great, too. I like this as another low scorer.

People still don't give Pittsburgh credit even without Malkin and Crosby, and that baffles me. Bylsma led the team sans the two stars to the playoffs last year, and James Neal is finally showing up on the scoresheet. I like them a lot against a tired Sabres team that played the night before and is starting Enroth.

Leafs and Flames have both scored a lot and allowed a lot in this young season. I expect this trend to continue.

[TomJSports]

NHL
Washington TT o3.5 v. Ottawa +110 to win 5x

Throwing another play on the Caps game. Now I fully expect that one to bury me.

[TomJSports]

NHL
Florida/Tampa o5.5 EV 5x

Garon v. Theodore, enough said.

[TomJSports]

NHL
Stars -1.5 v. Jackets +220 to win 5x
Sharks -1.5 v. Blues +195 to win 5x

I like the Stars and Kari Lehtonen against the anemic Blue Jackets. Hopefully the Jackets pull it off, but my money is against them.

The Sharks just got shutout and are playing Brian Elliot and the Blues at home. I don't care if Niemi or Greiss gets the start, no way Brian Elliot gets a win against the Sharks, and the Sharks will be playing tough after being shutout.