TB is the play tonight

[hockey216]

boston opened at -155? . no wonder it already moved to -145. it should be a pick-em. oddsmakers are overvaluing home ice. home ice has meant almost nothing in this playoffs. Tampa Bay has much better offense, better forecheck, better neutral zone play, better coaching, better power play, better puck movement on offense, better penalty kill, better hitting. Unless Thomas single-handedly wins the game for the bruins, they are going to choke. just like they did last year. and just like they did the year before. Remember, boston blew game 7 at home last year vs the flyers. they also blew game 7 at home 2 years ago vs the hurricanes. don't fall into the trap of home ice. home ice has meant nothing in the playoffs this year. the nhl is not like basketball. TB is the play tonight.

I personally think its slightly better than a coinflip for TB... maybe 55/45. thus, the +130 has a great positive expected value. Thomas is the only reason bruins are still in the series. TB is the play.

I am a realist. i tell it like i see it. That being said, I am still a Bruins fan. Go Bruins!!!

[Mike Huntertz]

If it's all about value, then TB is the play.
Tied 3-3
Goals 21-20
Kinda even, eh?

GL

[BuckeyeT]

Tampa is deff the play for tonight.

+130 is nice value and Roloson is 7-0 in elimination games so gotta roll with the lightning here.

[mart59a]

Tampa Bay for me...Most of my friends are Bruins fans and I just want them to shut up.

[hockey216]

If it's all about value, then TB is the play. Tied 3-3 Goals 21-20 Kinda even, eh? GL

exactly what i was thinking. tampa much better team, but bos has better goalie. either way, it's tied 3-3 and goals are 21-20. that sounds pretty close to a coinflip to me. so if its 50/50, why is bos -145? for a coinflip, take the +130 you have positive expected value. That's assuming that it is a coinflip, of course. if you think boston is a 70/30 favorite, then they would be the play. but i don't see boston as a 70/30 favorite or even a 60/40 favorite. they are a coinflip at best. and that's only because of thomas. so, this doesnt mean tampa guaranteed to win tonight. but if you have a 50% chance of winning, and are getting +130, there's clear value there in the longrun. it's like if we were to bet a coinflip. If its tails, i pay you 10 dollars. but if its heads, you pay me 13 dollars. Who would win in the longrun? me, of course. i am going to lose just as much as you will. but the added value i get from 13/10 odds will make me a winner.

now, some people might disagree and give some arguments for why boston is a 70/30 favorite. and if you see it that way, then bos would be better play. for a -145 line, you need to win 60% to break even. so to have positive expected value, you'd need to be in the 60-something percent range with your certainty of boston winning. i just dont see boston as a 65/35 favorite. i dont. for the reasons listed above, i just dont see it.

if you see lightning as having a 43% chance or better (+130) of winning this game, they are the play. if you see boston as having greater than a 60% chance of winning, they are the play. and if its in the middle (57/43, 58/42, 59/41), you are losing equity no matter what side you bet.

In conclusion, i just don't see Tampa bay's % chance of winning in the 30's. I just don't see them being such a lopsided 65/35 dog. I put them at least at a coinflip. maybe upwards of 55/45. either way, the equity is on tampa because they do have at least a 43% chance of winning.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Totally agree with you man. I'm pretty heavy on the Lightning tonight.

[hockey216]

Totally agree with you man. I'm pretty heavy on the Lightning tonight.

i wouldn't go heavy. i'm not even saying the lightning are a high percentage play. i just think they have equity because they are more than 43% to win, which is the bar for a +130 ML. Pure line value. if a team was +300, and they were 35% chance to win... i'd still play it. because, sure, you're going to lose more than you'll win... but the times you win will compensate that because you're getting 3/1 odds. bruins could win this game. thomas could shut them down. maybe they could get their pk back. It seems from the last game that bruins can beat the 1-3-1. you beat it by going to one side of boards, drawing everybody to your side, including D who's designed to get the puck from the dump, then you dump it opposite corner. you have to dump opposite corner against 1-3-1. if bruins do that tonight they have a shot. that is, of course, if tampa plays the 1-3-1 tonight. they mix it up. i've seen a 2-1-2, a 1-2-2. they are unpredictable. tampas better team, but sure, bruins could win. but the +130 ML makes tampa the play because, to show profit, you only need a 43% chance to win instead of a 60% chance to win. who wins? doesn't matter. this is an equity play on tampa bay... unless you don't think they have a 43% chance of winning. lol.

im still a bruins fan and rooting for the bruins. but tampa obviously smarter play. home ice has meant almost nothing in the playoffs so far. Go Bruins!

[thejrichshow85]

boston Bruins win 4-2

[Vortexx00]

Best of luck tonight

[phxcoyotes]

Lets go TB

[Fayt13]

It seems like everyone on here is on Tampa Bay and I'm on Tampa Bay. Might as well kiss my money goodbye

[Wiscsportsfan92]

Toss up here.. I really liked how TB responded last game and somethings just not working for BOS

[svenodds]

Liking Tampa tonight
BOL

[BritneysBestBets]

I agree with hockey216 on tonight's game #7 featuring Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Boston Bruins . The reasons you stated are strong enough warrant a Tampa victory. However i believe the fate of this game will lie mostly on the goaltenders. As we know Tim Thomas can be sensational and Roloson has proved his worth in elimination games. With odds of 2.30, this bet is to good not to take. Take Tampa Bay over Boston @ 2.30.

[bigsmitty]

If BOS wins it should be seen as a disgrace and a failure for the new "skill and speed" brand of hockey the NHL said they wanted to create. A VAN/TB Stanley Cup would be one of the best to show hockey for the sport it can be at the professional level. I'm with TB tonight but I have a sinking feeling that things are aligned for BOS to clutch and grab their way to victory, only to be crushed by VAN. Cheers

[Jones10]

Boston went from -155 to -160 at my book now. Better for me who likes Tampa now at +140

[ColdBeerHere]

I think this one is really a coin flip....TB might be ever so slightly better...Boston has home ice...So I would say it about evens out...I'm thinking this one goes to OT......dramatic !

[ExposingLines247]

do you people even watch hockey??????

[face]

i hope the lightning win because lightning/vancouver matchup would be awesome. bruins are a little boring.

[drgonzo111]

Taking Tampa as well, but I'm starting to get nervous...always love game 7s, even as a neutral fan.

[hockey216]

tampa bay 4 boston 2

[donkdown]

lol it moved back up yet the pubic% is all coming in on Tampa!! Be careful my friend!!

[Yoinkerz]

tampa all the wayyyyy!!! gogo!1

[Lint Pockets]

NICE CALL YOU F***ING CLOWN! Boston is winning the cup this year!!!

[hockey216]

NICE CALL YOU F***ING CLOWN! Boston is winning the cup this year!!!

1st of all, im not a clown, and i never said tampa was sure to win. I took TB because i saw value in +130. any time you take an underdog ML, you're going to lose most of the time. i knew that. so why would you bet them? you take an underdog for the value you get from the odds, in this case +130. So, TB could only have a 44% chance of winning, and this would still be a profitable bet. i said boston isn't heavy enough to be a -150 favorite. Sure, boston could win that game. i knew that. i wasn't saying tampa was heavily favored to win. I never said i really liked tampa bay to win. i just said that when you have a game thats probably close to 50/50 in regards to who wins, taking +130 has a long run positive expected value. That doesn't mean tampa was highly likely to win. i just said its about 50/50, and gave a slight lean to tampa because of special teams (powerplay, penalty kill). Fortunately for the bruins, there were not a lot of penalties. If Bruins had taken penalties, they would probably have lost this game. If tampa took penalties, it wouldn't matter because bruins cant score on the powerplay. Also, the game was close to 50/50. both teams had some good chances, goaltending was great. And dont forget, with 8 minutes left in the 3rd period, we had a tie game. Whoever scored first would have a heavy edge to win, with the limited time remaining. You're telling me you'd bet -150 that bruins would score first?

2nd of all, vancouver will probably win the cup. bruins have their work cut out for them against Vancouver. There's a reason the series line is -220. bruins powerplay is pathetic, and vancouvers powerplay is great. bruins do not have a big goaltending edge in this series, which is mostly what has carried them through the playoffs. Luongo is not quite as good as thomas, but he is almost as good. Luongo is playing great right now. he made 52 saves in game 5.