This should be a hard fought series. The Penguins come in having beaten the defending Eastern Conference Champion Ottawa Senators and a tough Rangers team. While the Flyers have beaten the upstart and talented Capitals along with the number one seeded Montreal Canadiens.
Penguins Defense vs Flyers Forwards
The Penguins defense is a good group that has a lot of balance. The Orpik/Gonchar pairing is solid having both an offensive and defensive presence. The other two groups are up in the air, it could be Scuderi/Whitney and Gill/Letang, as it was in the regular season, or Whitney/Letang and Scuderi/Gill, as it was last series. If the Penguins defensive pairings are the same as last series they will have trouble in their own zone. Gill/Scuderi will not be able to clear the zone, while Whitney/Letang will not be able to clear the front of the net. Either way, they must finish their checks, and make sure the Flyers pay for standing in front. The Flyers score a lot of goals from just outside the crease. Their scoring depth is great, having six 20-goal scorers, and that is not including Umberger who is on fire this playoffs. Mike Knuble always scores against the Penguins, and he scores big goals. The Flyers forwards were not able to posses the puck that much last series against Montreal. If they are going to score they need to cycle down low, get shots on Fleury from close, and draw penalties. The Flyers forwards will try to hit Gonchar as much as possible, and get him off his game. Look for Therrien to use the Scuderi/Whitney and Gill/Letang pairings for this series, this will allow all the pairs to clear the zone, and still have a good physical, defensive element.
Advantage Flyers, especially if the pairings are Scuderi/Gill and Whitney/Letang .
Flyers Defense vs Penguins Forwards
This will be a great matchup. The Penguins forwards are fast and skilled while the Flyers defense is big and physical. The Canadiens were able to posses the puck against he Flyers, and outshot them by double digits in three games. This trend should continue, the Penguins are just as fast as the Canadiens, and like to control the puck down low, and draw penalties. The Rangers defensemen made the mistake of backing off when Sid or Malkin had the puck, they were afraid of getting burnt individually, but they let them do whatever they wanted. The Flyers defense has to take the Penguins forwards, especially Malkin and Sid, head on and be physical with them. The Timmonen/Coburn pairing is very good, it is balanced and brings physicality/mobility to an otherwise slow/offensively challenged group. Like the Flyers, the Penguins will hit Timmonen whenever possible, and try to rattle him as much as possible. The Flyers must be able to exit the zone, and will need help from the forwards to win battles along the boards.
Advantage Penguins.
Goaltending
Marty Biron has looked very good in the playoffs, he has made the key saves, and although his numbers aren't great he has kept his team in games. He will have to be great to beat the Penguins this series.
Fleury has been solid this postseason, he has made all the saves, and has not given up many bad goals. He might have arrived as a franchise goaltender in the league. He will have to be good as the Flyers love to crash the net, and get into a goalie's head.
Advantage Penguins.
Special teams
Penguins PK vs Flyers PP:
The Penguins penalty kill has been great so far in the playoffs, and have been short handed the least of the remaining teams int the playoffs. But they haven't faced a unit as good as the Flyers. The Flyers powerplay is predicated upon crashing the net, they like to take shots and pounce on loose rebounds. Fleury must be able to control his rebounds, and whatever ones do come out the Penguins must clear from danger.
Flyers PK vs Penguins PP:
The Flyers have taken the most penalties of the teams left, and have by far the worst pk percentage. This will be a test for the Flyers because the Penguins powerplay has been good. The puck moves very quickly on the Penguins powerplay, and the Flyers must be aware of the plays the Pens like to run as well as the great individual players on the PP. The Flyers must stay out of the box, or they will get burnt badly.
Advantage Penguins.
Overall Thoughts
I think this will be a quick series. I don't think there will be much value betting the Penguins, but there should be some value betting the over. I would think that both teams will be able to score goals. The Penguins have the propensity of giving up goals very quickly, and Mary Biron will not hold up forever.
Penguins Defense vs Flyers Forwards
The Penguins defense is a good group that has a lot of balance. The Orpik/Gonchar pairing is solid having both an offensive and defensive presence. The other two groups are up in the air, it could be Scuderi/Whitney and Gill/Letang, as it was in the regular season, or Whitney/Letang and Scuderi/Gill, as it was last series. If the Penguins defensive pairings are the same as last series they will have trouble in their own zone. Gill/Scuderi will not be able to clear the zone, while Whitney/Letang will not be able to clear the front of the net. Either way, they must finish their checks, and make sure the Flyers pay for standing in front. The Flyers score a lot of goals from just outside the crease. Their scoring depth is great, having six 20-goal scorers, and that is not including Umberger who is on fire this playoffs. Mike Knuble always scores against the Penguins, and he scores big goals. The Flyers forwards were not able to posses the puck that much last series against Montreal. If they are going to score they need to cycle down low, get shots on Fleury from close, and draw penalties. The Flyers forwards will try to hit Gonchar as much as possible, and get him off his game. Look for Therrien to use the Scuderi/Whitney and Gill/Letang pairings for this series, this will allow all the pairs to clear the zone, and still have a good physical, defensive element.
Advantage Flyers, especially if the pairings are Scuderi/Gill and Whitney/Letang .
Flyers Defense vs Penguins Forwards
This will be a great matchup. The Penguins forwards are fast and skilled while the Flyers defense is big and physical. The Canadiens were able to posses the puck against he Flyers, and outshot them by double digits in three games. This trend should continue, the Penguins are just as fast as the Canadiens, and like to control the puck down low, and draw penalties. The Rangers defensemen made the mistake of backing off when Sid or Malkin had the puck, they were afraid of getting burnt individually, but they let them do whatever they wanted. The Flyers defense has to take the Penguins forwards, especially Malkin and Sid, head on and be physical with them. The Timmonen/Coburn pairing is very good, it is balanced and brings physicality/mobility to an otherwise slow/offensively challenged group. Like the Flyers, the Penguins will hit Timmonen whenever possible, and try to rattle him as much as possible. The Flyers must be able to exit the zone, and will need help from the forwards to win battles along the boards.
Advantage Penguins.
Goaltending
Marty Biron has looked very good in the playoffs, he has made the key saves, and although his numbers aren't great he has kept his team in games. He will have to be great to beat the Penguins this series.
Fleury has been solid this postseason, he has made all the saves, and has not given up many bad goals. He might have arrived as a franchise goaltender in the league. He will have to be good as the Flyers love to crash the net, and get into a goalie's head.
Advantage Penguins.
Special teams
Penguins PK vs Flyers PP:
The Penguins penalty kill has been great so far in the playoffs, and have been short handed the least of the remaining teams int the playoffs. But they haven't faced a unit as good as the Flyers. The Flyers powerplay is predicated upon crashing the net, they like to take shots and pounce on loose rebounds. Fleury must be able to control his rebounds, and whatever ones do come out the Penguins must clear from danger.
Flyers PK vs Penguins PP:
The Flyers have taken the most penalties of the teams left, and have by far the worst pk percentage. This will be a test for the Flyers because the Penguins powerplay has been good. The puck moves very quickly on the Penguins powerplay, and the Flyers must be aware of the plays the Pens like to run as well as the great individual players on the PP. The Flyers must stay out of the box, or they will get burnt badly.
Advantage Penguins.
Overall Thoughts
I think this will be a quick series. I don't think there will be much value betting the Penguins, but there should be some value betting the over. I would think that both teams will be able to score goals. The Penguins have the propensity of giving up goals very quickly, and Mary Biron will not hold up forever.
