My Computer Model: 3 plays today

[mighty maron]

This is what my computer model spat out for Monday. I would not advise following these picks unless you have a suitable bankroll and follow bankroll management.

Chicago -115 ML
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do not take at anything worse than -115. At -120 it doesnt make the criteria for the model.

Detroit +110 ML There is some movement to the line where you can still make play and it is profitable. You can take it at +105 and still get reasonable value. No lower than that

NJ Nets NBA +120 Computer Model says this is the best value by far. +120 is a steal according to my model

I will post my records and overall. Today is first day of project. Once again these are not leans by any means

[odog11]

Hi, for hockey does the model factor in who is in net? Thanks.

[oiler]

will check your system out

[mighty maron]

Hi, for hockey does the model factor in who is in net? Thanks.

I can manually go in and force an entry for goaltender...it staggers the percentage of top two net minders weighted on games played for both.

[mighty maron]

will check your system out

I will try to track overall records according to all bets are even and also a staggered bet system.

NJ 1.5 x...Det 1.0 x...Chi 0.5x......

[mighty maron]

Add Washington wizards at +300 on 5 dimes. Dont go below +300. Model says very good long term value.

Remember I have no opinion on this...goal is units won/loss not win loss record. Please follow bankroll manangement rules

[LUSabres]

No value in Chicago tonight; Minnesota a better play. I like Detroit though.

[mighty maron]

No value in Chicago tonight; Minnesota a better play. I like Detroit though.

I have no opinions on what it spits out...what it is saying is that at the price quoted it has value to be wagered
Here are the ev's it put out
Chicago 1.1033
Det 1.155
NJ 1.232 nba
Wash 1.28 nba

The program says that for every dollar money line bet on Chicago expect to get $1.1033 back at the price quoted. Long term if they played a lot of times. That is why bankroll management rolls are key to this. No pick is a lean.....
Its an expirement...fade or tail or ignore...

[bruceBRUCEbruce]

I like Det tonight at that number. g/l!

[mighty maron]

Overall Record 2-2 -0.03 units

This reflects if all bets were even. If the units were based strength of play bets it would not be pretty. So anything that meets the criteria should be bet the same regardless of how far above the play rates.

DET and CHI ML won
NJ and Wash (nba's) lost.

Will come out with more in a bit

[mighty maron]

NHL Picks for today

Two picks are above the threshold and one is just barely under. The computer does not like these games as much as the two NHL games yesterday. Im going to tweak the NBA program so its offline for right now

Here are the values it assigns the three projected winners
The odds are those of BetJam which I wagered on for today

ATL 1.119 based upon the -105 ML
NYI 1.116 based upon the +175 ML
VAN 1.09 based upon the -210 ML

All bets were the same amount. Yesterdays picks did not include any heavy favorites or big dogs. This time it spat out a +175 and a -210. Interesting to see how this will go.

Once again these are not leans...bankroll management rules can not be stress enough..

PTD 2-2 (-0.03 units)
Today 3 units wagered