I am thinking about beginning to bet draws in the NHL, but I don't know too much about betting hockey. Therefore I need you guys to help me develop a system where I eliminate games where a draw is too much of a longshot.
-
-
Good luck with that one. Even going with matchups with similar lines and similar GF/GA it's such a shot in the dark to predict them. CheersComment -
This won't be easy, but good luck.Comment -
Thanks. For the last weeks I have bet Draw in every game, and have profited nothing worth mentioning.Comment -
I think you should play the 3-4 games that you like the most and hope 1 hits. Are the odds 6-1?Comment -
If you find a book that offers 6-1 on draws in the NHL please do let me know.
The fact that you have turned a profit betting all the games recently is luck. The odds widely available on the game being a tie after regulation are not high enough for this to work in the long run. I would imagine that the odds for a game going into OT are simply going to be a function of the total and moneyline for the game. The lower the total and the more equal the times are on the moneyline the higher the probability of a tie. I see two viable options, be better than the market at setting the fair price for the total and moneyline in order to exploit tie wagers that are mispriced or take advantage of books that do not adjust the line on the OT prop bet accordingly after the market has moved the prices on the total and moneyline to were they actually belong. If you can effectively do the first option OT wagers will be of little interest to you since the limits on those bets are so low. I haven't ever seriously tried to attack these bets so take what I say with a grain of salt.
Best of luck to you, just make sure you have some math behind your wagers. Even in small vulnerable markets that very well may have soft lines betting blindly like you have been doing thus far is a sure fire way to go broke.Comment -
My bad. Odds are usually 4-1 with about a .3 variance.Comment -
For starters you should look at the lowest possible scoring games. They go to OT more often than high scoring games. This what i usually take for draw (which I do often)
Under 5 +120 to -140 or whatever
ML -105 to -130
These games are expected to be low scoring and tightly contested. So when u see one, take a shot.
Tommorow Nashville and Colombus match these lines and the draw is at +301. Im putting half unit on it. GL on your picksComment -
4.010 for that game. Good luck if you click it. Take a look at how often teams go into overtime and include that in your decision making.Comment
