Pstaff's NHL Picks 2010-2011

[pstaff1989]

I started an NBA picks thread, and figured I may as well give my spreadsheets a chance on the NHL as well. I try to play totals as frequently as possible, but I will play moneylines if the juice is right.

I will start the tracking at 0-0, with 0 units.

[pstaff1989]

Today's play is on:

Washington Capitals (-120) vs. Dallas Stars (even)
Wagering 4 units to win 4 units.

My calculations have Dallas winning this contest 3.55 to 2.47, here are some trends to go with the pick

Washington is 4-13-1 SU in its last 18 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Dallas is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Washington

[pstaff1989]

Final Score:

Dallas 2
Washington 1

Winner (+4 units). It wasn't pretty, and it wasn't as high scoring as I had anticipated, but it is still a victory and 4 more units in the bankroll.

2010-2011 Record: 1-0 (+4 units)

[TOTTENHAM2]

NICE HIT A WINS A WIN

[pstaff1989]

Thanks Ham!

[pstaff1989]

There will be no play today.

[pstaff1989]

There will be no play today. I have an NBA play this evening.

[pstaff1989]

Today's play in on:

The Under (5.5)(-140) of New York Rangers vs. Ottawa Senators. 5.6 units to win 4

This early night matchup at MSG should feature some good goal tending. Henrik Lundqvist has been stellar as of late, and Pascal Laclair has played awesome in 3 of 4 starts this season. New York has a great defensive system, and they execute especially well at home. Ottawa has not scored a goal in over 2 whole games, and they are really starting to squeeze those sticks. I got to watch them play last night against my Buffalo Sabres, and their offense was non-existent. My calculations have this game going to the Rangers by a score of 3 to 2. As always, a few trends:

The total has gone Under in 5 of Ottawa's last 5 games.
The total has gone Under in 4 of New York's last 5 games.
The total has gone Under in 6 of Ottawa's last 7 games at MSG.
The Under is 6-2-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams.

[pstaff1989]

Final Score:

Ottawa: 3
New York: 1
Total: 4

A nice winner today, even had room for that empty net goal at the end. The juice was high in this one, as it should have been. Solid goal tending on both ends this game.

2010-2011 Record: 2-0 (+8 units)

[pstaff1989]

Today there will more than likely be two plays. I am waiting to see where the juice is at when the lines open up @ my sportsbook. I will post the plays tomorrow as early as possible, I have class all day but my smart phone never fails.

[pstaff1989]

Today's play is on:

The Under (5)(even) of Montreal vs. Ottawa. 5 units to win 5.

These Southeast divisional rivals will be gunning for a victory this evening. I expect to see a chippy, hard fought game from both teams. Goal tending has been at a premium the past few weeks for both of these teams. Carey Price started off slow, but has been on fire the past month. Ottawa seems to get a solid performance no matter who they toss in net, Laclair and Elliot have both been solid. Pascal will get the start tonight. Both of these teams play a defense orientened game, and they almost always play to the under in divisional play. I have the advantage of scouting these teams year in and year out, as they come to Buffalo to play my Sabres very frequently. Look for a low scoring, hard fought game with one of these teams getting the lead and then playing the trap the rest of the way. As always, a few trends:

The under is 7-3 in the last 10 games between these two teams
The under is 8-3 in divisonal play for Ottawa
The under is 8-1 in divisional play for Montreal
The under is 8-2 in Ottawa's last 10 games
The under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 for Montreal
The under is 15-5 for Montreal vs. Eastern conference this season
The under is 5-0 in Ottawa's last 5 games

[pstaff1989]

Final Score:

Ottawa: 1
Montreal: 4
Push

This one looked good after the second at 1-1, and the habs held the 3-1 lead for a while in the third, but we caught a bad bounce with under 4 to play and found ourselves with a push. right back at it again tomorrow

Season Record: 2-0-1 (+8 units)

[TOTTENHAM2]

Unlucky hit the post as we say in england

[pstaff1989]

I am leaning towards the under of Pittsburgh vs. Toronto, but nothing official yet

[pstaff1989]

Today's play is on:

Under (5.5)(even) of Philidelphia Flyers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs. 4 units to win 4

The day is upon us. Books are starting to put out more 5 goal total's than 5.5, but we knew this was coming. I saw a thread on this website that tracks totals and the under is hitting at or around 70%, which is really substantial. This game is still a 5.5 total, because you never really know if you're going to get the Toronto Maple Leafs, or the Toronto Buds. sometimes this team looks really inexperienced and sloppy. But, with that said, I lived in Toronto for 2 years (the last two, before I moved to california for this past summer, now I am back in buffalo) and I got to watch the system that Toronto tries to play. They can play good defense when at home, as the under is hitting at 73.91% in their last 23 home games. Philly played last night. They lost in terrible fashion, and it was because they blew the lead at home. I look for philly to get up a goal or two on toronto, and then play shut down defense. I can see this one being a tight one, and ending up 3 to 2 with Philly winning.

The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Philadelphia's last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Toronto's last 23 games at home

[dvw5bf]

Locked this play up earlier today at +105 for a couple units... GL

[pstaff1989]

Thanks man, good luck.

[pstaff1989]

Today's play is on:

Under (5.5)(even) of Philidelphia Flyers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs. 4 units to win 4

The day is upon us. Books are starting to put out more 5 goal total's than 5.5, but we knew this was coming. I saw a thread on this website that tracks totals and the under is hitting at or around 70%, which is really substantial. This game is still a 5.5 total, because you never really know if you're going to get the Toronto Maple Leafs, or the Toronto Buds. sometimes this team looks really inexperienced and sloppy. But, with that said, I lived in Toronto for 2 years (the last two, before I moved to california for this past summer, now I am back in buffalo) and I got to watch the system that Toronto tries to play. They can play good defense when at home, as the under is hitting at 73.91% in their last 23 home games. Philly played last night. They lost in terrible fashion, and it was because they blew the lead at home. I look for philly to get up a goal or two on toronto, and then play shut down defense. I can see this one being a tight one, and ending up 3 to 2 with Philly winning.

The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Philadelphia's last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Toronto's last 23 games at home

Final Score
Toronto: 1
Philadelphia: 4
Winner (+4 units)

Nice winner here this evening. That puts us up 12 units on the season, looking to stay undefeated.

[Love The Action]

Do you pretty much just take IC's plays or do you have a separate system? Thanks.

[pstaff1989]

Do you pretty much just take IC's plays or do you have a separate system? Thanks.

I have a mathematical system that I use to project scores, and after I have projected a game score I just look at the trends on Bodog. IC picks games that have insane under trends, and I am usually on the same play. I usually only make NHL plays when I don't have an NBA play, or when I see a game that really has a lot of under trends to it. And of course, if a game has 4 or 5 trends going towards the under, you can bet your ass that IC will be on that play.

[Love The Action]

Thanks. I am interested in NHL over/under spreadsheets. I use a sheet in NBA that has been consistent for me. Interested in developing one for hockey and baseball as well. Good luck!

[pstaff1989]

Today's play is on:

Boston Bruins (+110) vs Montreal Canadiens. 4 units to win 4.4

Today I will be riding the Bruins powerful road record of 9-4-1. This is a revenge game because the Habs beat Boston in the TD Garden earlier this season. Last night the Bruins were caught looking past my Buffalo Sabres, and the Sabres were able to win 3-2 on the efforts of 1 player's hatrick. The "smart" money is on Boston because they only have 40% of bets on them, yet the line shifted from +115 to +110. Montreal has lost 3 straight games and Carey Price looked below average last night against Philly. Boston is starting Thomas in goal tonight which should mean that they will be aiming for the win, and playing more offensively because they know that their going to get good goal tending. Boston has a better goals for/goals against differential the Montreal, and also has a higher win percentage on the road than Montreal does at home. I can see the Habs playing conservatively here after giving up a lot of goals last night, and that favors the Boston Bruins because it's their style of play. With a victory tonight, Boston can tie Montreal for the lead in the division. A loss for the bruins would be a 4 point swing putting them 4 points back instead of tied. The Boston Bruins gave up the lead twice in last nights game, I look for them to get out to an early lead and try to buckle down defensively the rest of the way. This should be a low scoring affair, my calculations have this game going to Boston 3 to 2.

[pstaff1989]

Todays play is on:

The Under (5.5)(-120) of Anaheim Ducks vs. New York Islanders. 3.6 units to win 3.

Both of these teams skated to a 1-0 contest earlier this year. Anaheim is 6-2 to the under vs. the east. The under is also 4-2 in the last 6 games between these two teams. Dipietro will be looking to get back on track after a few bad outings. My calculations have this game going .5 goal under the posted total. Indian cowboy is also on this play, after dropping 2 straight and 4/6, I look for IC to get back on track tonight.

[pstaff1989]

Today's play is on:

Boston Bruins (+110) vs Montreal Canadiens. 4 units to win 4.4

Today I will be riding the Bruins powerful road record of 9-4-1. This is a revenge game because the Habs beat Boston in the TD Garden earlier this season. Last night the Bruins were caught looking past my Buffalo Sabres, and the Sabres were able to win 3-2 on the efforts of 1 player's hatrick. The "smart" money is on Boston because they only have 40% of bets on them, yet the line shifted from +115 to +110. Montreal has lost 3 straight games and Carey Price looked below average last night against Philly. Boston is starting Thomas in goal tonight which should mean that they will be aiming for the win, and playing more offensively because they know that their going to get good goal tending. Boston has a better goals for/goals against differential the Montreal, and also has a higher win percentage on the road than Montreal does at home. I can see the Habs playing conservatively here after giving up a lot of goals last night, and that favors the Boston Bruins because it's their style of play. With a victory tonight, Boston can tie Montreal for the lead in the division. A loss for the bruins would be a 4 point swing putting them 4 points back instead of tied. The Boston Bruins gave up the lead twice in last nights game, I look for them to get out to an early lead and try to buckle down defensively the rest of the way. This should be a low scoring affair, my calculations have this game going to Boston 3 to 2.

Final Score:
Montreal: 4
Boston: 3
Loser -4 units

The Bruins never really stood a chance in this one. The got scored on via a penalty shot in the 2nd minute of play, they gave up a fluke goal in the final minute of the 1st period, and they got scored on in the last minute of the 2nd period. It was too much of a hill to climb once they were down 4-2, but they fought hard until the end.

[pstaff1989]

Todays play is on:

The Under (5.5)(-120) of Anaheim Ducks vs. New York Islanders. 3.6 units to win 3.

Both of these teams skated to a 1-0 contest earlier this year. Anaheim is 6-2 to the under vs. the east. The under is also 4-2 in the last 6 games between these two teams. Dipietro will be looking to get back on track after a few bad outings. My calculations have this game going .5 goal under the posted total. Indian cowboy is also on this play, after dropping 2 straight and 4/6, I look for IC to get back on track tonight.

Final Score:
New York: 3
Anaheim: 2
Winner +3 units

Got sort of lucky as 3 goals were scored in 1:40 seconds of game play during the 1st period, but both teams buckled down on the defensive end, and the game stayed under the posted total. on to the next one

[pstaff1989]

Alright guys, back at it again continuing on with a positive 2010-2011 season.

My current record is:

2010-11 NHL 4-1-1 (+11 units) 80%

[pstaff1989]

Today's play is on:

The Under (5.5)(+105) of Washington Capitals vs. Pittsburgh Penguins

1 unit

[pstaff1989]

Today's play is on:

The Under (5.5)(+105) of Washington Capitals vs. Pittsburgh Penguins

1 unit Winner +1 unit

Nice win as the soft ice helped us get the Under tonight. These winter classics are gonna have Under written all over them for my future years of handicapping!


2010-11 NHL 5-1-1 (+12 units) 83.3% [+$300]

[pstaff1989]

Today's plays are on:

Montreal (-125) 1 unit

Under (5.5)(-130) Florida Panthers vs. New York Rangers

[pstaff1989]

Today's play is on:

Montreal (-125) 1 unit Loser -1.25 units

Tough loss as the Habs out shoot the Thrashers 50-28 but still manage to lose on a penalty in overtime

2010-11 NHL 5-2-1 (+10.75 units) 71.4% [+$268.75]

[pstaff1989]

Today's plays are on:
Under (5.5)(-130) Florida Panthers vs. New York Rangers Winner +1 unit

Nice winner as the game has 3 goals and goes under the posted total. Unfortunately I wanted to parlay this with Florida, but got cold feet. A win is still a win

2010-11 NHL 6-2-1 (+11.75 units) 75% [+$293.75]

[pstaff1989]

Today's play is on:

Under (5.5)(-115) Chicago vs. Los Angeles 2 units

[pstaff1989]

Today's play is on:

Under (5.5)(-115) Chicago vs. Los Angeles 2 units Loser -2 units

Unlucky as both the 1st and 2nd period have late goals. Just the ups and downs of a long season

[pstaff1989]

Under (6)(even) Tampa Bay vs. Washington

1 unit

[pstaff1989]

Under (6)(even) Tampa Bay vs. Washington

1 unit Winner +1 unit

the score is 0-0 with under 3 minutes left, I think it's safe to say this one cashed. 70% on the season so far, hopefully that doesn't drop too much


2010-11 NHL 7-3-1 (+10.75 units) 70% [+$268.75]