Duncan's NHL Value Plays

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  • DuncHen22
    SBR MVP
    • 11-20-09
    • 1079
    #1
    Duncan's NHL Value Plays
    I'm testing out a value play system based on AccuScore's predictions. This is basically just to keep a record. If it doesn't work I'll shut up but if it does, then great! I would recommend not tailing these right now. Money I'm using for this is fake. For now.

    For starters I'll play everything to win 1 unit. If it looks like it's working I'll adjust it to get the most value out of each play.

    Bolded play = best value

    Starting bankroll = $2000
    1 unit = $100

    10/29 Plays:

    Anaheim +100; 1u to win 1u
    Pitt -135; 1.35u tw 1u
    NYI -125; 1.25u tw 1u

    Daily Total: $360 to win $300
    Tags: None
    • gamemastere
      SBR MVP
      • 09-15-10
      • 1546
      #2
      wondering why so much line movement on anaheim since this morning any ideas?

      has moved from -120 to even since this morning
        Comment
        • DuncHen22
          SBR MVP
          • 11-20-09
          • 1079
          #3
          Yeah I was trying to figure that out but really have no idea. I'm very skeptical about accuscore's prediction on that but I'm just playing a system.
            Comment
            • gamemastere
              SBR MVP
              • 09-15-10
              • 1546
              #4
              yeah I already got my bet in on the ducks, in several parlays as well so just real curious about the movement
                Comment
                • dcollins86
                  SBR Rookie
                  • 03-23-10
                  • 45
                  #5
                  Can anyone see any reason why the Ducks ML is so big... Are there any significant injuries or anything???
                    Comment
                    • JC2008
                      SBR MVP
                      • 02-27-08
                      • 2258
                      #6
                      Why don't you guys just leave this game alone? It looks fishy as hell...
                        Comment
                        • DuncHen22
                          SBR MVP
                          • 11-20-09
                          • 1079
                          #7
                          Believe me, JC. If I was really betting, I'd stay way away from this game. I'm just posting the system plays as is for now. If it seems like it's working, I'll take a more dynamic approach and step back from games like this.
                            Comment
                            • DuncHen22
                              SBR MVP
                              • 11-20-09
                              • 1079
                              #8
                              Dang, 0-2 on my first 2 games and it's looking like I may be 0-3 on the day.

                              Not giving up over 1 bad day, though. We'll be back tomorrow.
                                Comment
                                • CapsFan
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 09-30-10
                                  • 188
                                  #9
                                  Lets bounce back Anaheim Come on
                                    Comment
                                    • DuncHen22
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 11-20-09
                                      • 1079
                                      #10
                                      10/30:

                                      Capitals -110
                                      Predators +145
                                      Sharks -210
                                      Thrashers +185
                                      Rangers +130

                                      According to my value system, Atlanta's line should be +140, which gives it the best value. I like the Capitals play 2nd most, though.

                                      All plays are to win 1 unit

                                      Daily total: Risking $519.94 to win $500
                                        Comment
                                        • DuncHen22
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 11-20-09
                                          • 1079
                                          #11
                                          Damn! Thrashers threw that game away. Oh well, it was still a good value play. Obviously it was a lot closer than Vegas expected and worth more than the +185 they were giving.

                                          I got the Rangers but lost the Predators. Caps are down 1 and Sharks are up 2.

                                          If things stand as is I'll be 2-3 on the day with a loss of $33.02. If anything changes I'll update it.

                                          That's 2-6, -3.9u on the year. It's still too early to call this in as it's a long term approach.
                                            Comment
                                            • DuncHen22
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 11-20-09
                                              • 1079
                                              #12
                                              WTF?! Caps score 6 in 2nd period??

                                              Sharks scored 2 more to lead 4-0. I'm feeling pretty good about these two games now. But crazier things have happened, I guess.

                                              Well that would change today's record to be (if the scores hold):

                                              3-2, +$176.98

                                              Overall:

                                              3-5, -1.8 units
                                                Comment
                                                • DuncHen22
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 11-20-09
                                                  • 1079
                                                  #13
                                                  No games tomorrow and only 3 on the 1st. Hopefully we can get 1 play then but I won't force it.

                                                  Have a happy halloween!!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • DuncHen22
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 11-20-09
                                                      • 1079
                                                      #14
                                                      11/1

                                                      Vancouver -165
                                                      Carolina +165


                                                      Both to win a unit.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • DuncHen22
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 11-20-09
                                                          • 1079
                                                          #15
                                                          Holy cow! Canucks are up to -190 in 5Dimes now. Glad I got it in early. No good value above -170.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • DuncHen22
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 11-20-09
                                                              • 1079
                                                              #16
                                                              Canucks -165 Win $100
                                                              'Canes +165 Loss -$60.61

                                                              Daily total: 1-1 +$39.39

                                                              Overall: 4-6 -1.44u
                                                                Comment
                                                                • DuncHen22
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 11-20-09
                                                                  • 1079
                                                                  #17
                                                                  I don't think I'll be playing anything on Tuesday. Closest play there is would be Edmonton +130 since I valued the line at +110, but I usually look for a bigger advantage than that.

                                                                  We have to be patient.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • DuncHen22
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 11-20-09
                                                                      • 1079
                                                                      #18
                                                                      Big card today:

                                                                      Caps -215
                                                                      Canes -150
                                                                      Wings -115
                                                                      Predators +115

                                                                      All to win 1 unit

                                                                      Daily total: $566.96 to win $400

                                                                      I know -215 is a big line but they should be an easy winner here. I think the Puckline of +135 has some good value too if you don't want to risk so much.

                                                                      AccuScore predicts Carolina winning 68% of the time, which would imply a line of -215 or so. That gives the Hurricanes the "best bet of the day" award. BOL!
                                                                        Comment
                                                                        • DuncHen22
                                                                          SBR MVP
                                                                          • 11-20-09
                                                                          • 1079
                                                                          #19
                                                                          Adding Anaheim -115.
                                                                            Comment
                                                                            • grizzly19
                                                                              Restricted User
                                                                              • 09-26-10
                                                                              • 43
                                                                              #20
                                                                              Anaheim is a terrible bet.

                                                                              Wings and Canes also very risky...good chance to lose.
                                                                                Comment
                                                                                • DuncHen22
                                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                                  • 11-20-09
                                                                                  • 1079
                                                                                  #21
                                                                                  Originally posted by grizzly19
                                                                                  Anaheim is a terrible bet.

                                                                                  Wings and Canes also very risky...good chance to lose.
                                                                                  You may be right, but I'm just playing based on what AccuScore predicts for the odds of winning.
                                                                                    Comment
                                                                                    • DuncHen22
                                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                                      • 11-20-09
                                                                                      • 1079
                                                                                      #22
                                                                                      Originally posted by DuncHen22
                                                                                      Big card today:

                                                                                      Caps -215 WIN
                                                                                      Canes -150 WIN
                                                                                      Wings -115WIN
                                                                                      Predators +115 LOSS
                                                                                      Ducks -115WIN

                                                                                      All to win 1 unit
                                                                                      Great day for me today!!!!

                                                                                      4-1 +$313.04 (3.13 u)

                                                                                      That puts me over my starting bankroll.

                                                                                      Total:
                                                                                      8-7 (53%) +1.69u


                                                                                      Bankroll: $2169.42
                                                                                        Comment
                                                                                        • DuncHen22
                                                                                          SBR MVP
                                                                                          • 11-20-09
                                                                                          • 1079
                                                                                          #23
                                                                                          Just one play today:

                                                                                          Sharks +105 to win 1 unit
                                                                                            Comment
                                                                                            • DuncHen22
                                                                                              SBR MVP
                                                                                              • 11-20-09
                                                                                              • 1079
                                                                                              #24
                                                                                              Sharks lost, which put my total at:

                                                                                              8-8 +.74 units
                                                                                                Comment
                                                                                                • DuncHen22
                                                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                                                  • 11-20-09
                                                                                                  • 1079
                                                                                                  #25
                                                                                                  I'm going to try to change up the units now, based on the strength of the value.

                                                                                                  Plays today:

                                                                                                  Panthers -135 (to win 1 unit)
                                                                                                  Ducks +115 (to win 1.5 units)
                                                                                                  Caps -130 (to win 2 units)
                                                                                                    Comment
                                                                                                    • TwiistedDragon
                                                                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                                                                      • 09-22-10
                                                                                                      • 324
                                                                                                      #26
                                                                                                      curious why caps, like the other two plays.
                                                                                                        Comment
                                                                                                        • DuncHen22
                                                                                                          SBR MVP
                                                                                                          • 11-20-09
                                                                                                          • 1079
                                                                                                          #27
                                                                                                          I'm merely basing all my plays off AccuScore's predictions. They give Caps a 65.8% chance of winning, which would imply the line should be more like -190 (and thus, a line of -130 has a lot of value). Is AccuScore correct in this prediction? I have no idea, but I thought I would see if it's a profitable system to follow.
                                                                                                            Comment
                                                                                                            • DuncHen22
                                                                                                              SBR MVP
                                                                                                              • 11-20-09
                                                                                                              • 1079
                                                                                                              #28
                                                                                                              Originally posted by DuncHen22
                                                                                                              I'm going to try to change up the units now, based on the strength of the value.

                                                                                                              Plays today:

                                                                                                              Panthers -135 (to win 1 unit) WIN
                                                                                                              Ducks +115 (to win 1.5 units)WIN
                                                                                                              Caps -130 (to win 2 units)WIN
                                                                                                              3-0 +4.5 units today!!

                                                                                                              Total: 11-8 (58%) +5.24 units

                                                                                                              Finally turning around! But I understand this is just one day. Let's be cool and just keep it going.
                                                                                                                Comment
                                                                                                                • DuncHen22
                                                                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                                                                  • 11-20-09
                                                                                                                  • 1079
                                                                                                                  #29
                                                                                                                  Some plays to get your day going:

                                                                                                                  Panthers +130 (1u)
                                                                                                                  'Canes under 5.5 (1u)
                                                                                                                  Predators +160 (2u)
                                                                                                                  Canadiens -120 (2u)
                                                                                                                  Islanders +135 (1u)
                                                                                                                  Blackhawks -150 (1u)

                                                                                                                  Those are the only games with lines right now. I'm going to bed and will do the rest in the morning.
                                                                                                                    Comment
                                                                                                                    • DuncHen22
                                                                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                                                                      • 11-20-09
                                                                                                                      • 1079
                                                                                                                      #30
                                                                                                                      Adding:

                                                                                                                      Blue Jackets -160 (1.5u)
                                                                                                                      Coyotes under 5.5 -115 (1.5u)
                                                                                                                      Sabres +135 (1u)
                                                                                                                      Sharks -140 (2u)
                                                                                                                      Avalanche -140 (1u)
                                                                                                                      Avalanche over 5.5 -140 (1u)
                                                                                                                        Comment
                                                                                                                        • DuncHen22
                                                                                                                          SBR MVP
                                                                                                                          • 11-20-09
                                                                                                                          • 1079
                                                                                                                          #31
                                                                                                                          Daily Total 18.3 units to win 16 units:

                                                                                                                          Panthers +130 (1u)
                                                                                                                          'Canes under 5.5 (1u)
                                                                                                                          Predators +160 (2u)
                                                                                                                          Canadiens -120 (2u)
                                                                                                                          Islanders +135 (1u)
                                                                                                                          Blackhawks -150 (1u)
                                                                                                                          Blue Jackets -160 (1.5u)
                                                                                                                          Coyotes under 5.5 -115 (1.5u)
                                                                                                                          Sabres +135 (1u)
                                                                                                                          Sharks -140 (2u)
                                                                                                                          Avalanche -140 (1u)
                                                                                                                          Avalanche over 5.5 -140 (1u)

                                                                                                                          Big card today. Let's cash it!
                                                                                                                            Comment
                                                                                                                            • DuncHen22
                                                                                                                              SBR MVP
                                                                                                                              • 11-20-09
                                                                                                                              • 1079
                                                                                                                              #32
                                                                                                                              Originally posted by DuncHen22
                                                                                                                              Daily Total 18.3 units to win 16 units:

                                                                                                                              Panthers +130 (1u) LOSS
                                                                                                                              'Canes under 5.5 (1u)WIN
                                                                                                                              Predators +160 (2u)LOSS
                                                                                                                              Canadiens -120 (2u)LOSS
                                                                                                                              Islanders +135 (1u)LOSS
                                                                                                                              Blackhawks -150 (1u)WIN
                                                                                                                              Blue Jackets -160 (1.5u)LOSS
                                                                                                                              Coyotes under 5.5 -115 (1.5u)LOSS
                                                                                                                              Sabres +135 (1u)WIN
                                                                                                                              Sharks -140 (2u)WIN
                                                                                                                              Avalanche -140 (1u) WIN
                                                                                                                              Avalanche over 5.5 -140 (1u)LOSS
                                                                                                                              5-7 -4.68 units!

                                                                                                                              Terrible day everywhere today. Hopefully this is just a bad run. I'm not giving up on it yet.
                                                                                                                                Comment
                                                                                                                                • DuncHen22
                                                                                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                                                                                  • 11-20-09
                                                                                                                                  • 1079
                                                                                                                                  #33
                                                                                                                                  Only 1 play today and I'm not even going to play a full unit since it's right on the cusp.

                                                                                                                                  Capitals -185 (.75u)
                                                                                                                                    Comment
                                                                                                                                    • DuncHen22
                                                                                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                                                                                      • 11-20-09
                                                                                                                                      • 1079
                                                                                                                                      #34
                                                                                                                                      Originally posted by DuncHen22
                                                                                                                                      Only 1 play today and I'm not even going to play a full unit since it's right on the cusp.

                                                                                                                                      Capitals -185 (.75u)WIN
                                                                                                                                      At least something went my way today.
                                                                                                                                        Comment
                                                                                                                                        • DuncHen22
                                                                                                                                          SBR MVP
                                                                                                                                          • 11-20-09
                                                                                                                                          • 1079
                                                                                                                                          #35
                                                                                                                                          No plays on Monday.
                                                                                                                                            Comment
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