Just picks and cash

NYSportsGuy210 · 10-26-10, 12:41 PM

No Worries

You are a good capper. You'll get em again.

jscott1586 · 10-26-10, 01:38 PM

GL on ur picks

biggerleaffan · 10-26-10, 03:02 PM

GL tn gigi. will be tailing!!! u are king.

gigicash · 10-26-10, 04:30 PM

TUE OCT 26

NHL : FLO Panthers v TOR Maple Leafs : TOR Maple Leafs -0.5 @ 2.00 6u
NHL : FLO Panthers v TOR Maple Leafs : DRAW @ 4.00 1u
NHL : BUF Sabres v PHI Flyers : PHI Flyers @ 1.83 3u
NHL : ANA Ducks v DAL Stars : DAL Stars -0.5 PENDING
NHL : EDM Oilers v CAL Flames : EDM Oilers PENDING

note: -0.5 is Regulation win (60) minutes - OT not included - also check the thread for pending bets ten minutes before game time!

Suggestions / Predictions

FLO Panthers v TOR Maple Leafs : OVER 5.5
BUF Sabres v PHI Flyers : UNDER 5.5
PHX Coyotes v OTW Senators : UNDER 5.5
ANA Ducks v DAL Stars : UNDER 6
EDM Oilers v CAL Flames : OVER 5.5
COL Avalanche v VAN Canucks : UNDER 6

Games that might go into OT:

FLO Panthers v TOR Maple Leafs
BUF Sabres v PHI Flyers
EDM Oilers v CAL Flames

YTD : 46-27-0 +51.67

CapsHockey · 10-26-10, 04:42 PM

GL tonight gigicash -- coulda easily been 2-1 last night...damn coyotes threw everything but the kitchen sink at the net in the 3rd, and the wild had 3 chances to win that game in the shootout. no big deal, on to the next...

question, for those of us who don't have the NHL 3-way betting option, how would you recommend playing the leafs tonight? i believe they're -160, last time i checked.

(my shop is "supposedly" adding NHL 3-way soon, but they haven't yet...)

thanks!

ink · 10-26-10, 04:50 PM

gigicash how come you have a bet for TOR Maple Leafs -0.5 @ 2.00 6u and a bet for FLO Panthers v TOR Maple Leafs : DRAW @ 4.00 1u ?? if a draw happens wouldn't you lose the first bet? or am i getting it totally incorrect?

CapsHockey · 10-26-10, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by ink

gigicash how come you have a bet for TOR Maple Leafs -0.5 @ 2.00 6u and a bet for FLO Panthers v TOR Maple Leafs : DRAW @ 4.00 1u ?? if a draw happens wouldn't you lose the first bet? or am i getting it totally incorrect?

i don't want to speak for gigi, but it appears to be a hedge against the larger wager.

if he's putting 6u on TOR to win in regulation (-.5), then it makes decent sense to put a small wager (1u) on the regulation draw to hedge against OT.

ink · 10-26-10, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by CapsHockey

i don't want to speak for gigi, but it appears to be a hedge against the larger wager.

if he's putting 6u on TOR to win in regulation (-.5), then it makes decent sense to put a small wager (1u) on the regulation draw to hedge against OT.

pardon my n00bness .. can we use bets for an example

i think that will make the understanding easier

i'm under the assumption -.5 means TOR wins by 1 goal after the end of the 3RD. if they go into OT then the score would be even, so the -.5 wouldn't win which is the larger wager?

JVP3122 · 10-26-10, 05:02 PM

Originally posted by gigicash

TUE OCT 26

NHL : FLO Panthers v TOR Maple Leafs : TOR Maple Leafs -0.5 @ 2.00 6u
NHL : FLO Panthers v TOR Maple Leafs : DRAW @ 4.00 1u
NHL : BUF Sabres v PHI Flyers : PHI Flyers @ 1.83 3u
NHL : ANA Ducks v DAL Stars : DAL Stars -0.5 PENDING
NHL : EDM Oilers v CAL Flames : EDM Oilers PENDING

note: -0.5 is Regulation win (60) minutes - OT not included - also check the thread for pending bets ten minutes before game time!

Suggestions / Predictions

FLO Panthers v TOR Maple Leafs : OVER 5.5
BUF Sabres v PHI Flyers : UNDER 5.5
PHX Coyotes v OTW Senators : UNDER 5.5
ANA Ducks v DAL Stars : UNDER 6
EDM Oilers v CAL Flames : OVER 5.5
COL Avalanche v VAN Canucks : UNDER 6

Games that might go into OT:

FLO Panthers v TOR Maple Leafs
BUF Sabres v PHI Flyers
EDM Oilers v CAL Flames

YTD : 46-27-0 +51.67

Gigicash, already played the TOR win for 5u and the draw for 2u as you originally wrote. Should I up the win to 6u and leave the draw at 2 or just leave the win at 5u?

CapsHockey · 10-26-10, 05:03 PM

Originally posted by ink

pardon my n00bness .. can we use bets for an example

i think that will make the understanding easier

i'm under the assumption -.5 means tor wins by 1 goal. if they go into OT it's even, so the -.5 wouldn't win which is the larger wager?

sure...

so he likes TOR (-.5) to win in regulation for 6u @ 2.00 (or even money US odds)
he's hedging against that bet with 1u @ 4.00 (+300 US) for the regulation draw.

if TOR wins in regulation, he wins 6u and loses 1u for a 5u profit.
if the teams tie, he loses 6u on TOR, but he wins 3u on the draw, thereby minimizing his loss from 6u to 3u.
if FLA wins in regulation, he loses both bets, 7u total.

follow?

Sundered · 10-26-10, 05:06 PM

Yes he has 6 units on TML @2.00 for a regulation win (0.5 in after 60 mins) But if you also notice he has the TML & FL as a game that very well could go to OT.

So the 1unit @4.00 on the Draw is a insurance policy. if TML wins in reg then he gets 12u if they go to OT he get 4u which will lower the pain of loosing 6 on the regulation win. Now the down side is if the leafs just plain loose in regulation in which he woudl loose both bets(knock on wood) lets hope that doesnt happen.

Edit : Caps beat me to it.

ink · 10-26-10, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by CapsHockey

sure...

so he likes TOR (-.5) to win in regulation for 6u @ 2.00 (or even money US odds)
he's hedging against that bet with 1u @ 4.00 (+300 US) for the regulation draw.

if TOR wins in regulation, he wins 6u and loses 1u for a 5u profit.
if the teams tie, he loses 6u on TOR, but he wins 3u on the draw, thereby minimizing his loss from 6u to 3u.
if FLA wins in regulation, he loses both bets, 7u total.

follow?

gotcha

makes total sense now .. the hedging threw me off as *caution* to betting that game

the majority of the times i hedge are say 2H of the game if i'm down 1H

appreciate ur time for explaining it to me

chopstick88 · 10-26-10, 05:11 PM

He is getting back his loss and profit today once and for all. We will end it with profit tonight....good luck betting against him.

JVP3122 · 10-26-10, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by JVP3122

Gigicash, already played the TOR win for 5u and the draw for 2u as you originally wrote. Should I up the win to 6u and leave the draw at 2 or just leave the win at 5u?

Any advice from anyone else in case gigicash doesn't log back in before game time?

CapsHockey · 10-26-10, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by Sundered

Yes he has 6 units on TML @2.00 for a regulation win (0.5 in after 60 mins) But if you also notice he has the TML & FL as a game that very well could go to OT.

So the 1unit @4.00 on the Draw is a insurance policy. if TML wins in reg then he gets 12u if they go to OT he get 4u which will lower the pain of loosing 6 on the regulation win. Now the down side is if the leafs just plain loose in regulation in which he woudl loose both bets(knock on wood) lets hope that doesnt happen.

Edit : Caps beat me to it.

Sundered, you're dead on, but be careful about translating his units, which are decimal units, not U.S. odds. 2.00 is not the same as +200 or 2/1. 2.00 is EVEN money, or +100. 4.00 is not +400 or 4/1, it is +300.

so he's wagering 6u @ 2.00 is the same as 6u @ +100 = 6u win, not 12u

here's an odds converter you can use:

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting+tools/odds+converter.aspx

ink · 10-26-10, 05:24 PM

does anyone know what book gigicash uses?

chopstick88 · 10-26-10, 05:25 PM

5dimes has all the lines.

CapsHockey · 10-26-10, 05:26 PM

Originally posted by JVP3122

Any advice from anyone else in case gigicash doesn't log back in before game time?

JVP, the way i see it, he's willing to risk 7u (max loss) to win 5u (max win).

if you bet 5u TOR (-.5) and 2u DRAW, then you're risking 7u (max loss) to win 3u (max win). However, if the game goes to OT, then you actually profit 1u, as opposed to gigi who would lose 3u.

I don't see how adding more to TOR (-.5) helps you here. Let's say you increase 2u on TOR (-.5), so now you're risking 9u to win the same 5u gigi's trying to win. But if the game goes to OT, you're now the same as he is, a 3u loser, instead of a 1u winner. So you've increased your exposure beyond what he is suggesting for the game. In other words, you've added risk, with no possibility for added return.

ink · 10-26-10, 05:29 PM

Originally posted by chopstick88

5dimes has all the lines.

thanks

JVP3122 · 10-26-10, 05:34 PM

Well here's what I'm thinking. If TOR wins then I'm up 3 units. If it goes OT I'm up 1 unit at +300. I can essentially add one unit on the win "for free"

CapsHockey · 10-26-10, 05:42 PM

Originally posted by JVP3122

Well here's what I'm thinking. If TOR wins then I'm up 3 units. If it goes OT I'm up 1 unit at +300. I can essentially add one unit on the win "for free"

if the game goes to OT or if FLA wins in regulation, then it's not really "free" is it?

remember, his effective price is risking 7u to win 5u, or 5/7 = -140

you're suggesting risking 8u to win 4u, or 1/2 = -200

(that's a big difference in risk, given that the full game line is only -160.)

good luck whatever you decide.

JVP3122 · 10-26-10, 05:48 PM

That's a good point. I just wish I had waited and seen the change gigicash made. As it is right now I'm risking 7 to win 3 so adding another would actually improve my odds

edit: actually I like having the only way I lose being Fla winning in regulation. Thanks, caps

Sundered · 10-26-10, 05:54 PM

Originally posted by CapsHockey

Sundered, you're dead on, but be careful about translating his units, which are decimal units, not U.S. odds. 2.00 is not the same as +200 or 2/1. 2.00 is EVEN money, or +100. 4.00 is not +400 or 4/1, it is +300.

so he's wagering 6u @ 2.00 is the same as 6u @ +100 = 6u win, not 12u

here's an odds converter you can use:

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting+tools/odds+converter.aspx

Your Dead on there CAPS but i always look at 2.00 odds has 2 x your money cause in reality you do get your bet money back when you win.

You risk 600 hoping to win 600 but your prepared to loose 600. Thus when you win and get 1200 you are really geting 2 times your bet (600 winnings and your 600 bet returned) Its sorta a upward spin on the whole dont bet more then your willing to loose phrase.

gigicash · 10-26-10, 06:05 PM

guys.. power went off right after I posted my plays!!! then came back on and off again - driving me crazy - I am sorry I couldn't answer your questions , It's allright now, reading through the post! I originally posted 5u to win 2 to draw, had on my notes! but the bet was 6u to win / 1 to draw! let me read through the post and I will get back to you..

gigicash · 10-26-10, 06:32 PM

It cost me yesterday for not having atleast 1u on PHX - MON game draw, and I was so sure it would go into OT - tonight I wanted to minimize my loss I would never put more then a unit on a draw at any given time! I added one more unit on Toronto, and thats how I got to it - it was typo which I changed as quickly as possible. this game means a lot to me, and I do think it will come through, even though Florida is playing very well right now. Dallas will be a NO-BET if Toronto is ahead, just to let everyone know.

CIPRI_83 · 10-26-10, 06:38 PM

ya gigi....1-0 Leafs

JVP3122 · 10-26-10, 06:42 PM

Good to know. Thanks, gigicash. Next time I'll wait until closer to game time

CapsHockey · 10-26-10, 06:43 PM

Originally posted by Sundered

Your Dead on there CAPS but i always look at 2.00 odds has 2 x your money cause in reality you do get your bet money back when you win.

You risk 600 hoping to win 600 but your prepared to loose 600. Thus when you win and get 1200 you are really geting 2 times your bet (600 winnings and your 600 bet returned) Its sorta a upward spin on the whole dont bet more then your willing to loose phrase.

I gotcha. Just two different ways of looking at it. I just didn't want to confuse anyone into thinking that gigi's 6u play on the Leafs tonight would actually NET him 12u, which is what I thought you were originally saying.

1-0 Leafs after 1 -- Bozak's first of the year! Go Leafs Go!!

gigicash · 10-26-10, 07:03 PM

CapsHockey, thanks for helping - & GO Leafs GO!

ps: delay of game, bad weather in Toronto, lights are out at The Air Canada Centre.

chopstick88 · 10-26-10, 07:06 PM

Phila down 1-0

rpeiper · 10-26-10, 07:21 PM

Welcome to the life of a popular capper. Hope you are ready for you new celebrity status! Everyone has ups and downs, just hope the ups outlast the downs.

You were on the right side last night, just unlucky. You know what you are doing and will keep doing it I have no doubt.

Originally posted by gigicash

CapsHockey, thanks for helping - & GO Leafs GO!

ps: delay of game, bad weather in Toronto, lights are out at The Air Canada Centre.

thedrifter · 10-26-10, 07:28 PM

are you touching any of the other games tonight?

LarryF · 10-26-10, 07:30 PM

So gigicash, do you live in Toronto? Power out at your place and the arena?

gigicash · 10-26-10, 07:43 PM

~~NHL : ANA Ducks v DAL Stars : DAL Stars ML - NO BET!~~

Last play of the night:
NHL : EDM Oilers v CAL Flames : EDM Oilers ML @ 2.55 1u

gigicash · 10-26-10, 07:48 PM

rpeiper, thanks. I've learned the hard-way... it took me a couple of years to actually make something happen' and I still believe there is room for improvement.

LarryF, yes to both, power was out earlier, it's fine now.