NHL 2007 Underdog Tracking Thread

[moses millsap]

Just going to keep track of how the dogs do:

YTD: 57-80 -5.38 units

Day 1: 1-3 -1.60 units
Day 2: 3-5 -1.30 units
Day 3: 5-1 +5.34 units
Day 4: 7-7 +1.73 units
Day 5: 0-1 -1.00 unit
Day 6: 1-2 -1.00 unit
Day 7: 1-0 +1.15 units
Day 8: 3-9 -5.05 units
Day 9: 2-3 +0.40 units
Day 10: 4-2 +4.05 units
Day 11: 6-7 +0.55 units
Day 12: 1-1 +0.20 units
Day 13: 1-2 -1.00 unit
Day 14: 2-2 +0.55 units
Day 15: 2-2 +0.55 units
Day 16: 4-5 -0.50 units
Day 17: 3-1 +3.70 units
Day 18: 3-10 -6.15 units
Day 19: 1-1 +.05 unit
Day 20: 1-2 -0.80 units
Day 21: 2-4 -1.30 units
Day 22: 0-5 -5.00 units
Day 23: 4-5 +1.05 units

[bigboydan]

My guess will be about 15 to 20 games in to the season is when the doggies will start showing a very profitable margin owned.

[moses millsap]

Today:

Columbus +116
Carolina +106
Islanders +160
Capitals +138
Bruins +164
Sharks +114

[onlooker]

I wait about 2 weeks before I start betting on the NHL. I bet mostly underdogs, but not all of them everyday.

Thanks for tracking this OWNED, it should be interesting to see how they do.

[JAHgger4noz]

Breaking it down even further OWNED:

Road Dog: 2-7
Home Dog: 2-1

Road Dog Wins: +140, +135
Home Dog Wins: +125, +105

Better %age for Home Dogs.
Looking at todays schedule, Wash and SJ fits into this criteria for Road Dogs. I'd tend to lean to SJ for this cause Wash played terrible against Atl last year and the Sharks played well in back to back games last year.

[moses millsap]

Day 4:

Montreal +142
Islanders +120
Rangers +110
Carolina +118
Devils +133
Ducks +164
Thrashers +115
Oilers +100
Stars +118
Columbus +190
Blackhawks +164
Canucks +132
Bruins +106
Blues +118

14 games, don't think I can even try to bet the board of dogs tonight

[DoctorX79]

I would play theses dogs : Montreal,New Jersey,Duks,Vancouver

[moses millsap]

The 4 late dogs cash to make it a profitable one for those who went nuts and bet the board.

Day 5:

Sharks +115

[moses millsap]

Day 6:

Capitals +100
Devils +151
Oilers +206

[moses millsap]

Day 7:

Carolina +115

[moses millsap]

Day 8:

Thrashers +140
Islanders +115
Coyotes +160
Canadiens +160
Panthers +130
Flames +160
Oilers +170
Blackhawks +130
Kings +150
Predators +100
Bruins +165
Flyers +120

[moses millsap]

Day 9:

Thrashers +180
Hurricanes +150
Islanders +160
Devils +100
Coyotes +190

[moses millsap]

Day 10:

Capitals +160
Blackhawks +260
Flames +120
Blues +105
Oilers +100
Bruins +120

[moses millsap]

Day 11:

Capitals +180
Penguins +100
Senators +100
Hurricanes +100
Islanders +140
Thrashers +110
Tampa Bay +110
Flames +125
Blackhawks +120
Columbus +160
Coyotes +135
Oilers +150
Bruins +210

[moses millsap]

Day 12:

Kings +140
Wild +120

[moses millsap]

Day 13:

Toronto +150
San Jose +100
Detroit +110

[sharktank1]

Good info, thanx.

[moses millsap]

sharktank1 - No problem.

Day 14:

Atlanta +175
Florida +115
Calgary +130
Kings +140

[moses millsap]

Can somebody track this for the next few days?

[moses millsap]

Day 15:

Columbus +100
Devils +140
Blues +115
Predators +175

[kissthecup]

FYI, last year NHL underdogs returned 44.81 units (using Pinnacle overnight lines). Their overall record was 445-650 (.406), and to break it down further, home dogs returned -.63 units while road dogs returned 45.44 units. Their respective records were 136-181 (.429, home) and 309-469 (.397, road). You'll notice that the total number of games is only 1095, while the NHL season has 1230 games. The discrepancy arises because I don't start calculations until three weeks into the season, when teams have begun to reveal themselves to some extent. I'm sure I could go back and add in the first three weeks of the season, but I doubt the result would change dramatically.

And don't worry if you miss a few days OWNED. I track this every day for all major professional and college sports. Just ask if you need some data posted.

[cobra_king]

Kissthecup:

Did the previous season 2005-2006 show similiar results favoring road dogs so dramatically?

[m3vr6]

wow!!! u guys track this daily? great work!!!! hope it's accurate though 'cause i would use them. keep up the good work

[kissthecup]

Unfortunately, I began this project only last year. If I had access to the lines from 05-06 I could process the data in a matter of seconds, but finding reliable line archives is next to impossible. I'd say that last year's results are strong enough to make one think twice before betting a home favorite, but I certainly wouldn't trust them enough to blindly bet road dogs (at least not yet).

[moses millsap]

kissthepuck,

Thanks. I might be able to jot down the lines and post them when I come back (will be gone Thursday-Sunday).

[cobra_king]

kissthecup

Does this help?

http://www.donbest.com/calendar/calendars.htm?200510&20051008&/website/html/freeodds/archives/nhl.shtml?&

[cobra_king]

With Owned MIA for a few days i'll keep it alive till he gets back.
Day 15 was 2-2 for a profit of .55 units

Day 16

Tampa +100
NYIsle +125
NJ +165
Atlanta +100
Florida +100
Montreal +170
LA +175
Edmonton +105
Detroit +120

[kissthecup]

OWNED, the link helps, but since I can't just import all the lines at once it will take some extra time. Might be a few days, but I'll get around to it.....

[kissthecup]

Sorry cobra, just noticed it was you that sent the link.

[cobra_king]

Yesterday went 4-5 for a loss of -.5 units

Day 17

Carolina +120
Columbus +180
Chicago +100
LA +190

[cobra_king]

Yesterday was a good day for dogs going 3-1 for a profit of 3.7 units

Day 18

Chicago +175
Boston +110
Florida +180
Buffalo +100
NJ +100
Carolina +135
Pitts +100
Atlanta +145
Anaheim +120
St Louis +115
Phoenix +165
Edmonton +180
Nashville +180

[cobra_king]

Saturday was very chalky. Underdogs went 3-13 for a loss of -9.15 units.

Day 19

Van +105
Colorado +135

Back to you Owned!

[moses millsap]

Thanks CK, I will update the first post now. I think yesterday was 3-10 -6.15 units

[moses millsap]

Look at NFL, horrible last 3 weeks (3-11, 4-9 L2 weeks all with mostly smaller dogs winning). Today 1-6 so far if Texans hold on with Buffalo +135 being the only one.

[moses millsap]

Day 20:

Canucks +145
Bruins +120
Sharks +120

Pretty much a wash after 19 days. Will day 20 be a 3-0 or 0-3 to swing things?