Home Ice in Playoffs

TJ EasyStreet · 04-12-10, 11:41 AM

Which way do you mean? Do you mean it from a gambler's perspective and the higher prices on home teams or just in general?

terpkeg · 04-12-10, 11:48 AM

Was thinking in general, but bottom line for me is the gambling perspective.

Home teams were 52-35 last yr's playoffs. 59.7%.

TJ EasyStreet · 04-12-10, 11:53 AM

Originally posted by terpkeg

Was thinking in general, but bottom line for me is the gambling perspective.

Home teams were 52-35 last yr's playoffs. 59.7%.

Yeah, I was about to look myself because I remember the SCF's looking like it was going to be a home sweep until the Penguins won Game 7 in Detroit.

terpkeg · 04-12-10, 12:04 PM

Originally posted by tjcap

Yeah, I was about to look myself because I remember the SCF's looking like it was going to be a home sweep until the Penguins won Game 7 in Detroit.

Yup, that happened. Year before was 3-3. 3 srtaight home wins, followed by three straight roadies.

2008 51-34 60%.

terpkeg · 04-12-10, 12:11 PM

The reason this came to mind was 4-5 years ago, cant recall exactly, I decided to do a chase system betting on home teams in the nhl playoffs. Goal being to win half unit per series. I believe in the first round I got pushed to Game 5 and, after that win, scrapped the idea as a disaster wating to happen. I thought that after I threw the towel in, another series that year went to Game 7 before the rhome team won. I thought to myself that my bankroll would not have been able to sustain this.

Maybe my recollection is wrong. But, this got me thinking. I basically only follow playoff and olympic hockey, and I always wind up taking action on the games. I feel like there has been many times in the bast 8 years where I have lost betting on home teams in big games. I thought I might be able to uncover a trend on away team/underdog value.

terpkeg · 04-12-10, 12:14 PM

The numbers from the last two years hold steady at home teams winning 60% of time. This does me know good without odds though. If you assumed that the home team was the favorite in every game, you would need the away team to be an average of > +150 to find profibility in betting the road team in every game. Problem is, I assume that the road team is favorite in some games.

Would be interested to see how underdogs do v. favs in playoffs. Anyone have this data?

TJ EasyStreet · 04-12-10, 12:21 PM

If you are feeling adventerous ... http://www.sbrforum.com/Scores/NHL+Odds/20090415.aspx

A quick run-through. If you bet the road dogs in all games starting with the opening round that began on April 15th

Day #1: 1-3 (-1.35)
Day #2: 1-3 (-1.12)
Day #3: 1-2 (-0.59)
Day #4: 1-3 (-1.10)

So, it doesn't look too promising. Seems like you should just go with your brain on a one-off basis.

terpkeg · 04-12-10, 12:32 PM

Originally posted by tjcap

If you are feeling adventerous ... http://www.sbrforum.com/Scores/NHL+Odds/20090415.aspx

A quick run-through. If you bet the road dogs in all games starting with the opening round that began on April 15th

Day #1: 1-3 (-1.35)
Day #2: 1-3 (-1.12)
Day #3: 1-2 (-0.59)
Day #4: 1-3 (-1.10)

So, it doesn't look too promising. Seems like you should just go with your brain on a one-off basis.

thanks, it looks like 12 of the road wins last year were from favorites who were 12-6 total.