Hotcross NHL 2018-19 Thread

[hotcross]

added :: 2 more units...

NASHVILLE -115 regulation only ML // 2.30 units to win 2
*push if game goes to Overtime

[hotcross]

adding ::

DALLAS -115 regulation only ML // 2.30 units to win 2
*push if game goes to Overtime

Schedule advantage for the home team here against the Penguins. Malkin is still out, and I think Dallas is actually the better overall team currently. Dallas is forced to start Khudobin in net with Ben Bishop still trying to get fully healthy.

[hotcross]

Not a good night so far.

adding ::

ANAHEIM -0.5 +180 regulation win // 3 units to win 5.40

Anaheim looked good last night, they were all over the Sharks. Think they continue tonight against the Kings, who beat the Ducks in both prior meetings this year.

[hotcross]

took a week off following the bad run.... shoulda definitely taken the break sooner, or hit the brakes sooner....

I owe the thread summary results, will have to do it after this Sunday's games to stay consistent with the week-endings.

Saturday March 30

TAMPA BAY -0.5 -115 regulation win // 3.45 units to win 3

This is Tampa's final home game against of the season, and it is against the defending Champions - the Washington Capitals, who defeated Tampa in last year's playoff run. However, Tampa has won both of this season's matches, and I believe this could be the last game they are going to really try to win during the regular season. Also in their favor is they have been resting since Monday's home win against Boston. Meantime the Capitals played against Carolina twice this week on Tuesday and Thursday. I'd also expect an Under in this game, the line is at 7, but given my poor performance with totals, that's a pass.

[hotcross]

couldn't have been more wrong with the Tampa pick, as Washington jumped them for a 3-0 lead by the end of first period. Tampa took the game's first penalty like 23-seconds in when Vasilevskiy tripped one of the Capitals. Surprised it was Tampa not ready to play this one (or didn't care maybe).

adding ::

VEGAS +125 regulation only moneyline // 4 units to win 5
*push if game goes to Overtime

VANCOUVER +125 ML // 4 units to win 5
(Overtime included)


Vegas comes into San Jose on a back-to-back and lost 4-games in a row, matching their season-high losing streak. However, San Jose current losing streak is 7-games. I think San Jose has no confidence right now, and their goaltending has been horrendous. Looking at Vegas, with Malcolm Subban getting the starts in net, it's understandable why that might be part of the reason for their slide, however he has played pretty well and in fact in each game Vegas lost it was against pretty good goalies who were hot on the opposing team. San Jose doesn't have that factor working. I think it's more probable to see Vegas turn around the losing streak in tonight's game.

The Vancouver pick is because Dallas is on the 4th game of their road trip tonight, having won all 3 previous games. Vancouver has been on an extended homestand in which they have gone 2-3 W/L. They have created some buzz and excitement with Quinn Hughes seeing his first NHL action last game, in which he scored an assist. Although Dallas is the better team, look to Vancouver to be hungry for a win here on the last Saturday home game of the season.

I think if I lose all 3 of today's picks, it would bring me back to Even on the season, which is quite shhhitttty considering at one time I reached a high-mark of up +50 units this season.

[hotcross]

1-1-1 W/L/D on Saturday for a modest +1.55 units. Vegas lost in Overtime, so that was the push. Vancouver won in a shootout.

Sunday March 31

PITTSBURGH -146 ML // 5.84 units to win 4

This game starts in 5 minutes. Carolina has played 7 games going back to March 19, while the Penguins have only played 5 in the same timeframe. This is a back-to-back for Carolina, after winning in Philly yesterday. So far, Carolina leads the season series 2-1 W/L, and although the Penguins have Letang and Malkin still out of the lineup, by securing a win today, they can pretty much assure themselves of the playoff berth, since Carolina is the team right on their heels.

[hotcross]

Week 24 results: Monday March 11 – Sunday March 17

--------Mar.11----------
- 4.20 COLUMBUS-105 regulation only ML ---> score 2-0 road loss at NYI
+2.30 PARLAY 2-teams:
>>>>>PHILADELPHIA -310 ML ---> score 3-2 home win in regulation vs OTT
>>>>>EDMONTON -160 ML ---> score 3-2 home OT win vs NYR
- 2.00 EDMONTON -0.5 +105 regulation win ---> score 3-2 home Overtime win vs NYR
- 4.00 ARIZONA+102 regulation only ML ---> score 7-1 road loss at CHI

--------Mar.13----------
- 6.20 EDMONTON -0.5 -155 regulation win ---> score 6-3 home loss vs NJ
+1.71 CONNOR McDAVID PLAYER PROP OVER 1.5 POINTS -117 ---> score 5-3 road win at PHI
- 2.00 NY RANGERS +112 regulation only ML ---> score 4-1 road loss at VANC

--------Mar.14----------
+2.00 PITTSBURGH -0.5 -105 regulation win ---> score 5-0 road win at BUF

--------Mar.15----------
- 1.00 OVERTIME +315 CAR@CBJ
+2.00 UNDER 5.5 -107 CAR@CBJ ---> score 3-0 CBJ home win vs CAR
- 1.00 OVERTIME +305 VGS@DAL ---> score 2-1 DAL home loss in regulation vs VGS

--------Mar.16----------
+2.40 MINNESOTA -0.5 -125 regulation win ---> score 5-2 home win vs NYR

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 24 = -9.99 units (W/L = 5-7 = .416 pct)
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OVERALL THREAD = +22.79 units (W/L = 98-127-4 = .435 pct)
**as of end Week 24
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Week 25 results: Monday March 18 – Sunday March 24

--------Mar.18----------
- 3.00 SAN JOSE-0.5 +100 regulation win ---> score 7-3 home loss vs VGS
- 2.00 LOS ANGELES+150 ML ---> score 3-2 home loss vs WPG
- 1.00 LOS ANGELES -1.5 +390 alternative puckline

--------Mar.19----------
- 2.00 NY ISLANDERS -0.5 +150 regulation win ---> score 5-0 home loss vs BOS
+3.80 COLORADO -0.5 +190 regulation win ---> score 3-1 road win at MINN
+6.10 COLORADO -1.5 +305 alternative puckline

--------Mar.20----------
- 1.25 OVERTIME WPG@ANA
- 1.00 ANAHEIM +127 ML ---> score 3-0 home loss vs WPG
- 1.00 ANAHEIM +245 ML LIVE end 1p

--------Mar.21----------
- 2.00 CAROLINA -1.5 +172 puckline ---> score 6-3 home loss vs TB (blown lead 3p)
+1.95 LOS ANGELES +195 ML ---> score 4-2 home win vs SJ

--------Mar.22----------
+4.00 OVERTIME SJ@ANA ---> score 4-3 ANA home Overtime win vs SJ

--------Mar.23----------
- 1.00 FLORIDA-0.5 +200 regulation win ---> score 7-3 home loss vs BOS
- 1.00 NASHVILLE-0.5 +155 regulation win ---> score 5-0 road loss at WPG
- 2.30 NASHVILLE -115 regulation only ML
- 2.30 DALLAS -115 regulation only ML --->score 3-2 home loss in regulation vs PITT
- 3.00 ANAHEIM-0.5 +180 regulation win --->score 4-3 road Shootout loss at LAK

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 25 = -7.00 units (W/L = 4-13 = .235 pct)
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OVERALL THREAD = +15.79 units (W/L = 102-140-4 = .421 pct)
**as of end Week 25
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//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Week 26 results: Monday March 25 – Sunday March 31

--------Mar.30----------
- 3.45 TAMPA BAY -0.5 -115 regulation win ---> score 6-3 home loss vs WSH
+0 push VEGAS +125 regulation only ML ---> score 4-3 road Overtime loss at SJ
+5.00 VANCOUVER +125 ML ---> score 3-2 home Shootout win vs DAL

--------Mar.31----------
+4.00 PITTSBURGH -146 ML ---> score 3-1 home win vs CAR

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 26 = +5.55 units (W/L = 2-1-1 = .667 pct)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OVERALL THREAD = +21.34 units (W/L = 104-141-5 = .424 pct)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Thread up to date. This upcoming week is the end of the regular season. Picks will continue into the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

[hotcross]

Monday April 1

NEW JERSEY -0.5 +145 regulation win // 2 units to win 2.90

This is the final home game of the year for New Jersey. And it's against one of their division rivals. Rangers won their last 2 games and are thus getting some love. Jersey should have a big effort it this situation.


I like about 2-3 underdogs on today's card, but not sure yet if I want to play them. Considering Florida and Edmonton. Another big game for Colorado in St. Louis and the Avalanche pretty much need to keep winning, but I'm not sure if they can tonight.

[hotcross]

adding ::

EDMONTON +210 ML // 3 units to win 6.30

EDMONTON -0.5 +330 regulation win // 1 unit to win 3.30

EDMONTON -1.5 +445 alternative puckline // 1 unit to win 4.45

I think Vegas as a heavy favorite for tonight's game is way off-base. Now, they could very well beat the Oilers, but there are several reasons I cannot pass-up a pretty hefty shot on the visitors tonight:

3 games in 4 night for Vegas
Vegas lost their past 5 games in a row
Those two points alone would have me questioning why are they -230 or higher tonight.
Vegas players are banged-up with some questionables for tonight: Stone, Stasny, Schmidt, and Pirri. We already know Malcolm Subban is gonna get another start in goal with Fleury resting still. This game means about nothing to Vegas in the standings, at this point in the season, so I wonder if they will be of the mentality let's take it easy tonight and not get anyone else hurt, with the playoffs right around the corner after this week.
Did you know Edmonton is 4-3 W/L against Vegas all-time? So they have some success when facing this opponent.

[hotcross]

-2.10 units on the day, taking a big shot on the Oilers has been unwise all season

Oilers suck was reason enough to avoid, close score but only 19 shots for the Oilers, didn't have the puck long enough most of the game

[hotcross]

Tuesday April 2

MINNESOTA -138 regulation only ML // 2.76 units to win 2
*push if game goes to Overtime


still looking at the later games...

[hotcross]

adding ::

COLORADO -0.5 -127 regulation win // 1.27 units to win 1

Avalanche starting Varlamov for the first time since March 15, since Grubauer has been the hot hand. Both teams on a back-to-back, Oilers coming in from 3-1 empty net loss last night in Vegas. Not sure what to make of Varlamov starting, but Avs need the win and being -220 favorite tonight I feel this is a must play for a unit.

[hotcross]

adding ::

ARIZONA -0.5 -138 regulation win // 6.90 units to win 5

Arizona has a huge scheduling advantage for tonight's home game against the Kings, who come in off a back-to-back in which they got blasted by a Calgary team who chose to rest several players. Kings don't want to play any more this season, so against a hard working team like the Coyotes, I don't see this game going to Overtime, although it could be a tight score. Arizona is on the bubble just out of the 2nd wildcard spot in the West. I don't think they are gonna get it in the end, with their last two games being Thursday at Vegas, then a home finale against Winnipeg. But they shouldn't allow the Kings to stomp them out of the chase in tonight's game.

[hotcross]

Kings scored with 0.2 seconds left in the 2nd period, ties score 1-1

Mental lapse by the Coyotes there. They have dominated all night but stymied by Jack Campbell has been great tonight in net for the Kings. Strongly feels like this thing will go to Overtime.

Live lines now show, for regulation time:
+290 Kings
+220 Draw
- 105 Coyotes

[hotcross]

2-1 W/L on Tuesday but got jacked with Arizona for a -3.90 units net loss.

Thursday April 4

BUFFALO -1 -127 puckline *buy 0.5 goal // 2.54 units to win 2

I don't see a lot of clarity on tonight's card. However Buffalo has lost 8 games in a row and is hosting Ottawa for their final home game tonight. Senators on a back-to-back after beating the Rangers yesterday. Think the Sabres find a way to win, and I'm reducing the -200 moneyline by taking the puckline and buying the hook, so if the Sabres win by just 1 goal, this will push. Overtime counts for the wager.

-------------------------------------

Reviewing the rest of the card, but keeping in mind not to force a play. I'm leaning towards Arizona as the road team in Vegas, which feels kinda dumb, but it's a later start so I got time to think. Really have no faith in Cal Pickard as their goalie, after Kuemper took a stick to the eye in Tuesday's loss.

[avssakic]

Kuemper's going to start. Must win for AZ to try and keep their slim playoff chances alive. Not really much motivation for Vegas. Think there is value in AZ moneyline

[hotcross]

thanks for that update, where are you getting that info on Kuemper?

Actually I was wondering how close Antti Raanta is to being game ready? I thought he could definitely be available if they made the playoffs.

[avssakic]

Their twitter feed says he's expected to start barring any setbacks

[hotcross]

adding ::

WINNIPEG +107 ML // 4 units to win 4.28

ARIZONA +210 ML // 1 unit to win 2.10


that's all for today's NHL action

[hotcross]

sorry that Arizona pick is regulation only ML, pushes if game goes to OT

get better odds on the dog playing it that way

[hotcross]

just a note: talked myself out of taking St. Louis as a heavy favorite at home vs Philly. That one looked like a no-brainer, but sometimes St. Louis seems to play down to their opponent. Well they are up 3-0 very early, scoring often from the start.

Update: 4-1 score, just 7-minutes into the game

[hotcross]

adding one more unit ::

ARIZONA +255 regulation only ML // 1 unit to win 2.55
*push if game goes to Overtime


Line jumped by a lot here before puck drop. Gotta spend another unit at those odds.

[hotcross]

Good thing I added to the Arizona pick, they're gonna win, leading 4-1 now late.

Winnipeg blew the game after a first period 2-0 lead in Colorado, who continues to run hot, clinching the 2nd wildcard spot in the West. They will play Calgary in Round 1 when the playoffs start (I believe so). Hope the Avs can pull off the series upset or that is a wasted spot.

Buffalo won no problem 5-2 score. Makes the day +2.65 units, going 2-1 W/L (Arizona just counts as one win because was just added unit at improved odds on the same wager). Sitting at -3.35 units on the week, with just Fri/Saturday remaining in the regular season.

I got some plans for a couple of the opening Rounds of the playoffs. Very disappointed in the last few weeks, since I was up over +50 units at the high point. Had visions of getting to +100 units this season and it fell apart. Mostly overbet some bad picks, but also feels like missing some breaks going my way. I guess it evened out.

[hotcross]

Friday April 5

DALLAS -105 regulation only ML // 3.15 units to win 3
*push if game goes to Overtime

I'm not afraid of Chicago at home, I think both teams try hard in tonight's game. Dallas has to play tomorrow, and my guess is they'll let that be a throwaway.

[hotcross]

adding ::

LOS ANGELES +150 ML // 4 units to win 6

Well, I was dead wrong on the Dallas at Chicago game. But I have a few reasons why Kings should take the nightcap game:

-Chance to sweep the rival Ducks for the first-time ever for the season
-Jack Campbell starting goalie again. He was unstoppable in their previous game at Arizona.
-Ducks have a couple of the young players out with injury, who have been involved with recent success, Troy Terry, Josh Manson
-Kings have to play Vegas tomorrow and they must realize they have no chance in that game. So the motivation should be for tonight's most hated rival.

[hotcross]

Disastrous 0-2 last night for -7.15 units and both picks weren't even close

Saturday April 6

FLORIDA -200 ML // 4 units to win 2

OVER 6 +130 WPG@ARIZ *sell 0.5 goals // 3 units to win 3.90

EDMONTON +1 +110 puckline *buy 0.5 goals // 3 units to win 3.30


Got a couple more games I'm considering the home teams, not sure yet.

[hotcross]

adding ::

NY ISLANDERS -0.5 +180 regulation win // 1.60 units to win 3.06

[hotcross]

adding ::

PLAYER PROP - EVANDER KANE (SJ) OVER 0.5 POINTS -133 (goals/assists) // 2.66 units to win 2

[hotcross]

Luongo allowed 3 goals on the first 16 shots by New Jersey, all even strength.

Florida has 26 shots thru 2 periods, but just one goal. They look frustrated.

[hotcross]

Just noticed typo mistake on the Islanders pick, it should read 1.70 units risked to win 3.06

Game still going, they have 1-0 lead with about 10-minutes left in the game


Edit: I just finished typing that, and Islanders scored another. Washington sat out 3 main players for rest.

[hotcross]

Week 27 results: Monday April 1 – Saturday April 6

--------Apr.1----------
+2.90 NEW JERSEY -0.5 +145 regulation win ---> score 4-2 home win vs NYR
- 3.00 EDMONTON+210 ML --->score 3-1 road loss at VGS
- 1.00 EDMONTON -0.5 +330 regulation win
- 1.00 EDMONTON -1.5 +445 alternative puckline

--------Apr.2----------
+2.00 MINNESOTA -138 regulation only ML ---> score 5-1 home win vs WPG
+1.00 COLORADO -0.5 -127 regulation win ---> score 6-2 home win vs EDM
- 6.90 ARIZONA -0.5 -138 regulation win ---> score 3-1 home loss vs LAK

--------Apr.4----------
+2.00 BUFFALO -1 -127 puckline *buy 0.5 goals ---> score 5-2 home win vs OTT
- 4.00 WINNIPEG+107 ML --->score 3-2 road Overtime loss at COL
+4.65 ARIZONA +210/+255 regulation only ML ---> score 4-1 road win at VGS

--------Apr.5----------
- 3.15 DALLAS -105 regulation only ML --->score 6-1 road loss at CHI
- 4.00 LOS ANGELES +150 ML --->score 5-2 road loss at ANA

--------Apr.6----------
- 4.00 FLORIDA -200 ML ---> score 4-3 home Overtime loss vs NJ
+0 push OVER 6 +130 WPG@ARIZ *sell 0.5 goals ---> score 4-2 ARIZ home loss vs WPG
+3.30 EDMONTON +1+110 puckline *buy 0.5 goals ---> score 3-1 road win at CGY
+3.06 NY ISLANDERS -0.5 +180 regulation win ---> score 3-0 road win at WSH
+2.00 EVANDER KANE (SJ) PLAYER PROP OVER 0.5 POINTS -133 ---> score 5-2 SJ home win vs COL
(Evander Kane scored 30^th goal of season, also 1 assist = 2 point game)


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week 27 =-6.14 units (W/L = 8-8-1 = .500 pct)
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OVERALL THREAD = +15.20 units (W/L = 112-149-6 = .429 pct)
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End of the Regular Season.


Another misplayed week by me. The two picks that bother me the most were April 5 taking both those road teams, then I passed the next day, both won at home on April 6 final game. LA Kings were just as big +plus odds at home to Vegas, which they beat 5-2


My goal at this point is to double these season winnings of +15 units in the playoffs.

[pimike]

Will you be posting in here or a new thread?

[hotcross]

PLAYOFFS ROUND 1

Wed. April 10 - Game 1

SERIES NY ISLANDERS +137 // 2 units to win 2.74

UNDER 5.5 -110 STL@WPG (game 1) // 2.20 units to win 2

SERIES WINNIPEG +115 // 5 units to win 5.75


I may be buying out of those series prices early by betting the other side if these home teams win Game 1, just to guarantee a small profit.

[hotcross]

adding ::

UNDER 6 +106 VGS@SJ // 2 units to win 2.12

[hotcross]

split the 2 unders last night, so even money there.

Islanders won in OT, but now Pittsburgh is offered at only +115 to win the series. So I'll hold with the Islanders series for now.

Winnipeg lost an expected tight game, but now they're in trouble after losing the home opener. WPG series odds now up to +188 but I'm not going to throw more money at what looks to have been a bad bet. They could still win, and I kinda expected this series to go 7-games. I definitely think they can/will win at least one game on the road in St. Louis. Binnington surely made some huge saves and was a difference maker, but Hellebuyck made the exact same number of saves (24) in Game 1.


Thurs. April 11 - Game 1

CAROLINA +128 ML // 1 unit to win 1.28

CAROLINA -0.5 +206 regulation win // 1 unit to win 2.06

SERIES CAROLINA +126 // 1 unit to win 1.26

I'll be willing to add another unit (or more) to Carolina series if they lose game 1 tonight in Washington.

My opinions are very mixed on the two other series that start tonight. I do think Boston and Calgary advance. But as we saw last night, anything can happen in these game 1 matchups.