Senators vs Maple Leafs Predictions

[SBR Andy]

The Ottawa Senators (45-30-7) take on the Toronto Maple Leafs (52-26-4) in the battle of Ontario for the 1st round of the Eastern Conference playoffs.

Series Odds via DraftKings: Maple Leafs -170 / Senators +145

Is this the year the Leafs make a run or do their playoff demons bite them once again? Post your series and game predictions below.

[SBR Andy]

Senators vs Maple Leafs Game 1 predictions from SBR's Gary Pearson:

Under 5.5 Goals (-110 FanDuel)

"Two of three regular-season meetings ended with five goals or fewer, with the exclusion going Over due to Michael Amadio's empty-net goal. Down the stretch, the Maple Leafs played stingy defense at home, resembling their early-season selves at Scotiabank Arena. In their seven-game win streak to end the season, they allowed a league-best 1.43 goals per game. It was quintessential Craig Berube hockey, which will be ramped up even more in the postseason.

Stolarz, the confirmed Game 1 starter, has been almost impenetrable in his last nine starts. Winning eight of nine, he posted a .943 save percentage and a 1.55 goals-against average (GAA). That stingy streak is just part of his sterling resume, with the Maple Leafs' No. 1 also thriving on home ice.

In his 19 home games, a lower total due to his midseason injury, Stolarz sported the fifth-best save percentage (.932) on home ice and the third-best GAA (1.86). His last four games at Scotiabank Arena were even better, with Stolarz registering two shutouts, a .940 save percentage, and a 1.41 GAA.

While Ullmark hasn't been as good on the road this season, his two starts in Toronto went exceptionally well. He shut out the Maple Leafs 3-0 in November, turning aside 27 shots and finishing with a spectacular 3.78 goals saved above expected. While his second start was much quieter, he finished with a respectable 0.5 goals saved above expected, allowing two goals on 23 shots."


William Nylander Over 2.5 shots (-130 BetMGM)

"Nylander had at least three shots in his last four playoff contests, and he is a shooting machine against the Senators, hitting the Over in seven straight meetings.

The 2.5-shot total is conducive to an Over, as the Maple Leafs' top goal scorer from the regular season will be looking to create a spark early and often."


Auston Matthews Over 0.5 assists (-105 DraftKings)

"It's the time of year when Matthews must shine for the Maple Leafs to get past the Senators. He finished the season with 45 assists, one short of his career-best despite missing 14 games through injury. Matthews hasn't had a lot of success against the Senators lately, but still managed two helpers in the previous four meetings.

The Maple Leafs captain posted two assists in his last two playoff encounters, and I expect a spirited display on Sunday."


Tim Stutzle Over 0.5 points (-138 FanDuel)

"Stutzle finished the season on a tear, scoring seven points in his last three games. He's even more prolific against the Maple Leafs, whom he has at least one point against in six of the previous seven contests, amassing nine points in that stretch."

[SBR Andy]

Toronto came to play with a convincing 6-2 Game 1 victory.

Updated series odds via DraftKings: Maple Leafs -400 / Senators +300

[SBR Andy]

Senators vs Maple Leafs Game 2 predictions from SBR's Gary Pearson:

Under 5.5 goals (+102 FanDuel)

"The Senators' inexperience was on full display in their first playoff game in almost eight years. Ottawa handed the Maple Leafs six power plays, which the home team took full advantage of, scoring three times.

Aside from their lack of discipline, caused by an unchecked and raw level of excitement, the Sens played a solid game.

The on-ice proceedings didn't reflect the lopsided score, with the Sens controlling 5-on-5 play. Ottawa outshot Toronto 33-24, won the 5-on-5 expected goals battle 1.9 to 1.36, and had a Corsi rating of 64%. While the Maple Leafs are no stranger to losing the Corsi battle, their 36% rating exemplifies how much the Sens dictated play.

Though the Sens should be just as desperate in Game 2 if not more so, they'll be immeasurably more controlled, disciplined, and composed. If the Sens can stay out of the sin bin, they should level the series.

I'm not utilizing the Sens moneyline pick as my best bet because of Anthony Stolarz, who has been phenomenal in Toronto all season, but even more so in the last nine games, including Sunday's Game 1 triumph.

He recovered magnificently after a rare moment of complacency on Drake Batherson's first-period goal.

The Maple Leafs' No. 1 has allowed two goals in his last three starts. Since losing 4-2 to Ottawa on March 15, Stolarz is 9-0-0. In the final eight games of the regular season, he posted three shutouts, had a .950 save percentage, and allowed a 1.37 goals-against average.

If the Maple Leafs win, it will be because of Stolarz. Ullmark must be better for the Sens after finishing Game 1 with -2.1 goals=saved above expected. That said, his team left him out to dry with its continual march to the penalty box."


John Tavares Over 2.5 shots (+120 bet365)

"Tavares was a beast in Game 1, firing six shots on Ullmark. While I can't see him being as productive, Tavares - who has never won a Stanley Cup - is a man on a mission. Built for the postseason, Tavares has already enjoyed an inspired campaign, and he's far from done.

He also hit the Over in four of his previous five regular-season meetings with Ottawa."


Brady Tkachuk over 0.5 points (-125 BetMGM)

"Tkachuk fired five shots on Stolarz in his playoff debut. It was just his second game back after missing eight toward the tail end of the season, and there weren't many signs of any lingering rust. Tkachuk, however, hasn't posted a point in his last five games. For the Sens to have any chance in Game 2 and beyond, he must produce offensively.

Despite it being his first playoffs, Tkachuk is built for the postseason (at least if his genes are anything to go by). I expect a spirited display from the Sens captain in his second playoff game, which should include a point and at least four shots."


Drake Batherson Over 0.5 points (-130 DraftKings)

"Batherson scored a goal and had four shots in Game 1. He was one of the Sens' most impactful players, and I expect a repeat performance from the 26-year-old. Batherson loves playing the Maple Leafs as much as a shopaholic enjoys Black Friday, scoring at least a point in six of the previous seven meetings with the Buds."

[SBR Andy]

The Leafs take Game 2 in overtime 3-2 to go up 2-0 in the series.

Updated series odds via DraftKings: Maple Leafs -900 / Senators +600

[SBR Andy]

Ottawa wins Game 4 in overtime to avoid the sweep.

Updated series odds via DraftKings: Maple Leafs -1600 / Senators +900

[SBR Andy]

Senators vs Maple Leafs Game 5 player prop picks from SBR's Gary Pearson:

Auston Matthews anytime goal (+120 FanDuel)

"Matthews' only goal in the series came in the third period of the Game 3 victory. The Maple Leafs captain has 2.1 expected goals (tied for 12th).

Despite scoring in Game 3, he mustered just 0.2 expected goals, his lowest total of the series. He upped the ante considerably in Game 4, finishing with 0.8 expected goals and four shots on goal, his second-best output in both categories.

Most notably, Matthews had 10 shot attempts, setting the stage for a highly productive, potentially series-clinching Game 5 on home ice. Craig Berube said Matthews missed practice on Monday for a rest day and is not concerned about his health.

With that in mind, Tuesday's contest is tailor-suited for a Matthews goal. With so much on the line, mainly the desire not to return to Ottawa for Game 6, Matthews looks primed to light the lamp.

In addition, the power play was kept off the board for the first time in Game 4. The Buds were 4-for-7 at home in Games 1 and 2, which bodes well for the captain."


John Tavares Over 2.5 shots (+120 BetMGM)

"Due to concussion protocol, Tavares missed 10 minutes of Game 4. On Monday, the Maple Leafs' former captain said he's ready to go and feeling fine. Tavares has been a beast thus far, one of the Maple Leafs' most consistent offensive threats. He hit the Over on shots in three of four games, averaging 3.75.

With a goal in three of four games, Tavares is also a good bet to light the lamp. But I'm banking on him firing at least three shots on goal for the fourth time this series. The 34-year-old has at least three shots in eight of his previous 11 postseason games."


Brady Tkachuk Over 0.5 points (-130 bet365)

"Backing Tkachuk to notch a point has been a profitable pick, and I expect him to hold up his end of the bargain again tonight. The Senators' captain has only three points, but they've come in three successive games. Game 1 is the only tilt in which he didn't register a point.

Tkachuk's offensive contribution is even more necessary in a series where goals and chances are at a premium. The Sens have scored a power-play goal in three straight games, and two of Tkachuk's three points have come with the man advantage."

[SBR Andy]

Leafs fans are saying "here we go again" after the Senators win 4-0 in Game 5 to force a Game 6.

Updated series odds via DraftKings: Maple Leafs -425 / Senators +320

[SBR Andy]

Maple Leafs vs Senators Game 6 prediction from SBR's Gary Pearson:

Maple Leafs ML (+100 Caesars)

"Will the Toronto Maple Leafs bottle their third chance to vanquish the Senators?

Unfortunately for Senators fans, I feel the Maple Leafs will finally get it right. Despite losing Game 4, 4-0, the Buds created the most chances 5-on-5 they have all series, finishing with 2.01 expected goals. Compare that to the Senators' 1.35. Overall, the Maple Leafs won the expected goals battle 3.07 to 2.65.

That hasn't been the way for most of the series, with the Senators dictating 5-on-5 play for the most part.

But if Craig Berube's team fires the kitchen sink at Linus Ullmark like they did in Game 4, it will be challenging for the Sens' netminder to stand on his head again. Ullmark finished Game 5 with an eye-popping 3.07 goals saved above expected. I can't see him pulling that off twice in a row. If he does, the Sens will extend the series.

I also expect a bounce-back outing from Anthony Stolarz. All of that should combine for a Maple Leafs victory."

[SBR Andy]

Maples Leafs vs Senators Game 6 player prop picks from SBR's Gary Pearson:

John Tavares Over 2.5 shots (-115 BetMGM)

"Tavares' shot prop has been almost as profitable as Dylan Strome's assist prop.

The former Maple Leafs captain is made for the playoffs despite never having the chance to win a Stanley Cup. His physicality facilitates the chance for more open looks. If he doesn't get an open look, his competitive level allows him to force some.

Tavares hit the Over in four of five games, including both in Ottawa. He's fired at least three shots on goal in nine of his previous 12 playoff encounters. Our best sports betting apps have adjusted the odds accordingly, but -115 still offers enough value to pull the trigger."


Matthew Knies Over 0.5 points (-120 DraftKings)

"Two of Knies' three points in the series occurred in Ottawa, where the 22-year-old scored in Games 3 and 4. He only has three points in five games, but he's playing with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. While 5-on-5 opportunities have been at a premium, Knies' odds for one point (-120) represent the Leafs players' best value.

To elicit any value from Matthews, Marner, or Tavares, you must back them to score two points. The low-scoring nature of the series doesn't consistently jive with those multi-point outings."


Brady Tkachuk anytime goal (+190 bet365)

"bet365 offers the +190 outlier price on Tkachuk to score for the fourth time in the series. Tkachuk to notch a point or fire at least four shots on goal has been particularly profitable, but our best NHL betting sites expectedly shortened the odds too much to elicit enough value.

The captain has been the one to step up for the Senators. Without his exceptional play, the Senators would already be teeing off on the first hole of their favorite holiday course.

If Tkachuk scores again, the Sens have a chance of taking it the distance. Even if they lose Game 6, the team's leader won't go down without a fight. I'm just hoping it comes in the form of a goal."

[SBR Andy]

The Leafs avoid disaster and close out the Senators 4-2 in Game 6 to advance and play Florida in Round 2.

Updated odds for Toronto to win the Stanley Cup via DraftKings: +800