Lucky Sharp [January NHL]

[LuckySharp]

Hey guys,
New poster here, who has been betting on sports for over fifteen years. I have been wanting to join and post my picks for months now but I am a very disciplined handicapper who follows strict money management and who sets goals for each year - so I felt it was best that I hold off until the New Year. I'm happy to be here and i'm looking forward to getting to know all of you in this upcoming year.

2019 Plan:
The goal, every year, is to win 55% of our wagers at -110 odds in an effort to double our starting bankroll.

· Starting Bankroll = $5,000
· Expected Profit = $5,000
· Finishing Bankroll = $10,000

All wagers are to win 3% of our starting bankroll / therefore $150.
If you choose to follow, please note that you can use a larger or smaller bankroll, as it fits your financial needs. Simply divide your starting bankroll by 33.3 to determine how much you should be betting to win on each wager. Ie. With a $1,000 starting bankroll, you would be betting to win $30 on each wager as 1000/33.3 = 30.

What to expect?
Regular Season:
Projected Wagers = 500 / Projected Win % = 55% at -110 odds / Projected Profit = +82.5 units or +$4,125
· NBA = 150 (6 per week, Monday-Saturday, skipping a week)
· NHL = 150 (6 per week, Monday-Saturday, skipping a week)
· MLB = 150 (6 per week, Monday-Saturday, skipping a week)
· NFL = 50 (3 per week, 2 in week 17)

Systems / Tournaments / Playoffs
Projected Wagers = 100 / Projected Win % = 55% at -110 odds / Projected Profit = +17.25 units or +$825 units

· MLB Systems = 55 wagers (approx.)
· NCAA March Madness = 10 wagers
· NCAA Bowl Games = 5 wagers
· NBA = 10 wagers
· NHL = 10 wagers
· MLB = 5 wagers
· NFL Playoffs = 5 wagers

Each week, on Sunday, I’ll do a recap of the past weeks results and a preview of what to expect in the upcoming week (number of picks + goal for the week)!

What to Expect in the month of January:
55-56 bets (25 NBA + 25 NHL) *One pick, per sport, from Monday-Saturday (two days of no picks per sport)!*
+ 1 CFB Bowl bet and 4-5 NFL Playoff bets.

One day at a time,
Lucky Sharp

[LuckySharp]

January 1st:
[NHL] Chicago Blackhawks +145
2.07 units to win 3.00 units / $207 to win $300

One day at a time,
Lucky Sharp

[turdferg]

good luck mr sharp - too bad on the hawks today

[LuckySharp]

Thanks turdferg!

[LuckySharp]

2019 Results: 2-1 +3.90 units (+$195)

• NBA: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)
• NHL: 0-1 -2.1 units ($-105)
• CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)

January 2nd
[NHL] Detroit Red Wings +150
Risking 2.00 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $100 to win $150

One day at a time,
Lucky Sharp

[Hman]

GL tonight

[Pickem2win]

2019 Results: 2-1 +3.90 units (+$195)

• NBA: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)
• NHL: 0-1 -2.1 units ($-105)
• CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)

January 2nd
[NHL] Detroit Red Wings +150
Risking 2.00 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $100 to win $150

One day at a time,
Lucky Sharp

You are the only one I know taking detroit tonight. And not even the PL at +1.5?? Good luck

[LuckySharp]

Thanks H-man and Pickem2win. I play for the long-run, not the short term. While this is not a popular bet, it is a valuable bet IMO. I simply don't believe Calgary has more than a 60% chance of winning tonight, on the road, in Detroit.

To give you a brief write-up as to why:
Calgary has been one of the best teams in the league this year and are coming off an 8 goal game against an elite team (which will make them a popular bet), I simply do not feel they have more than a 60% chance of winning - as this is their first game of the New Year (on the road), against an Eastern Conference team (whom they've only been 50-50 against, compared to 60% against the Western Conference) and with them playing against b2b, against a play-off team tomorrow night (Boston) thus possibly overlooking Detroit tonight. While taking Detroit at +1.5 gives us a better chance at winning, I am focused on the long run and I believe there is more value in taking the moneyline tonight.

Good luck!

[LuckySharp]

2019 Results: 2-3 -1.40 units (-$70)

• NBA: 1-1 -0.3 units ($-15)
• NHL: 0-2 -4.1 units ($-205)
• CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)

January 3rd
[NHL] Florida Panthers -105
Risking 3.15 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $157.50 to win $150

One day at a time,
Lucky Sharp

[LuckySharp]

2019 Results: 3-4 -1.55 units (-$77.50)

• NBA: 2-1 +2.70 units ($+135)
• NHL: 0-4 -7.25 units ($-362.5)
• CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)

January 4th

[NHL] Vegas Golden Knights -135
Risking 4.05 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $202.5 to win $150

One day at a time,
Lucky Sharp

[LuckySharp]

2019 Results: 5-4 +4.45 units (+$222.5) / Average Odds = +103

• NBA: 3-1 +5.70 units (+$285)
• NHL: 1-4 -4.25 units (-$212.5)
• NFL Playoffs: 0-0 +0 units (+0)
• CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)

January 5th

[NHL] Los Angeles Kings -115
Risking 3.45 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $172.5 to win $150

One day at a time,
Lucky Sharp

[hotcross]

same side here on the Kings tonight.

GL

[Hman]

GL today

[LuckySharp]

Thanks hotcross and hman!

[LuckySharp]

2019 Results: 7-6 +4.06 units (+$203) / Average Odds = +100

• NBA: 3-2 +2.55 units (+$127.5)
• NHL: 2-4 -1.25 units (-$62.5)
• NFL Playoffs: 1-1 -0.24 units (-$12)
• CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)

Last Weeks Results = 7-6 +4.06 units

What to expect this week?
5-6 NBA Bets (1 per day, Monday-Saturday)
5-6 NHL Bets (1 per day, Monday-Saturday)
1-2 NFL Bets (Saturday-Sunday)

January 7th

[NHL] Los Angeles Kings +1.5 (-135)
Risking 4.05 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $202.5 to win $150

One day at a time,
Lucky Sharp

[LuckySharp]

2019 Results: 8-7 +3.01 units (+$150.5) / Average Odds = -103

• NBA: 4-2 +5.55 units (+$277.5)
• NHL: 2-4 -5.30 units (-$62.5)
• NFL Playoffs: 1-1 -0.24 units (-$12)
• CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)

January 8th

[NHL] San Jose Sharks -225
Risking 6.75 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $337.5 to win $150

One day at a time,
Lucky Sharp

[LuckySharp]

2019 Results: 10-7 +9.01 units (+$450.5) / Average Odds = -106

• NBA: 5-2 +8.55 units (+$427.5)
• NHL: 3-4 -2.30 units (-$115)
• NFL Playoffs: 1-1 -0.24 units (-$12)
• CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)

January 9th

[NHL] Calgary Flames -180
Risking 5.40 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $270 to win $150

One day at a time,
Lucky Sharp

[LuckySharp]

2019 Results: 12-7 +15.01 units (+$1,050.5) / Average Odds = -109

• NBA: 6-2 +11.55 units (+$577.5)
• NHL: 4-4 +0.70 units (+35)
• NFL Playoffs: 1-1 -0.24 units (-$12)
• CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)

January 10th

[NHL] Toronto Maple Leafs -175
Risking 5.25 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $262.5 to win $150

One day at a time,
Lucky Sharp

[LuckySharp]

2019 Results: 13-8 +14.86 units (+$743) / Average Odds = -110

• NBA: 6-3 +8.40 units (+$420)
• NHL: 5-4 +3.70 units (+185)
• NFL Playoffs: 1-1 -0.24 units (-$12)
• CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)

January 11th

NO NHL TODAY

One day at a time,
Lucky Sharp

[casola]

Thanks for sharing your plays, found this thread a few days ago and followed your last three winners 👍 What is your favourite sport to cap?

[LuckySharp]

Hey Casola. Thanks for the kind words. My favourite sport is NCAA Basketball, come March Madness, but it makes up only 10 of my 600 wagers each year. I love handicapping MM because, to me, it is more about finding teams that I expect to go on runs in the tournament and then backing them until they're knocked out and less about finding value in individual games.

Approximately 210 of my wagers each year comes from the MLB (regular season, system, playoffs) and while the games might be jam-packed with excitement, the sport is so analytical (and I love trying to make sense of data) so I would say that is my favourite sport to handicap. I also love following certain starting pitchers, making season-long projections about them and trying to find spots in which they present value or I have a good read. This type of prediction is more exciting to me as it is individualized and I almost build personal relationships with these pitchers (even though they have no idea who I am haha).

I hope this answers your question and that you have an awesome night!

[LuckySharp]

2019 Results: 14-8 +17.86 units (+$893) / Average Odds = -110

• NBA: 7-3 +11.40 units (+$570)
• NHL: 5-4 +3.70 units (+185)
• NFL Playoffs: 1-1 -0.24 units (-$12)
• CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)

January 12th

[NHL] Washington Capitals -150
Risking 4.50 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $225 to win $150

One day at a time,
Lucky Sharp

[Hman]

GL today sharp

[LuckySharp]

2019 Results: 17-9 +22.36 units (+$1,118) / Average Odds = -111

• NBA: 8-3 +14.40 units (+$720)
• NHL: 5-5 -0.80 units (-$40)
• NFL Playoffs: 3-1 +5.76 units (+$288)
• CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)

January 14th

[NHL] Montreal Canadiens +160
Risking 1.88 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $94 to win $150

One day at a time,
Lucky Sharp

[Hman]

GL today

[LuckySharp]

2019 Results: 19-9 +28.36 units (+$1,418) / Average Odds = -108

• NBA: 9-3 +17.40 units (+$870)
• NHL: 6-5 +2.20 units (+$110)
• NFL Playoffs: 3-1 +5.76 units (+$288)
• CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)

January 15th

[NHL] Pittsburgh Penguins +130
Risking 2.31 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $115.5 to win $150

One day at a time,
Lucky Sharp

[LuckySharp]

2019 Results: 19-10 +26.05 units (+$1,302.5) / Average Odds = -106

• NBA: 9-3 +17.40 units (+$870)
• NHL: 6-6 -0.11 units (-$5.5)
• NFL Playoffs: 3-1 +5.76 units (+$288)
• CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)

January 16th

[NHL] Colorado Avalanche -170
Risking 5.10 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $255 to win $150

One day at a time,
Lucky Sharp

[LuckySharp]

2019 Results: 19-12 +17.80 units (+$890) / Average Odds = -108

• NBA: 9-4 +14.25 units (+$712.5)
• NHL: 6-7 -5.21 units (-$260.5)
• NFL Playoffs: 3-1 +5.76 units (+$288)
• CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)

January 17th

[NHL] New York Islanders -150
Risking 4.50 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $225 to win $150

One day at a time,
Lucky Sharp

[Hman]

GL tonight

[LuckySharp]

2019 Results: 20-14 +14.50 units (+$725) / Average Odds = -109

• NBA: 9-6 +7.95 units (+$397.5)
• NHL: 7-7 -2.21 units (-$110.5)
• NFL Playoffs: 3-1 +5.76 units (+$288)
• CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)

January 18th

[NHL] Ottawa Senators +1.5 (-143)
Risking 4.30 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $214.50 to win $150

One day at a time,
Lucky Sharp

[LuckySharp]

2019 Results: 21-14 +17.50 units (+$875) / Average Odds = -109

• NBA: 9-6 +7.95 units (+$397.5)
• NHL: 8-7 +0.79 units (+$39.5)
• NFL Playoffs: 3-1 +5.76 units (+$288)
• CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)

January 19th

Two NHL wagers today (in lieu of the All-Star Break next week).

[NHL] Pittsburgh Penguins +130
Risking 2.31 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $115 to win $150

[NHL] Nashville Predators -200
Risking 6.00 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $300 to win $150

One day at a time,
Lucky Sharp

[LuckySharp]

2019 Results: 21-14 +6.04 units (+$302) / Average Odds = -109

• NBA: 9-7 +4.80 units (+$240)
• NHL: 8-9 -7.52 units (-$376)
• NFL Playoffs: 3-1 +5.76 units (+$288)
• CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)

January 20th

[NHL] New York Islanders -195
Risking 5.85 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $292.5 to win $150

One day at a time,
Lucky Sharp

[LuckySharp]

2019 Results: 22-14 +9.04 units (+$452) / Average Odds = -110

• NBA: 9-7 +4.80 units (+$240)
• NHL: 9-9 -4.52 units (-$226)
• NFL Playoffs: 3-1 +5.76 units (+$288)
• CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)

January 21st

Two for today as two bets with value pop-out and I am anticipating there will be a day or two with no wagers (as there are only ten combined NHL games to handicap on the final four days of this month).

[NHL] St. Louis Blues -110
Risking 3.30 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $165 to win $150

[NHL] Minnesota Wild +160
Risking 1.88 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $94 to win $150

One day at a time,
Lucky Sharp

[LuckySharp]

2019 Results: 23-19 +5.35 units (+$267.5) / Average Odds = -109

• NBA: 9-8 +1.41 units (+$70.5)
• NHL: 10-10 -4.82 units (-$241)
• NFL Playoffs: 3-1 +5.76 units (+$288)
• CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)

January 22nd
Two again for today due to the All-Star Break!

[NHL] Calgary Flames -179
Risking 5.37 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $268.5 to win $150

[NHL] Detroit Red Wings +140
Risking 2.14 units to win 3.00 units / Risking $107 to win $150

One day at a time,
Lucky Sharp

[LuckySharp]

2019 Results: 25-19 +11.35 units (+$567.5) / Average Odds = -108

• NBA: 9-8 +1.41 units (+$70.5)
• NHL: 12-10 +1.18 units (+$59)
• NFL Playoffs: 3-1 +5.76 units (+$288)
• CFB Bowls: 1-0 +3 units (+$150)

No NHL until January 28th. Enjoy the All-Star Break!

One day at a time,
Lucky Sharp