EP36: Light The Lamp Playoffs Edition

[EaglesPhan36]

Been awhile since I posted in the puck section. Still been making some plays here and there, mostly totals. Gonna post for the remainder of the playoffs and watch that money roll outta my pocket.


Game 1: Carolina @ Pittsburgh UNDER 5.5 (-120)
Only once in their four regular season meetings did the total go over 5 goals and that game was not started by Cam Ward. Ward held the Pens to 3 goals in two starts this season. Fleury gave up 6 goals in 3 starts vs. Carolina. Game 1s for both these teams in the post-season have all finished at 5 goals. Carolina losing 4-1 twice, Pittsburgh winning 4-1 and losing 3-2. Hurricanes have been pretty stout on the road in the playoffs, giving up 19 goals in 8 games. Of course, this is a different animal against the mighty Pens offense. Remember though that the Flyers did limit the Pens to 7 goals in their three home games in Round 1. It was really the Caps shaky defense that got the ball rolling for the Pittsburgh offense. Carolina has been solid on the PK in the post season and will need to be against the Pens who had 9 PP goals in the Caps series. The Pens avoided dumb penalties for the most part vs. Washington and will hope to do the same against the Canes. Although Carolina's PP unit has struggled, Just 4 PP goals in their last 10 games and just 3/19 vs. Boston. All in all, I think this is going to be a bit of a feeling out process and the Pens might struggle slightly early adjusting to a team that will be a lot better defensively in Carolina. Ward will need to continue to stand on his head & Fleury needs to get tougher to keep this # under.

[kotzwell88]

hmm...i still dk, who do you think wins su

[EaglesPhan36]

Probably say the Penguins, but I don't like the price. Carolina hasn't gotten off to good starts in Game 1s so far in the playoffs. Also, their January win in Pittsburgh was one of the few times they've won on the road vs. Pens. Last 10 between these two has been home dominated although it was split during the 2008-2009 regular season with each winning on the other's ice.

[kotzwell88]

so what ur saying is stay away from it

[EaglesPhan36]

Your call bro. I just don't like laying favorites of much more than -150 especially early in a series when anything can happen.

[EaglesPhan36]

3-2 baby. Just the way Daddy likes it. UNDER.

[EaglesPhan36]

Game 2: Blackhawks/Red Wings OVER 5.5 (-130)
This is a series where I believe the OVER has a chance every game. I'll be riding it as long as they fail to adjust the total upward. Rememeber, in the regular season meetings there were 6 goals or more scored in 4 of the 6 meetings. Especially in Detroit I like the OVER as the Wings have scored 4 goals or more in 5 of their 7 home playoff games. The other two, they scored 3. On the road in the playoffs, Chicago has played just one total under 6 in 7 tries. They've given up 26 goals in that span and scored 25. You have to like even more in Game 1 that there were 7 goals despite only 5 power plays all-game with one cashing in. The Wings continue to pound the net with close to 40 shots every game and that's always going to give the OVER a bigger chance.

[Unitage]

-130?
get a better book, eating into your profits

[EaglesPhan36]

Most books I have seen have this at -130. Sure, I'd love to get a Pinnacle line of -119, but no can do. Besides, you pick right ... you win and the price matters not. You lose, you lose. That's how it works out in the end.

[EaglesPhan36]

Wanted to go with Carolina as they've made solid adjustments from Game 1s to 2s this post-season, but with Ruutu doubtful and Cole questionable ... can't see that as a solid wager now. Probably sitting out today and then riding with the OVER in Chicago tomorrow. GL fellas.

[edlaw]

like your under,cashed on it the other nite,no firepower for canes,also had canes plus 1.5 cashed on that too,but tonite like the pens to strong,another under,fluery great @ home,ward great goalie this doesnt go over until canes go home,3-2 or 4-1 pens, pens SU,under 5.5 usually these games go 2 games of unders b/4 they go over.,exception to the rule ie... hawks and reds... BOL ever-1 love comments thanks all.

[EaglesPhan36]

Game 3: Red Wings/Blackhawks OVER 5.5 (-125)
Thought about the under for a second here, but will keep with my instincts from the get-go of this series that I think the OVER will win out 65-70% of the games in this series. Datsyuk being out does not concern me a ton for Detroit. Yes, his presence will be missed, but quite frankly he hasn't produced much in the post-season. Khabibulin reportedly sat out practice with an illness, so if he's less than 100% ... Wings could pounce for some goals. Expecting the Hawks to be amped up at home where they really have to recapture this series if it's going to be a series.

[EaglesPhan36]

Perfect example tonight why I think the OVER makes sense until this series ends. Detroit looked dead in the water and then bang bang, 3 goals to tie it and we got 6 at the end of two.

[EaglesPhan36]

Game 4: Red Wings/Blackhawks OVER 5.5 (-130)
I see some people questioning whether to switch up their strategy on totals in this series with Huet in. For me, no way. He played Detroit twice during the regular season and both totals hit past this number. The bigger question is Martin Havlat playing or not? That likely will influence my decision on this play more than the goalie. Havlat is a huge loss for the Hawks if he can't go. Unlike Pavel Datsyuk, the injured Detroit points leader, Havlat has been very productive in the post season and would be missed dearly in the game. If Havalt is out, I may change this to Red Wings -120. Will wait and see here in the next couple hours before placing my wager.

[EaglesPhan36]

Havlat & Datsyuk both out. Also hearing Lidstrom is out for Detroit. Think I am going to pass on a play here today. Under though might be decent, although tough to gauge how Huet will respond to a full game.

[EaglesPhan36]

Nevermind. Havlat IS IN. So I will take the OVER at 5.5 (-120). GL fellas.

[Winnipeg Jets]

huet suckssssssssssssssss. over 2.5 in the books

[EaglesPhan36]

Just way too much firepower in this series to risk the under. Hopefully they hold it steady at 5.5 for Game 5. Unfortunately that's gonna be the last game in this series.

[EaglesPhan36]

Game 4: Pittsburgh/Carolina OVER 5.5 (-120)
I think after back-2-back games of 7 & 6 goals by Pittsburgh, it is fairly safe to say they have broken Cam Ward, much the way they did with Varlamov in the Washington series. The fact that Pittsburgh has scored 13 of their 16 goals at even strength has to be disheartening. The Pens continue to pepper Ward with shots with 40+ in the last two games. Fleury hasn't exactly been a brick wall, letting in 6 goals in the last two games. I don't think Pittsburgh will get 6 or more again, but there's a good probability that someone walks out a 4-2 or 5-2 winner tonight I think.

[losturmarbles]

carolina has lost the last 2 because their defense has gotten gased and exposed. i think they step it up tonight, run shorter shifts and work on plugging up the neutral zone as much as possible. that's the only way carolina is going to be able to win. if youre playing the over, you might as well parlay it with pit ml. but i think the goals are going to be hard to come by tonight.

[EaglesPhan36]

No parlays for me. I win maybe 10% of those. Rather go straight up. Honestly, I think the key is early goals. They tend to help panic the other team into making mistakes or changing their style. There's been three first period goals inside the first 4:10 in the last 2 games.

[EaglesPhan36]

Game 1: Penguins/Red Wings UNDER 6 (-130)
Books seem to be banking on everyone believing that offense will prevail here. UNDER though is 6-2-2 in the last 10 meetings and last year's Stanley Cup Finals had only one game that hit above 6 goals. Worth a shot in the opener as the two teams might be a bit tight to start without a solid flow of goals just yet.

[EaglesPhan36]

Nice.

[EaglesPhan36]

No play for me tonight as the back-2-back games makes it difficult to predict how both teams will bounce back. If anything, I'd take a small shot on the Pens. Without those funky board bounces last night, it was a tie game pretty much. Have a feeling tonight might be won or lost on special teams.

[EaglesPhan36]

Game 4: Red Wings/Penguins UNDER 5.5 (+100)
The series between these two over the past two seasons favors the UNDER at around 65% or so. Last game despite the 1st period onslaught, it took a late empty netter to get past this total. Pittsburgh is still having trouble generating shots (21 in Game 3) and Fleury was better in Game 3.