Flea Hotel's NHL Legend's Club

[sedwards86]

What is covers.com? Share the wealth!

Covers.com is good for checking out odds from different books as well as teams' last ten games overall, as well as last ten head-to-head.

They have a forum as well, just like this site.

http://www.covers.com/Forum/ViewThread/102372020

[sedwards86]

He started doing puck lines and such, but now he's all totals.

[weekndornah]

Hey weekendornah, were you tailing a guy named pederson that made like 20Gs over a month and got busted in a week, than all of sudden he got bitchslapped by a dozen trolls and quit posting? That was unreal, man

I swear I thought the guy was working for vegas

Haha yup I was on that guy. Dude went from 78% posted winner with a 5 digit & 20% ROI to negative in almost no time.

I still think he's a genuine guy, I had some good wins tailing him. But man he took a beating so I never went back into that thread. I'll check it out now to see how he's doing lol
EDIT: lmao hasn't posted his picks or stats since pretty much New Year's. RIP his bankroll

[Flea Hotel]

Oh God, no thanks. I've got enough guys to tail here and enough to do. I took a two minute look at that site and I saw enough. Sometimes ignorance is bliss... Might be entertaining if I had an extra 20 hours a day. Thanks tho, and PM me the link too

PM the link broski. I go on Covers a lot but there's no specific person I tail anymore. All the guys I used to tail stopped posting after they hit a cold streak bc there's a fuk ton of trolls on Covers that come out of the woodwork as soon as you lose.
Covers is good for reading opinions and hot takes and analysis on big games. Hundreds of threads get posted every day in every sport subforum.

[knicksrulez]

Weird as it may seem, guy was a good caper, just had very poor bankroll management, I believe if he would've just flat bet his picks, he was hitting nearly 60%, but his plays would vary from $50 to 4k, impossible to be successful doing this, that is classical example of how NOT to bet without money management, and he claimed he was an accountant at some point

I think I caught most of the thread, it started as cocky winner profit caper, than turned into a desperate chasing guy that one would pity, at last it was pure comedy, I remember the day that former SBR poster TPowell bashed at everyone in PT and 15 minutes later showed his face there, I think I spent the rest of the day laughing, sad state of affairs, tho

Haha yup I was on that guy. Dude went from 78% posted winner with a 5 digit & 20% ROI to negative in almost no time.

I still think he's a genuine guy, I had some good wins tailing him. But man he took a beating so I never went back into that thread. I'll check it out now to see how he's doing lol
EDIT: lmao hasn't posted his picks or stats since pretty much New Year's. RIP his bankroll

[weekndornah]

Weird as it may seem, guy was a good caper, just had very poor bankroll management, I believe if he would've just flat bet his picks, he was hitting nearly 60%, but his plays would vary from $50 to 4k, impossible to be successful doing this, that is classical example of how NOT to bet without money management, and he claimed he was an accountant at some point

I think I caught most of the thread, it started as cocky winner profit caper, than turned into a desperate chasing guy that one would pity, at last it was pure comedy, I remember the day that former SBR poster TPowell bashed at everyone in PT and 15 minutes later showed his face there, I think I spent the rest of the day laughing, sad state of affairs, tho

Yea he had one day where he lost 8k in profits. Went from 18k ROI to 10k iirc. Did a lot of 1k bets that day when his most of his bets were 100-300. All downhill from there

[Flea Hotel]

That's pretty much how it goes for 95%+ of good cappers. They can pick winners, they just can't manage their bankroll or resist chasing losses. Two totally different, and contrasting skillsets. A guy who caps at 55% with discipline will always crush the action junkie who hovers around 60%. Once the roll is gone, it's gone. Then you turn into "one of them".....

Yea he had one day where he lost 8k in profits. Went from 18k ROI to 10k iirc. Did a lot of 1k bets that day when his most of his bets were 100-300. All downhill from there

[knicksrulez]

You should write a book, I know I'd buy it

That's pretty much how it goes for 95%+ of good cappers. They can pick winners, they just can't manage their bankroll or resist chasing losses. Two totally different, and contrasting skillsets. A guy who caps at 55% with discipline will always crush the action junkie who hovers around 60%. Once the roll is gone, it's gone. Then you turn into "one of them".....

[Flea Hotel]

Back when I graduated from high school, a bunch of dudes from my high school started playing online poker "professionally". Sure enough, they were making a few grand a week at one point, back when you could have a solid edge over the average table (now more or less everyone plays fine and even the best players edge is almost negligible unless you go to a casino with a lot of drinkers playing at your table.) Anyway, one guy, still a good friend of mine, got up to about 150k or so and then decided to move to Monaco. He got up to a few hundred thousand Euros and was living the life. Then, he had a really bad weekend and now he does construction in Oshawa, just outside of Toronto. He should write the book. He spent two years building up nearly a half million dollar CAD bankroll and lost it all in a few days, playing way out of his limit and then chasing losses. He also liked booze, drugs and all the other stuff that go along with it. Someone should write a good book about all those dork kids who made money during the poker boom around 2004-2007 and see which fast food stores they work at now, or which minimum security prisons they went to for tax evasion.

You should write a book, I know I'd buy it

[QuantumLeap]

Well, the Pens were home from a road trip and the Blues were 3-0-1 against them in their last 4 trips to Pitt, I thought the Pens would score at least 1 goal though.

- Ottawa has been on fire lately. Of course they would get up for this game at home against a hot team on a b2b. I realize it's easy to say now though. Either way, Flea's sole selection cashed yet again! Crazy!

Good points. Someone else posted yesterday about the Caps being on a b2b last night and the TT was 2.5 so there was reason to be skeptical of betting them.

[QuantumLeap]

My older brother was a Gretzky super fan. He wanted me to be named Gretzky. My earliest memories are of the Kings beating the Flames in 1991 and my brother making me watch VHS tapes of the Oilers in the mid 80s. I was 3 or 4 during that final and I can remember the Kings losing in OT at the old forum. I've hated the Habs ever since, weird since I grew up and live in Montreal. I was a fan of his until he retired. I saw him every time LA, St Louis or the Rangers came to Montreal. Saw him at MSG a few times. Still my fav player. Wish I could have been my age now in 1981. I wonder what the TT's would be for those Oiler teams LOL.

I was your age back in 1981. I remember Gretzky's rookie year (79-80). I was a Marcel Dionne fan (Kings fan all the way) and Gretzky and Dionne tied for most points scored in 1980. I remember telling my friend (also a Kings fan) about how this young guy Gretzky would never be as good as Dionne and how he must have been lucky to tie him for most points. LOL!

I eventually became a Gretzky fan and was shocked to find out he was coming to LA to play for the Kings. I even bought his sweater and it hangs on my wall today. When I visited Toronto I went to Gretzky's restaurant and visited the NHL Hall of Fame. I got to touch the cup.

[readytowinem]

[Flea Hotel]

Damn. I wish I could have seen him and the Oilers in their prime. Do you remember if people bet NHL back then? What would a total be on a 1984 Oilers team be I wonder? o10.5?

I was your age back in 1981. I remember Gretzky's rookie year (79-80). I was a Marcel Dionne fan (Kings fan all the way) and Gretzky and Dionne tied for most points scored in 1980. I remember telling my friend (also a Kings fan) about how this young guy Gretzky would never be as good as Dionne and how he must have been lucky to tie him for most points. LOL!

I eventually became a Gretzky fan and was shocked to find out he was coming to LA to play for the Kings. I even bought his sweater and it hangs on my wall today. When I visited Toronto I went to Gretzky's restaurant and visited the NHL Hall of Fame. I got to touch the cup.

[Flea Hotel]

Alright, I'll find us a winner. Off to the lab.

[Flea Hotel]

Today's play. I usually don't bet a side ML but today is an exception. I love the Rangers ML (-145) but I have a better pick.
(YTD, +23.04u)

Edmonton ML (+120) 1u to win 1.2u

[Flea Hotel]

I also like the Rangers ML and maybe even in regulation. The o2.5 TT for the Rangers is -155 which I'm playing but I'm not posting, and I'm not sure how much I'll play it for. I'll probably watch this game and live bet it, especially if NY gets down a goal in the first. My models have the Oilers winning almost 60% of the time tonight, so at +120, it's an automatic full unit play for me. This line should move once people realize the Oilers are 5-1 in their last six and playing on three days rest. They crushed Calgary 7-3 Saturday night and rested teams coming off a 3 goal+ win are over 65% ATS this season. For those of you who insist on team totals, Edmonton o2.5 is +105 which is something to consider. I sort of expect a low scoring game, maybe 2-1 but 3-2 is also popping up on the models. I'd just take the ML at +120. The under is worth consideration but then if Edmonton wins 4-2, you'll be bummed, especially since the under is set at 5 or juiced heavy at 5.5. I like Edmonton to win here. I do expect this game to be close so the prop bet of this game going to OT (+275) is interesting. Usually games to go to OT are +300 to +350 so I'm not only one who thinks this bet is live. Personally, I will prob put 2 units on Edmonton ML and 1 unit on the game to go to OT as a weird high-risk high-reward semi hedge.

With all that conjecture, if you want to tail me, I recommend putting a unit on Edmonton ML and enjoy the game.

[Bedard]

Good luck, I'm on PHI/NYR over 5.5, I'll tail for half a unit your EDM ML!

[JoeDeagan]

People new to betting hockey. Here is a quick summary.

When you bet on a side, you have different options. The most common is the ML, the same as any sport. You're betting for your side to win the game. OT and the SO are included. If you take Montreal ML tonight, it's expensive but if they win in a shootout, you cash.

Also, you can bet "in 60 minutes". This means your team will NOT need OT to win the game. For example, if Montreal wins the game tonight and there is NO OT, that bet wins. These bets are much less expensive because many games go to OT. I usually play these when I think a PL (explanation coming soon) could cash but I'm worried about it being 3-2 with 2 minutes to play and they take out the goalie and no one can grab that empty netter. I call it a PuckLine Lite myself. Hasn't caught on with any book.

Then, there is the PL -1.5. This means not only will your team win in regulation, but they will win by 2 or more goals. So, let's say tonight, Montreal is up 3-2 with a minute left in regulation and the Flames pull their goaltender. If you took the PL -1.5, all you want in life is for someone to put a goal in the empty net. If they do, unless the Flames score down 4-2, you win. PL's are high risk, high reward. Currently, the PL -1.5 for the Habs game is +170 at 5Dimes. Then there is the PL -2.5. If you think your team is going to destroy the other team, you can take the extremely risky PL -2.5, which means your team has to win by 3 or more goals. Some books offer PL -3.5's and even -4.5's. While the PL -1.5 can be profitable, anything more than that is not value betting long term.

Then, there is the PL +1.5. They are incredibly juiced because if your team loses by one or wins outright, your bet wins. So, if you take the Flames PL +1.5 tonight and they lose 3-2 IN REGULATION or in OT or in a SO, your bet cashes. These are rarely played due to the insane amount of juice. Books love them. The PL +1.5 for the Flames tonight is -190. I don't think I've ever played a PL +1.5 in my life. The good thing about them is your team can lose by one and you still window, the bad thing is the ridiculous juice.

Finally, is the infamous Reverse Puck Line (RPL). Let's say you think the book has it wrong and the Habs will get crushed tonight. If you take the RPL -1.5 on the Flames, and the Flames win 4-0, you get +440. Unlike the PL +1.5, these can be profitable. I play these from time to time when I think the book has a pick em bet too sharp to one side, I might play the underdog at incredible plus money. Every morning when you look at the scores, you'll see examples of when an RPL cashes, a PL -1.5 cashed, a PL -2.5 cashed, and sometimes, a RPL -2.5 cashed. Regretably, we don't know the scores yet or no one would be reading this shyte.

For all who bet hockey, sorry for the Hockey Betting 101 but a lot of people don't really like hockey, they just like cash money. Hell, I was tailing some guy a couple of years ago who was a cash money machine betting cricket and I had no clue how to bet until I googled it.

Thanks, it makes perfect sense. Intelligently written.

[Flea Hotel]

I like that over too... Haven't hit the button on it yet because I'm worried the Flyers won't do their share.

Good luck, I'm on PHI/NYR over 5.5, I'll tail for half a unit your EDM ML!

[Flea Hotel]

TY, I've been in university for what seems like forever so I have quite a bit of experience writing.

Thanks, it makes perfect sense. Intelligently written.

[weekndornah]

Why do you like Rangers ML if you don't mind me asking? I love your Edmonton write up

[Flea Hotel]

I don't have time for a long write up, and I think the game could be close if Lundy plays bad but... off the top of my head. Philly is 0-4 in their last 4 after giving up 2+ in their last game while NYR is 4-1 in their last 5 vs the Metro conference. The over is 4-0 in the Rangers last 4 playing on a days rest. The Flyers goaltending is sketchy to say the least, and while Lundqvist is having a terrible year, for him, I still believe he's one of the best in the game and I expect him to turn it around after the All Star break.

Moreover, he's been playing better of late. NYR is is playing six of their next seven at home and while not an important variable, teams who have long stretches at home typically play well at the start of the stretch. Their offence is averaging almost 3.5 goals a game, which is 2nd in the league. That versus the 27th "best" defence in the league, possesed by the Flyers, is why I'm going with NYR.

Also, the Flyers are 1-9 in their last 10 road games and 3-7 in their last 10 vs the Rangers. I like NYR 5, PHIL 2, give or take. Hope that helped!

Why do you like Rangers ML if you don't mind me asking? I love your Edmonton write up

[readytowinem]

[TheDB]

Hey Flea, I'm on Edmonton as well. Love them as a dog here. Seeing you on them too just makes me glad we're on the same side! Go get it

[QuantumLeap]

Damn. I wish I could have seen him and the Oilers in their prime. Do you remember if people bet NHL back then? What would a total be on a 1984 Oilers team be I wonder? o10.5?

I started betting in the mid-80's and sucked at it so I didn't start betting again until around 2003 so I don't know anything about the NHL totals back then.

I used to live in Southern California so I got to see the Great One play in person. A guy I worked with played for an amateur squad that got to play a game after the Kings were done so I got to sit about 5 rows up. The thing I remember most about that is that the amateurs skated soooo much slower than the NHL pros.

[TheDB]

Covers.com is good for checking out odds from different books as well as teams' last ten games overall, as well as last ten head-to-head.

They have a forum as well, just like this site.

http://www.covers.com/Forum/ViewThread/102372020

Man, I opened up an account on Covers last week to start posting plays and the first person to write in my thread asked if I was the same DB as on Twitter. I said yeah thinking he might be referring to back when I used to only post plays on Twitter as my own way of tracking my plays, had a few good people following and back then you would only ever get encouragement and positive responses to Tweets. Nowadays its just Troll-City so i stopped. Had been lurking on Covers for years but never posted my plays, knowing the amount of trolling that goes on theres as well... Anyway, I thought I recognized this guys name so assumed he had been one of my followers. So I said "yes" to answer his question. Next thing I know, I got banned from Covers. Sent an e-mail asking why I got banned after my first post. The reply that I got was that a mod had decided that I went agains the Terms by "promoting a Twitter handle". I didn't write the name of the handle, never promoted it, never gave any other info. Simply answered yes to a question. I explained that I had no secret agenda and wasn't trying to promote any twitter handle or site or whatever and that simply wanted to share posts and discuss plays with the community. He replied that "they support their Mods decisions". I told him it was ridiculous that I was so quickly judged to have broken the terms and I pointed out that in their "terms" they also say they will always investigate the situation and will avoid needlessly banning users, keeping banning to a minimum, and that they want fairness for everyone. His answer was that he "looked into it, and he would support his moderators and keep the ban in place". I thought it was absolutely pathetic of them. Ended up coming here and I find the community to be so much more respectful and welcoming than Covers was.

[knicksrulez]

Crazy, man, crazy shit...

Yeah, welcome man, here is much better despite everything, my only advice to you is to keep a distance from PT (that's Players Talk), 90% of trolls are there, and the few ones that hang around in the subs get bashed by the regulars almost immediately

Man, I opened up an account on Covers last week to start posting plays and the first person to write in my thread asked if I was the same DB as on Twitter. I said yeah thinking he might be referring to back when I used to only post plays on Twitter as my own way of tracking my plays, had a few good people following and back then you would only ever get encouragement and positive responses to Tweets. Nowadays its just Troll-City so i stopped. Had been lurking on Covers for years but never posted my plays, knowing the amount of trolling that goes on theres as well... Anyway, I thought I recognized this guys name so assumed he had been one of my followers. So I said "yes" to answer his question. Next thing I know, I got banned from Covers. Sent an e-mail asking why I got banned after my first post. The reply that I got was that a mod had decided that I went agains the Terms by "promoting a Twitter handle". I didn't write the name of the handle, never promoted it, never gave any other info. Simply answered yes to a question. I explained that I had no secret agenda and wasn't trying to promote any twitter handle or site or whatever and that simply wanted to share posts and discuss plays with the community. He replied that "they support their Mods decisions". I told him it was ridiculous that I was so quickly judged to have broken the terms and I pointed out that in their "terms" they also say they will always investigate the situation and will avoid needlessly banning users, keeping banning to a minimum, and that they want fairness for everyone. His answer was that he "looked into it, and he would support his moderators and keep the ban in place". I thought it was absolutely pathetic of them. Ended up coming here and I find the community to be so much more respectful and welcoming than Covers was.

[JoeDeagan]

Man, I opened up an account on Covers last week to start posting plays and the first person to write in my thread asked if I was the same DB as on Twitter. I said yeah thinking he might be referring to back when I used to only post plays on Twitter as my own way of tracking my plays, had a few good people following and back then you would only ever get encouragement and positive responses to Tweets. Nowadays its just Troll-City so i stopped. Had been lurking on Covers for years but never posted my plays, knowing the amount of trolling that goes on theres as well... Anyway, I thought I recognized this guys name so assumed he had been one of my followers. So I said "yes" to answer his question. Next thing I know, I got banned from Covers. Sent an e-mail asking why I got banned after my first post. The reply that I got was that a mod had decided that I went agains the Terms by "promoting a Twitter handle". I didn't write the name of the handle, never promoted it, never gave any other info. Simply answered yes to a question. I explained that I had no secret agenda and wasn't trying to promote any twitter handle or site or whatever and that simply wanted to share posts and discuss plays with the community. He replied that "they support their Mods decisions". I told him it was ridiculous that I was so quickly judged to have broken the terms and I pointed out that in their "terms" they also say they will always investigate the situation and will avoid needlessly banning users, keeping banning to a minimum, and that they want fairness for everyone. His answer was that he "looked into it, and he would support his moderators and keep the ban in place". I thought it was absolutely pathetic of them. Ended up coming here and I find the community to be so much more respectful and welcoming than Covers was.

Their mods are absolutely the worst, they will allow people to abuse and bash on good cappers, driving them out of that community. They won't block those annoying people that keeps on advertising all over the place. But they do stupid things like this... lol. Incredible.

[sedwards86]

Man, I opened up an account on Covers last week to start posting plays and the first person to write in my thread asked if I was the same DB as on Twitter. I said yeah thinking he might be referring to back when I used to only post plays on Twitter as my own way of tracking my plays, had a few good people following and back then you would only ever get encouragement and positive responses to Tweets. Nowadays its just Troll-City so i stopped. Had been lurking on Covers for years but never posted my plays, knowing the amount of trolling that goes on theres as well... Anyway, I thought I recognized this guys name so assumed he had been one of my followers. So I said "yes" to answer his question. Next thing I know, I got banned from Covers. Sent an e-mail asking why I got banned after my first post. The reply that I got was that a mod had decided that I went agains the Terms by "promoting a Twitter handle". I didn't write the name of the handle, never promoted it, never gave any other info. Simply answered yes to a question. I explained that I had no secret agenda and wasn't trying to promote any twitter handle or site or whatever and that simply wanted to share posts and discuss plays with the community. He replied that "they support their Mods decisions". I told him it was ridiculous that I was so quickly judged to have broken the terms and I pointed out that in their "terms" they also say they will always investigate the situation and will avoid needlessly banning users, keeping banning to a minimum, and that they want fairness for everyone. His answer was that he "looked into it, and he would support his moderators and keep the ban in place". I thought it was absolutely pathetic of them. Ended up coming here and I find the community to be so much more respectful and welcoming than Covers was.

That guy's thread is the only thread I look at on that site. If you look through his thread, you see there isn't much traffic at all (kind of like mine lol). I was not even aware Covers.com had a forum and I go to that website daily to help with my analysis and preparation. I simply stumbled across his thread by googling "NHL betting strategy" and the Covers.com forum popped up as like the fourth or fifth search hit.

[Louisvillekid1]

Great thread man

I'll give it a try

[Flea Hotel]

I've been searching forever online for old betting lines but I can only find them for the NFL. I'd love to see a ML price of say the 85 Oilers vs the NJD in Edmonton. -445 Edmonton, O/U 11? I'll keep searching. I got to see Lemieux when he was still good and he's the best I've ever seen. I've seen Ovechkin and Crosby countless times and there is no comparison. Mario, even in this era would get 140 points at least a year. That reach was ridiculous, and he was smart driving the puck, unlike some of this era's skill guys. If Mario could play with all those back problems and beating cancer, I'm sure he'd shame Crobsy, who is soft. I hate the Habs but one thing I like about going to the Hab home games vs the Pens is hearing everyone curse at Crosby. Man, they are brutal on him. Too bad for all those fans they go home to a shit life and Crosby is rich as shit.

I started betting in the mid-80's and sucked at it so I didn't start betting again until around 2003 so I don't know anything about the NHL totals back then.

I used to live in Southern California so I got to see the Great One play in person. A guy I worked with played for an amateur squad that got to play a game after the Kings were done so I got to sit about 5 rows up. The thing I remember most about that is that the amateurs skated soooo much slower than the NHL pros.

[Flea Hotel]

I dunno knickz, I kind of like creeping around there from time to time. That's where all the degens with meth, coke, booze, child support, alimony and/or tax probs hang out and pretend they're high rollers making a killing in Vegas. It's like going to an AA meeting, except everyone's drunk as shit and doing keys of crappy coke, living "the life".

Crazy, man, crazy shit...

Yeah, welcome man, here is much better despite everything, my only advice to you is to keep a distance from PT (that's Players Talk), 90% of trolls are there, and the few ones that hang around in the subs get bashed by the regulars almost immediately

[knicksrulez]

I just go there from time to time to elevate my self-esteem

For instance, now, 3 things caught my eye:

1. Seaweed asking for the best play of the night, almost gave him Ducks to increase our chances..
2. Coach stating that live bet is the best way of betting
3. A guy who got out of prison today after 5 years in the can and he first stop is SBR

You can't make this shit up

I met my quota, digressing, back to the subs..

I dunno knickz, I kind of like creeping around there from time to time. That's where all the degens with meth, coke, booze, child support, alimony and/or tax probs hang out and pretend they're high rollers making a killing in Vegas. It's like going to an AA meeting, except everyone's drunk as shit and doing keys of crappy coke, living "the life".

[Flea Hotel]

That's what I'm talking about.

I just go there from time to time to elevate my self-esteem

For instance, now, 3 things caught my eye:

1. Seaweed asking for the best play of the night, almost gave him Ducks to increase our chances..
2. Coach stating that live bet is the best way of betting
3. A guy who got out of prison today after 5 years in the can and he first stop is SBR

You can't make this shit up

I met my quota, digressing, back to the subs..

[TheDB]

Crazy, man, crazy shit...

Yeah, welcome man, here is much better despite everything, my only advice to you is to keep a distance from PT (that's Players Talk), 90% of trolls are there, and the few ones that hang around in the subs get bashed by the regulars almost immediately

Haha Appreciate the tip, Knicks :P I'll keep that in mind!