Nhl Sidez 4 Dummiez

[HoleCamels]

Follow for plays each and every day

Jan. 4th
- Montreal Canadiens (+120)
- New York Rangers (+110)


Good Luck

[HoleCamels]

2-0 +2.3 Units last night, off to a good start in this forum
System doing well this year, Lets continue tonight

Jan. 5th
- Tampa Bay Lightning (-120)
- Columbus Blue Jackets (+115)
- St. Louis Blues (-130)
- Minnesota Wild (+120)

Good Luck

[HoleCamels]

3-3 Even Units. Back at it 2day

Jan. 8th
- Carolina Hurricanes (-130)
- Ottawa Senators (-120)
- Nashville Predators (+140)
- Minnesota Wild (+110)

Good Luck

[Flea Hotel]

Will be watching. BOL. Try to break my SBR NHL record of 25+ units in under 25 days, all 1 unit plays.

[HoleCamels]

3-1 Yesterday. Of course the only one I was iffy about lost with Nashville, got stay off those ones

6-4 +2.1 Units Overall

Jan. 9th
- Montreal Canadiens (-115)

Good Luck

[HoleCamels]

0-1 need to stay off those games with both teams on streaks. Feeling good about tonights picks

6-5 +1.1 Units Overall

Jan. 10th
-Columbus Blue Jackets (-110)
-St. Louis Blues (-120)
-Edmonton Oilers (-110)


Good Luck

[HoleCamels]

shittay day time to pick it up

6-8 -2.3 Units Overall

Jan 11.

- New York Islanders (-120)
- Montreal Canadiens (-105)
- Washington Capitals (-120)


- NYI are coming in to tonights matchup against FLA off 2 terrible loses to the 2 worst teams in the league. Theyve highly unperformed this year and while It's difficult to back a team like this laying juice I think this is a season make or break moment for them. 7 out of their next 10 are at home to close out the month and if theres ever a time to turn the season around its here. Theyve had 3 days off to clear their minds and I expect a strong effort from them here at home against an average FLA team. These teams are very close on the power ratings and Greiss and Luongo are even as well. I give the situational edge to NYI though so they are my first play

- MTL is not a difficult pick here. We get the much better team off a big loss to WSH looking to get back on track against an average WPG team high off of a big win. Montoya starting makes me less confident than if Price was in net, but Montoya is still equal to WPG's Helleybuck and has the advantage of playing behind a much stronger team. I see value because MTL is the much better team and we are getting them cheap tonight.

- WSH and PIT have a big matchup tonight both have big winning streaks. Tonight I am riding with the Capitals however. While PIT is in a revenge spot off 3 days rest, I am not a big believer in revenge spots in the NHL and find that the team that dominates the previous games, likely dominates again. WSH won the first game 7-1 off a B2B. SEVEN-ONE. While it is possible WSH has a let down spot after 2 huge wins over conference powerhouses, It is not likely that they just lay down against their most hated rival, especially at home. I also don't trust Fluery at all in net for PIT. More often than not Strength beats Finesse. Combine all that and WSH is the play

Hope I have a better night

Good Luck

[sedwards86]

Spectacular insight, man. 100% agree with you on the first pick. I thought those teams may have equal moneyline odds. The fact that the oddsmakers favor NY is a good sign.
I'm not too sure about the second. You said you were getting good value with Habs -105. Problem is this; the books don't give. Habs are far ahead of Jets. That's a fishy moneyline. Plus I'm becoming a believer in Hellebuyck.
Pens @ Caps is a tossup for me. I usually bet dogs on those games.

Good luck, man. I want to see you stick around. I enjoy your posts.

[HoleCamels]

Spectacular insight, man. 100% agree with you on the first pick. I thought those teams may have equal moneyline odds. The fact that the oddsmakers favor NY is a good sign.
I'm not too sure about the second. You said you were getting good value with Habs -105. Problem is this; the books don't give. Habs are far ahead of Jets. That's a fishy moneyline. Plus I'm becoming a believer in Hellebuyck.
Pens @ Caps is a tossup for me. I usually bet dogs on those games.

Good luck, man. I want to see you stick around. I enjoy your posts.

Thanks man I will as long as I dont tank hard lol

The MTL/WPG line is fishy but I definitely think it moved once they announced Montoya was starting. MTL usually plays more defensive with Montoya in net and since they are top 5 defense in the league and WPG can't really light up the lamp I think its a bit of an overreaction. Wish i could have got it at +120 now though lol. Pens/Caps is close but we'll see. GL

[sedwards86]

Thanks man I will as long as I dont tank hard lol

The MTL/WPG line is fishy but I definitely think it moved once they announced Montoya was starting. MTL usually plays more defensive with Montoya in net and since they are top 5 defense in the league and WPG can't really light up the lamp I think its a bit of an overreaction. Wish i could have got it at +120 now though lol. Pens/Caps is close but we'll see. GL

If I took a bet at -105 odds and it moved to +120 within hours, I would start to feel like it's me versus the world. Some men thrive with that mentality.
So that line is doing exactly what the line did on January 9, Calgary @ Winnipeg. Despite public numbers on Flames (due to Laine injury), line moved towards Jets. Jets 2 Flames 0 was the result. That was Reverse Line Movement 101. It's happening again...

[HoleCamels]

If I took a bet at -105 odds and it moved to +120 within hours, I would start to feel like it's me versus the world. Some men thrive with that mentality.
So that line is doing exactly what the line did on January 9, Calgary @ Winnipeg. Despite public numbers on Flames (due to Laine injury), line moved towards Jets. Jets 2 Flames 0 was the result. That was Reverse Line Movement 101. It's happening again...

All i can say is Montreal is a far superior team to Calgary. I didnt like calgary or winnipeg in that one. I dont follow steam because its not always right. I think its an overreaction to Montoya but good luck

[sedwards86]

I hope I didn't come off like I think I know more than you do or something. Good luck, brother.

[HoleCamels]

Its cool I like discussion. But yeah like I said you can't always follow steam. 7-4 Habs

[sedwards86]

Good job yesterday, sir.

[HoleCamels]

2-1 Last Night. I like to learn from mistakes and I don't think the Islanders game offered much value looking back at it. Obviously it is easy in hindsight but it was a very even game and the bet was basically made on the fact that the Islanders were due and I hate using that way of thinking. Feel good about things though, Time to get Rolling

8-9 -1.5 Units Overall

Jan 12.
- Boston Bruins (-105)
- Buffalo Sabres (+145)
- Minnesota Wild (-140)
- Los Angeles Kings (-130)

- BOS heads to NSH tonight for a showdown of pretty evenly matched teams. Neither teams can seem to get on a roll lately but I think this is a spot where BOS might start. They are on the back end of a 4 game road trip where theyve earned 5 out of a possible 6 pts so far. They dominated FLA and STL, and then pushed CAR to OT on a B2B with a bad back up goalie. Meanwhile NSH coming off a dissapointing effort against CHI barely squeezed out a win against a lowly VAN team in a game they were heavily favored at home. Although they are deadlocked on my power ratings, NSH is just 3-7 in their last 10 home games while BOS is one of the best road teams in the league. Combine that with the fact that they have the superior goalie in Tukka Rask and BOS is my first play

- 2nd game is a matchup of teams heading in opposite directions. BUF has quietly had a very nice week with 3 underdog victories over quality teams and a close game against CHI on the road. Their offense has come alive lately and I think they have a very good chance of continuing their recent success tonight vs TBL who have lost 4 straight and given up 22 goals in their last 4 games. They continue to be overrated team with shotty goaltending and think there is a lot of value on a young BUF team that is finally winning some games against quality competition.This could be a bounce back spot for TBL but no way are they worth laying -160 at this point. BUF is the play

- MIN's price is a bit high at -140 tonight but I still like them vs a MTL team on a B2B following that crazy game last night. I have MIN power rated as the 2nd best team in the league right now and I think there is a very good chance they win tonight in a tough spot for MTL. The fact that Price is starting makes this game a bit closer but I don't think the team in front of him will be as good as usual following that game last night. Dubnyk actually has better numbers and MIN should be in good rhythm defensively following 3 days off a successful west coast road trip. I like to lay this much usually but when I do it is on good teams in good spots.

- Ill keep this one short. LAK are in the middle of a home stand off a disappointing loss and STL only has 3 road wins in the last 2 months. STL goaltending is not good regardless of who starts and Budaj has been better than them. As long as they don't start Zatkoff or another goalie in this one, I like the LAK. If they do, then its no play


Good Luck

[HoleCamels]

2-2. Got unlucky with Rask leaving the game early and BUF couldnt get the job done but Def had the right side in LAK, and MIN. Saw a lot of people on STL so def a confidence boost

10-11 -1.5 Units

Jan 13th
- New York Rangers (-130)
- Washington Capitals (-140)
- Columbus Blue Jackets (-130)


- Both the NYR and TOR have had 5 days off heading into this matchup at MSG tonight. I'm having a hard time believing this line is so cheap so a lot of money must be coming in on TOR but I'm going the other way. NYR are a far superior team on my power ratings and I don't trust a young TOR team to pull off a big win like this against a veteran team that has had 5 days rest. Lundvist doesn't have great numbers this year but he is still a much better goalie than Anderson or whoever TOR throws. I think this line is wrong and if you give me one of top teams in the league for cheap at home against an inferior opponent I'm going to take it everytime

- Another big time matchup for WSH facing CHI @ home tonight. They have W7 in a row while CHI has W4 however these streaks a far apart in terms of dominance. WSH has dominated CLB on a W16 streak, MTL on the road, and a hungry PIT team in a revenge spot off 3 days rest. That's wins against 3 of the top 5-7 teams in the league within a week of each other in dominating fashion. Meanwhile CHI eeked out 3 1 goal victorys against BUF, CAR, and DET. They did have a strong win vs NSH but all of these games were at home against average to below average teams and they were all close games. They don't stack up to the way WSH is playing right now. And as long as WSH is at home with Holtby in net for less than -150 I'm going to be backing them against almost every team

- This is a standard play for me. We get CLB who is a top 3 team in the league vs TBL on a B2B. They did look better last night but CLB is a much better team with a much better goalie and should beat any average team on a B2B. For what its worth CLB is also 2-0 vs TBL this year winning 5-3 and 5-1 outshooting them in both games by 10+ shots. Off a loss I expect them to have a strong performance tonight.

-May also have a play on FLA but only if Halak starts for NYI. Its the first game of a B2B so theres a possibility but stayed tuned. Otherwise I see this as an incredibly even game that I won't get involved with

Good Luck

[reed_barrington]

GO CAPS! , Thanks - Reed.

[Flea Hotel]

Nice analysis. I agree with you mostly about the Rangers, I just have a funny feeling this turns into a shootout due to the goaltending and all the rest, and the style of play. I wouldn't be surprised if this was another all-star game type like that ridiculous Habs game the other day. Should be a fun game. 8-6 NYR lol

[HoleCamels]

Nice analysis. I agree with you mostly about the Rangers, I just have a funny feeling this turns into a shootout due to the goaltending and all the rest, and the style of play. I wouldn't be surprised if this was another all-star game type like that ridiculous Habs game the other day. Should be a fun game. 8-6 NYR lol

Yeah I definitely think there will be some goals scored but you never know after 5 days rest for both teams. They might try playing a bit more defensive tonight, thats why I'm laying off the total. Wouldnt be suprised it's a 10 goal game either though. NYR is just in another class than TOR so I think they win but we'll see what happens

[Flea Hotel]

Agreed. NYR is an actual contender for the cup, the Leafs are like what the Jets would have been in 80-81 if Gretzky had gone to Winnipeg instead of Edmonton. I've seen both teams live a couple of times this year and I gotta give Toronto credit, they are pretty amazing when they're on so obviously they could win but jeez louise, the Rangers should win this by a couple.

Yeah I definitely think there will be some goals scored but you never know after 5 days rest for both teams. They might try playing a bit more defensive tonight, thats why I'm laying off the total. Wouldnt be suprised it's a 10 goal game either though. NYR is just in another class than TOR so I think they win but we'll see what happens

[HoleCamels]

Agreed. NYR is an actual contender for the cup, the Leafs are like what the Jets would have been in 80-81 if Gretzky had gone to Winnipeg instead of Edmonton. I've seen both teams live a couple of times this year and I gotta give Toronto credit, they are pretty amazing when they're on so obviously they could win but jeez louise, the Rangers should win this by a couple.

Apparently not haha impressive win for TOR

[HoleCamels]

2-1. Good night winning 2 out of 3 relatively easily. Wish NYR couldve pulled it off but TOR was the right side there as Lundqvist continues to struggle. got a huge day of action so think we will be in the positive by tomorrow

12-12 -0.8 Units Overall

Jan 14th
- Boston Bruins (-140)
- Minnesota Wild (-120)
- Nashville Predators (-140)
- Ottawa Senators (-120)


- PHI has been struggling heavily since the 10 game win streak. They have only 3 wins in their last 12 games following the streak and a lot have not been pretty. Theyve been dominated in most of the games just barely squeaking out OT in a few. Their 4-1 loss to BUF was not a good sign and they weren't very impressive against VAN either in a game they should've won easily on paper. Meanwhile BOS is a team I think is about to surge. They've been impressive to me since their home loss to EDM last week and outshot NSH in their last game heavily but couldn't pull out the win. Thats a good sign going forward here vs a Flyers team that has given up 4 goals in B2B games now against BUF and VAN. I like BOS's defense and assuming Rask is good to go, we have a huge edge in goaltending as well.

- MIN has huge value here imo. Only -120 for a top tier team playing an inconsistent DAL team. I'm sure DAL will be fired up for this one but the way MIN is playing, you can't bet against them even on the road. Especially against a below average DAL team with bad goaltending. We have a huge edge in Power Rating advantage as well as the much better goalie in Dubnyk. Combine that with a cheap price and we've got a strong play

- If COL was going to start to look like an actual NHL team, they probably would have done so against ANA the other night after 5 days off. But once again they were dominated start to finish and cemented themselves as the worst team in the league. Meanwhile NSH is coming off a big win against BOS and starts their 5 game road trip against a team they are 3-0 against in REGULATION this year. Yes, -140 on the road is a lot to lay, but I believe NSH success will continue tonight vs a very very bad COL team

- TOR is 2-7 on B2Bs this year. They lost those games by an avg of 2 goals and have losses to COL, NJ, and NYI. Their 2 wins were against ARI, and a struggling TBL team also on a B2B . OTT is a better than all those teams, they are hot, AND they are playing at home. Their last 2 games were against teams on B2Bs and they won both of those games by 2+ goals at home. Don't get me wrong TOR is definitely an up and coming team but this is a bad spot for them following a big win last night. They poured out a lot of energy for that win and they might not have a lot left in the tank here. It will also likely be McElhinney's first start in a TOR uniform as well. He has decent numbers this year, but now he doesnt have the luxury of playing behind a dominant CLB team and will probably have some first game jitters in a hostile environment. I like the way Condon is playing right now and think OTT should handle business again tonight

-Stay Tuned for any last minute goalie changes. If Rask or Dubnyk are out then BOS and MIN will not be plays. Also a few other leans on this big slate but gonna need the lines to drop a bit

-Pats -15 as my free non NHL pick of the day

Good Luck

[Bedard]

Love the MIN pick, gl man!

[HoleCamels]

No Play on the Minnesota Wild as it looks like Kuemper is starting

[Bedard]

No Play on the Minnesota Wild as it looks like Kuemper is starting

Same here, saw that just before locking my pick!

[reed_barrington]

hopefully wild still scores a ton...

[HoleCamels]

Should be high scoring game

[HoleCamels]

Well wish we could have got the 3-0 night but OTT couldnt get the job done. Sucks the Wild still won after pulling that bet but still cashed on the over and our non NHL pick of the day. As for today there isn't much but I like one play

14-13 Overall Even

Jan. 15th

-Minnesota Wild (+115)

- In general, I'm looking to bet against teams on B2B's. However I do like to take a look at some strong teams in good situations. Tonight we get MIN traveling to CHI after a crazy win in DAL without much defense. I don't think MIN is going to play that wide open again as they are a much more physical, defensive hockey team in general. They have really been lighting up the lamp a lot lately and tonight we don't have to worry about them having a terrible goalie in net again. Quite the opposite with Dubnyk who has probably been the best goalie in the NHL so far this season with a 1.77, .940. CHI just got destroyed 6-0 against WSH, which is a team I think the Wild relate to pretty closely. As I said the other day, I haven't been impressed with CHI lately and I don't think they stack up to MIN level of play right now. This is one of the few spots you can get a top tier team in the NHL for cheap and while I wouldn't bet the house on this one, I still like MIN to win a close game

KC -125 as my free non NHL pick of the day

[sedwards86]

Minnesota has won the last five head-to-head. Dubnyk is on pace for the Venza Trophy. This is a great spot to get the Wild at + odds.

Chicago is an excellent home team and Minnesota is a great road time. Let's see what happens. I'm on board. Good luck, man.

[darrendice]

Caps are destroying everyone at the moment. I like the Wild play especially at plus. Chicago are like the flyers. Just misfiring at the moment. I think the over is also a pretty good play on this one. line is 5 so should get at least a push. Chicago are usually good for 1-2 although Holtby got a shutout.... Leaning ML and over 4.5 or 5

[HoleCamels]

1-0. Nice win with MIN in a tight game as I expected. Not a ton of plays I like today with a lot of heavy favorites but there's a couple

15-13 +1.1 Units

Jan. 16
- Buffalo Sabres (+100)
- Montreal Canadiens (-130)

- Our first game is DAL @ BUF in a 1pm start and I think this line is off. While these teams are very close in my power ratings, BUF should be favored here. DAL is 6-15 on the road this year and while BUF has a mediocre home record, they've started the new year with 2 strong home victories against WPG and PHI. They were starting to get hot last week until running into a bit of a bump in the road losing both road games on a B2B but this is a good spot to bounce back after gaining some new found confidence at home. Especially against the DAL goaltending which stays atrocious regardless of who is playing. With the early start time, and the NYR coming up tomorrow for DAL, I think they overlook a hungry, young, & undervalued BUF team.

- MTL is a standard play for me here. Not too much to talk about. We have the better team by far, the better goalie by far in Price, and we're only laying -130. Could they lose, maybe, but give me those 3 things in a good spot and I'll bet it every time

I went back and forth but I am not getting involved on WSH/PIT. I would normally bet PIT in this spot but I can't bet against WSH right now. I think this is likely where the streak ends but I wouldn't be suprised if they win either with the way Holtby is playing.

Good Luck

[HoleCamels]

1-1 yesterday. MTL lost a tough one . Not much I'm liking tonight but two plays for now

16-14 +.8 Units

Jan 17th
-Columbus Blue Jackets (-150)
-Nashville Predators (-120)

- CAR Hurricanes have won 4 in a row but If we take a closer look we see that the streak is not all that impressive. Of the 4 games, 3 of the wins were against teams on B2Bs, and the lone win against CLB came against a young goalie who isn't ready for the NHL yet. Meanwhile, CLB has been so-so since their streak ended, but has been dealing with an illness to Bobrovsky who has been a main reason for their success. They had a shaky road trip but I think this is a good spot for them to get back on their feet as long as BOB is good to go. They start a 3 game home stand tonight, and a stretch of 6 games against beatable teams over the next 2 weeks before the All Star break. I'd be surprised if they don't win at least 4 of those 6 starting tonight against an CAR team who has allowed an average of 3 GPG with their no 1 goaltender on this 4 game win streak.

- NSH continues their western road trip after a nice come from behind win over the Avalanche the other night. They have another match up against one of the bottom 5 teams in the league @ VAN and I like their chances. While VAN has been pretty good at home recently it has mostly been against below average competition like COL, ARI, NJ and against better teams in bad spots like CLG, and ANA. NSH outclasses them a bit too much here for me to even consider betting them as a home dog and regardless of who is in net for either team we get the better goalie and team overall. The games after this one on NSH's road trip get much tougher so I expect them to want to get these 2 points out of the way before facing tougher competition in the days ahead. VAN has very few wins against quality competition this year that weren't starting a shitty goalie or on a B2B. Also, with the exception of ARI, NSH has won 6 of 8 against my bottom 5 teams in the league in non B2B situations this year. For some reason ARI has their number, but I like them tonight over VAN.

LAL -1.5 as my non NHL play of the day

Good Luck

[HoleCamels]

Adding

Calgary Flames (-130)

[HoleCamels]

2-1 again. These 1-0 losses are annoying . Need that 3-0, 4-1 Night to get me going!!! Small card today but I like it. Also took a look and likely going to have 5+ picks tomorrow

18-15 +1.6 Units

Jan 18th
- Montreal Canadians (-105)
- Boston Bruins (-120)
- San Jose Sharks (+110)

- PIT travels to MTL tonight following one of the craziest games of the year vs WSH. I think they are in a very bad spot tonight against a MTL team off a tough 1-0 loss returning home where they are 16-6 this year. The biggest edge I see in this one is goaltending, or lack there of for PIT. They have given up 22 goals in their last 4 games and MTL is going to be looking to score a lot off that shut out loss. We also get a top flight goalie in Carey Price who shutout PIT 4-0 at home early in the season.

- BOS is another standard play for me here, although my standard play road favs have been letting me down of late. We get the better power rated team and the superior goalie in Rask so -120 is a cheap price to pay in a game that should be -150. Not to mention BOS is also coming off a shutout loss and will be looking to rebound hard against a bad team defensively. DET's new goalie is a little concerning because they seem to have a bit more confidence with him in net, but he still has a mediorce GAA and SV PCT. If they win this one I might be looking to back them going forward with him in net, but as for now I am rolling with BOS

- SJ/LAK games are always tight. They are 2-2 against each other here but I like SJ at a plus price. I have SJ power rated a few spots ahead of the LAK and I trust them a bit more at this point in the season. Theres a chance they start Aaron Dell who I really like, but even with Jones in net they have equal goaltending with LA. Theres also a bit to be said about them losing the past 2 in the series to LA. LA has underperformed on their home stand and I think SJ rolls into this one with some confidence after a strong win against WPG.

Also really like the ARI/WPG over 5.5 +115

Good Luck

[sedwards86]

Jared Coreau (Detroit) compared to Aaron Dell. Look at each of their opponents this season. Coreau has faced much tougher competition with 5 of his 7 games played on the road. Every game was against a playoff team, except Panthers. He is 5-1-1 through all of that. Dell has played 4 of 6 at home and only faced one playoff team, the Penguins. He lost 0-5.

Both are good, up-and-coming goalies. I believe Coreau is much better at this stage in their careers.