NHL leans

[sedwards86]

I will post games that I have leans on each day, if there are any for that particular day. The leans will be based off patterns that I have noticed by checking Covers.com every day the past three seasons. I will not be personally betting each of the leans that I post, but I will tell which one or two I am going to bet. I will track the wins/losses as well as units won/lost to help keep up with how the leans are looking down the stretch.

I do not care about the trolls who will criticize me if I do poorly. Your opinions do not matter. You do not matter. The only people I care about are my parents, my wife and kids, and my pit bull, Pacman. So if you do come on here with negativity, do not expect a response. I will give feedback to any questions, however.

[sedwards86]

12/29 Leans:

Capitals PL-1.5 (+130) (vs Devils) LOSS
Blackhawks ML+115 (@ Predators) WIN
Jets ML+115 (vs Blue Jackets) LOSS
Canadiens ML-110 (@ Panthers) WIN
Stars ML-200 (vs Avalanche) WIN
Flames ML-110 (vs Ducks) LOSS


Two bets. First one will be on the Canadiens-110. They are starting Montoya in net. I would rather them start Price, but he played last night. Florida has the 8th worse home record and Reimer (backup) is in net. I like Canadiens 4-3.
Second bet will be Hawks+115. Crawford in net for them. Preds haven't confirmed yet, but I expect Rinne, who is damn tough. Subban is questionable. I pray that he sits. Nashville is not the team I thought they would be before the season started. They've underachieved thus far. I hope it continues. Blackhawks 3-2, probably in overtime.

[sedwards86]

Me LEANS went 3-3. +0.05 units baby. Haha at least it's a positive night for my first night. However, I did win both of my BETS so that's +2.15 units won last night. I find it best when you only bet about half of your daily leans.

I will only have one lean for 12/30. That's the Sharks -1.5 (+170) versus the Flyers. I may or may not bet it. The Sharks have won the last five H2H, which I actually don't like seeing. The Sharks have definitely gotten better since the beginning of the season and are right where I expected them to be. I do think they win this game, just a little nervous about the puck line. I will make a determination on betting it or not after goalie confirmations. If the Flyers put Anthony Stolarz in net, hell I might take back everything and bet the house on them. That kid is the truth. I pray that they put Steve Mason in there.

[sedwards86]

Well, the Flyers are starting Mason like I had hoped. However, the Sharks are starting Aaron Dell, a 27 year old NHL rookie. It will be his third career start. I'm still going to bet Sharks -1.5.

[sedwards86]

Way to go San Jose! A shutout with a rookie goalie. Hell yea! Updated season totals.
My leans: 4-3. +1.75 units
My bets: 3-0. +3.85 units

Today's leans:
Devils ML +150 (vs Capitals) LOSS
Rangers PL -1.5(+175) (at Avalanche) WIN
Rangers ML-185 (at Avalanche) WIN
Canucks ML+215 (at Oilers) WIN
Sharks ML+100 (at Kings) LOSS


I will post my bets just as soon as goalie confirmations are made, plus I need to study over my leans.

[sedwards86]

Big games today.

[sedwards86]

Two bets tonight. Rangers -1.5(+175). Looks like Lundqvist will start. Varlamov is out, so Colorado has to go with backup, Calvin Pickard. Their is one thing that makes me nervous about this game. Literally every single statistic says Rangers should blow the Avalanche out. I hope it isn't too good to be true.
Second bet is Sharks+100. Now we know why Dell started last night. They were saving Jones for tonight. Sharks are a hot team right now. Sharks have won last four against Kings, whatever that is worth. I honestly thought Sharks would be favored in this game. Being on the road and second night of B2B are why they are dogs.

THIS IS NOT OFFICIAL. But I can't stop myself from wagering on the biggest game of the season thus far. Blue Jackets at Wild. I have a rule for these type games. I always bet the dog. It's pretty much a tossup so I take +money bet. Sorry, no analytical reasoning. It has worked out well in 2016. NCAAB Championship (Nova over UNC). NBA Finals and Christmas Day(Cavs over Warriorettes). NFL Super Bowl (Broncos over Panthers). So tonight, I'm taking Blue Jackets +115.

[sedwards86]

12/31 LEANS:
Devils ML +150 (vs Capitals) LOSS
Rangers PL -1.5(+175) (at Avalanche) WIN
Rangers ML-185 (at Avalanche) WIN
Canucks ML+215 (at Oilers) WIN
Sharks ML+100 (at Kings) LOSS

12/31 Bets:
Rangers -1.5(+175) WIN
Sharks +100 LOSS

Plus I hit Blue Jackets +115 (off the record)

YTD Records
Leans: 7-5. +4.65 units
Bets: 4-1. +4.60 units

Hopefully 2017 is a good year for us all!

[sedwards86]

I only have one lean for Monday. It's Bruins-140 @ Devils. I despise paying juice. I prefer not to single bet these leans. I will try to find something else to parlay this lean with.

[sedwards86]

Couldn't decide on anything in NHL to parlay with Bruins (odds now -150), so I'm parlaying it with Utah Jazz-6.5. Odds are +218 for the parlay. For this thread, I will count the bet as Bruins-150 single bet since this is a NHL thread

[sedwards86]

YTD Leans: 7-6 (+3.15 units)
YTD Bets: 4-2 (+3.10 units)

Two leans today.
Capitals -165 vs. Maple Leafs
Lightning -1.5 (+175) vs. Jets

Will be waiting for goalie confirmations before deciding whether or not to bet these.

[Flea Hotel]

fwiw my models have the TBL PL being a "near miss" for me. I almost played it. Focusing mainly on the CBJ/EDM game.

YTD Leans: 7-6 (+3.15 units)
YTD Bets: 4-2 (+3.10 units)

Two leans today.
Capitals -165 vs. Maple Leafs
Lightning -1.5 (+175) vs. Jets

Will be waiting for goalie confirmations before deciding whether or not to bet these.

[sedwards86]

fwiw my models have the TBL PL being a "near miss" for me. I almost played it. Focusing mainly on the CBJ/EDM game.

I love your Edmonton pick. That one caught my eye this morning while taking my morning shit (no apples lol).
This thread is just tracking a pattern that I'm on. I use no statistical analysis whatsoever in coming up with leans. I do a little research before making bets. You are the stats man! I'll leave that to people like you. I do have a thread I'm thinking about starting based of my stats work. That way you all can laugh, maybe even fade.

[sedwards86]

Capitals -165 vs. Maple Leafs WIN
Lightning -1.5 (+175) vs. Jets LOSS

Didn't like either one enough to bet.

YTD Leans: 8-7 (+3.15 units)
YTD Bets: 4-2 (+3.10 units)

Today's lean. 1/4
Canucks -1.5 (+175) WIN

[sedwards86]

YTD Leans: 9-7. +4.90 units
YTD Bets: 4-2. +3.10 units


1/5 Leans

Bruins -1.5 (+215)
Blues -1.5 (+205)
Kings -210

Gonna bet them all. Good luck.