Sens - Islanders Value

[CatHawk]

Seems like value on the moneylines... Sens +165 , Isles +142

Ottawa won last 4 vs Kings, just beat the Sharks. Budaj 1-2 vs Sens not a great sample size but tantalizing. Senators playing great on the road. Kings are lack luster this year... at least so far. (slow to start every year right?)

Islanders playing well lately. Jackets won 5 straight and are killin it this year, but Islanders have won 5 of 6 and beat the Pens, Blues, Capitals and Rangers in that span, where as the Jackets have beat the Yotes twice, Red Wings, and the Avalanche (last 4 games). Level of competition has been tougher for Isles and they're getting it done. Also, Jackets played last night. Only thing is Isles are one of the worst teams on the road this year... Hoping they turn it around tonight.

Any thoughts or advice welcome. Good luck out there.

[Nostradam]

Thanks for your excellent comments.

Re the Isles/BJ's game, i saw this remark somewhere:

"There is still no information who will be in the net for Columbus and if they go with their backup goalie, the odds will drop even more on Islanders. Odds were dropping whole day on them and I understand why. I have projected, that Columbus should be favourite of 1.57, but those projections are made if Bobrovsky starts. Even if he starts, I will go with Islanders. I have projected that Islanders should be favourite of around 2.75, but I will go against this number.


"Islanders are playing better right now. They just beat St Louis at home and they won 5 of last 6 games. The only loss came against Detroit at home in overtime. They play more aggressive, their goalies are playing better and the result is here. They will start with Halak, who won 3 straight and has SV% of 0.945 and GAA 1.99 in those three games. Islanders also have very good recent record versus Columbus. They beat them on the road (in Columbus) in 4 of last 5 games. Columbus on other side is one of the better teams this season and they just beat Detroit yesterday, but they will play without Foligno, who is pretty big miss for them and they will be more tired than Islanders for sure. In last 4 games, when they played with 0 days rest, they are 0-4 and right now, they must face in this situation red hot Islanders, who have good record against them.


"Reason for pick


"Columbus is playing B2B game and they are 0-4 in last 4 games in this situation. They played yesterday and they will be tired for sure in this one. On the other side Islanders are playing much better winning 5 of last 6 and their first goalie finally shows, why he is first goalie. they have good recent record playing in Columbus and they are the right play tonight.


Play NY Islanders"

[Nostradam]

Concerning the LA/Sens game, which has already started, this may be of interest:

"If you keep spotting big prices like this with average teams like the Kings, you are likely going to be watching the NHL playoffs from the rail (that’s an old horse racing term that refers to bettors at the track that were broke and watched the races while leaning against the rail). In any case, the Kings are coming off a loss at home against a Carolina team that played the night before in Anaheim and lost 6-5 in OT. The Kings have dropped three of their last four games with only victory over that span occurring against the Coyotes. Los Angeles is 13-13 overall and they are also 3-7 against top-10 teams but they are priced like they’re 10 games over .500.

Meanwhile, the Sens keep getting disrespected but they keep on winning games. Mike Condon is the new Hamburglar. All Condon has done is post a .945 save percentage and a 1.68 GAA since the Senators made the move of the year so far by picking him up. It’s not just goaltending though. Ottawa has tremendous talent up front. They absolutely and without question have more snipers than the offensively challenged Kings. The Sens sharpshooters were not producing at a high rate early on but they are connecting now with 11 goals in their past two games against Pittsburgh and San Jose. The Senators always create high quality chances and in that regard, they rank 13th in the league while the Kings rank 27th. However, over the past 10 games, Ottawa ranks second in the NHL in creating high quality chances while the Kings remain near the bottom of the league. Ottawa is 16-11 and 4-3 against top-10 teams. This truly is a fair fight but it is not priced as such and therefore we simply have to play the value."

http://sportswagers.ca/nhl/picks.php?pid=18469

[CatHawk]

Thanks for reply. Looks like swing and a miss on Sens game. Def think Kings were over valued, but hey, still gotta play the games.

Tough break early 5 minute penalty for illegal check led to 2 power play goals. Then King's goal with two secs left in 2nd period.