NHL Edges - Jan 5

[Rich Boy]

Min/CBJ UNDER 5.5 -118

These teams average 5 and 5.68/game, averaging roughly 55% UNDER 5.5. Good price for this game will likely drop overnight.

Might have some more plays tomo, dont see any other great edges as of now

[Rich Boy]

Chi/Pit UNDER 5 +126

Liked this under a bit when it opened, just moved from +114 to +126 making it a good value play in my book. Both teams averaging 5.18 and 4.74 goals/game.

[Rich Boy]

Mon +105

Was hoping this line would move up a bit but dont want to risk it dropping overnight and not getting a good price.

Phi is 2nd worst in NHL for both scoring at 2.11 goals/game and -23 goal differential.
Habs are also coming off an extended rest playing their last game on the 1st, Philly played on the 2nd.

Montreal has been improving of late and should be able to shut down Philly's weak offense. Feels like a pick em game getting plus money.

[xiberia777]

Hi RB, sorry for my bad english.

I follow your posts since several weeks. I like what you do and i look with attention your analysis. I have a question. With your knowledges, It's not possible to give with your bets a confidence index ? ? ? On 5, by example : STL ML - 4/5

If not, why ? Thanks and congrats for your good runs.

[RollinDo]

I like Under 5.5 in Boston...small-medium size play

[italianbandit]

Hi RB, sorry for my bad english.


I follow your posts since several weeks. I like what you do and i look with attention your analysis. I have a question. With your knowledges, It's not possible to give with your bets a confidence index ? ? ? On 5, by example : STL ML - 4/5

If not, why ? Thanks and congrats for your good runs.

Typically, confidence (or a better word--value) is measured by how much a line is off. You can get a sense of that by how an analysis or post is written. Perhaps that is difficult for you to get since English is not your first language.

[RollinDo]

I am tailing your Minn-Columb (U 5.5) small...you're hot right now and I just looked into this one - lot of good trends toward the Under...be surprised if it even gets to 5 in regulation.

[italianbandit]

So for instance he's suggesting there is at least . 10 value on Montreal at +105.

As a baseball capper, I will typically wager around 1 unit for ever .10 value I find.

[xiberia777]

Typically, confidence (or a better word--value) is measured by how much a line is off. You can get a sense of that by how an analysis or post is written. Perhaps that is difficult for you to get since English is not your first language.

I understand very well English. I'm French and with our bookmakers the lines aren't +110 or -110 etc... it's typically @1,50 @2,55 etc... I can convert into my "@" but there is always a big difference between french bookmakers and other so we can't use it as a confidence index.

[Rich Boy]

Hey Guys, I dont think my handicapping model is sophisticated enough to exactly predict edges. I just try to find lines that are soft and will likely move in that direction as the market sharpens. As long as I beat the closer by a few cents Im happy. I use Pinnacle exclusively BTW

I risk 1 unit on dogs and to win 1 unit on all favorites

[Rich Boy]

TB/Cal OVER 5.5 +127

Almost in disbelief at this line. No total involving Calgary should be priced this low
With 2nd worst defense in the NHL giving up 3.16 goals/game this game should sail over and at this price makes it a strong play in my opinion. Once again I felt the opener was a sharper line, dont understand alot of movement in NHL lines these days...

[whareouttogetme]

TB/Cal OVER 5.5 +127

Almost in disbelief at this line. No total involving Calgary should be priced this low
With 2nd worst defense in the NHL giving up 3.16 goals/game this game should sail over and at this price makes it a strong play in my opinion. Once again I felt the opener was a sharper line, dont understand alot of movement in NHL lines these days...

After a ton of unders yesterday I think this, the caps game and the Rangers fans will go over

[Rich Boy]

I will start keeping track of my record on posted pics

YTD: 13-4, +10.89 units

[RollinDo]

TB/Cal OVER 5.5 +127

Almost in disbelief at this line. No total involving Calgary should be priced this low
With 2nd worst defense in the NHL giving up 3.16 goals/game this game should sail over and at this price makes it a strong play in my opinion. Once again I felt the opener was a sharper line, dont understand alot of movement in NHL lines these days...

I just don't see this one going Over...it may be good value - why not go for Over 5 for a better chance at a push at least? Probably only about -120 juice or so? Tampa Bay doesn't score much and 3 straight Calgary Unders - a team not scoring much at home lately.

[RollinDo]

Come on man - seriously?
3 goals in less than 1 minute to go???

Worst beat of season so far.
Just can't believe it...Every time I tail this happens.

[xiberia777]

Come on man - seriously?
3 goals in less than 1 minute to go???

Worst beat of season so far.
Just can't believe it...Every time I tail this happens.

2 empty net...

[Rich Boy]

2 bad beats already, unreal.

[xiberia777]

The magic of the NHL

[iheartAlabama]

We will get them tomorrow just ready to see another 8K bet then I know what to do Rich Boy