Thoughts on regulation time bets?

[jsmanuel]

I'm new to betting hockey. But it seems to me that -0.5 in regulation time on the favorite would be a +EV bet in the long run considering that the favorite *should* win the majority of the time.

What am I missing here? Vegas surely wouldn't give us the edge.

[Locke]

in my experience, if the dog shows up to play you are often looking at a tied game late in the third. for example in both calgary and detroit last night i had the reg bet..was fortunate to hit both without needing ot. if a dog has a two goal lead going into the third or are even up by one you will probably lose. i make a lot of regulation plays, but should probably be more selective

loads of games go to overtime. not sure the exact percentage, but it's high. if your book offers it, i recommend the -0.5 &-1 (one bet) that includes ot

[jsmanuel]

Ok thanks for the insight. I'm definitely doing to research this more.

[Hudini]

60% of time favorites win, but in regulation probably under 50%. More selectivity could give you some +. Winnipeg and Calgary last knight help me on this. Lucky with Calgary. Just try to find anything over +100

[cboogie]

Dallas

[terrortwylight]

I have been making a lot of regulation bets lately on high priced favorites. The odds make them a lot more palatable. I will tell you that I have lost a lot of those bets because the game went to OT. I don't know if it's just bad luck or the way it goes. But overall, I'm up on the season, so I'm a fan of doing it.

[jsmanuel]

Thanks for the replies guys. I'm going to do some more reading up. I'm up on them as well, and idk if it's luck or what. I do like that +100 value ones. I wonder if the ML is pretty wide if that's a better regulation bet due to it being a bigger favorite.

[terrortwylight]

At the end of the day, you need at least one goal to win a ML bet or a 0.5 regulation bet. Only real difference is OT is an automatic loss for the 0.5 regulation bet. You're still not out of the woods, even if you paid more for the ML. To me, that extra opportunity is just not worth the price difference. At least on favorites, I think it's the way to go.

On dogs, it gets a little bit trickier. For example, if I were to play the Flyers tonight on the ML, I could get it at +190. I don't think they'll win, but there's definitely a lot of value there. If I were to take the Flyers on 0.5 regulation, I'd get +320. That's $1.30 more than I was getting on the ML. However, I'm also losing opportunities to win on a bet that's already pretty unlikely to hit. For me, that's a ML situation or pass. I don't perceive as much value with that as I did at +190.