Game 4 today, Hawks ~ -150
My site offers:
Series Ends in 5 +275
Series ends in 6 +155
Series ends in 7 +125
So, given Hawks -150 today, 60% chance of winning, if they lose today, I expect they will be +130 or so for Game 5 in Anaheim, or around 40% of winning.
So there is around a 16% chance the series ends in 5 games (a losing bet at +275 odds)
Should we bet $100 on the series ending in 6 and $100 on the series ending in 7?
Chicago has a 60% chance today, and 40% chance in game 5 if they lose, or a 60%+(60%*40%)=84% chance at series not ending in 5
So we have a 16% chance at losing $200 ($32), or an 84% chance at winning $55 or $25 ($34)
Am I wrong in my calculations? It appears to be +EV, $34>$32. I could divulge into predictions for game 6/7 lines but this was the easiest start.
My site offers:
Series Ends in 5 +275
Series ends in 6 +155
Series ends in 7 +125
So, given Hawks -150 today, 60% chance of winning, if they lose today, I expect they will be +130 or so for Game 5 in Anaheim, or around 40% of winning.
So there is around a 16% chance the series ends in 5 games (a losing bet at +275 odds)
Should we bet $100 on the series ending in 6 and $100 on the series ending in 7?
Chicago has a 60% chance today, and 40% chance in game 5 if they lose, or a 60%+(60%*40%)=84% chance at series not ending in 5
So we have a 16% chance at losing $200 ($32), or an 84% chance at winning $55 or $25 ($34)
Am I wrong in my calculations? It appears to be +EV, $34>$32. I could divulge into predictions for game 6/7 lines but this was the easiest start.