dejong77's NHL runline 2014-2015

[dejong77]

Besides the Under system i am trying out this year. i also have a runline system i have been testing out last year. i finetuned some criteria.

This system hits the runline -1,5 on heavy favorites at home, who won there previous 3 games and are not coming of a away trip. besides the -1,5 spread we also make 3 correlated bets.

main bet:
runline -1,5 on heavy home favorite. here i will bet an to win amount of €50. to calculated the bet amount devide win amount to odds. so win amount is 50 and odds +140. 50 / 1,40 = 35,71.

correlated bets:
-1 spread:
some bookmakers will offer this line. if we expect to cover the 1,5 line then we certainly have to cover the -1 spread. if favorite home team wins by 2 goals of more we have extra money. if favorite home team wins by 1 goal then the bet get pushed. if they loose then we loose 2 units. also here i go for a € 50 to win amount.

team total favorite Over 2,5:
we expect the home team to at least score 2 goals. So it shouldn't be to hard to get the team total over 2,5. Some bookies like 5Dimes will boost the team total to 3,5. Don't bet at 3,5 but find a bookie that got it at 2,5. else don't bet.

team total underdog under 2,5
when a underdog plays on the road against a favorite we expect a one sided game in which the away team is not expected to score much. so it shouldn't be to hard to hit that under team total. always play under 2,5 line. not lower.

I expect the first game to pick will be Flames at Blackhawks tomorrow.

I will upload the spreadsheet with last years results later.

[dejong77]

yesterday i played the oilers-kings game. Which i didn't share here. But its just to show it because its a great example of the power of this system with the -1,5 runline in combination with correlated plays.

result 5-0
unit 3,8 profit

[dejong77]

for today the system picked one game.

20:05 Calgary Flames at Chicago Blackhawks
1 unit on Chicago -1,5 +105
1 unit on Chicago Blackhawks -1 -173
1 unit blackhawks ML -270
1 unit Calgary Flames Team Total Under 2,5 -160
1 unit Chicago Blackhawks Team total Over 2,5 -250

bet 5 to win 3

for tomorrow i am looking at stars-penguins game. But i have to review some data.

[dejong77]

In the first post i promised to share the spreadsheet of the 2012-2013 results.

NHL runline 2013-2014.xlsx

[k0karn]

for today the system picked one game.

20:05 Calgary Flames at Chicago Blackhawks
1 unit on Chicago -1,5 +105
1 unit on Chicago Blackhawks -1 -173
1 unit blackhawks ML -270
1 unit Calgary Flames Team Total Under 2,5 -160
1 unit Chicago Blackhawks Team total Over 2,5 -250

bet 5 to win 3

for tomorrow i am looking at stars-penguins game. But i have to review some data.

How did these go?

[dejong77]

Okay this is embarrasing. This was clearly a one sided game but guess that it proves again that teams that played a game last night (flames) are fresher then teams that did have a few days off (blackhawks). The final result was a 2-1 flames win.

so the -1,5, -1 and ml bets and the chicago over line where looses. the flames under 2,5 did hit for 0,62 profit

record 1-4 -3,38

I have to check if i have a play today. First have to finish my unders analasys.

SHOTS BY PERIOD

1st	2	18
2nd	6	16
3rd	7	13
OT	3	3
Total	18	50

TEAM STATS

Power Plays	0/1	1/7
Hits	17	14
Faceoff Wins	27	35
Giveaways	3	9
Takeaways	3	8
Blocked Shots	30	11
Penalty Minutes	14	2

[dejong77]

Today there are no games fitting all the filters for favorites. Rangers is a partially fit. There for only a bet on the -1 and -1,5 line.

19:05 Hurricanes-Rangers
1 unit Rangers -1 -141
0,5 unit Rangers -1,5 +135

I do have another system. Instead of picking favorites i pick underdogs in which i see value.


19:05 Sharks-Islanders
i expect the islanders to win this straight up. Also i expect a tight game.
1 unit ML Islanders +104
1 unit Islanders +1 -190
1 unit Islanders +1,5 -290

19:35 Bruins-Canadiens
Here is another game that i expect Bruins to win straight up. Also think this will be a tight game. Also i feel there is value in the lines.
1 unit Bruins +113
1 unit Bruins +1 -182
1 unit Bruins +1,5 -285

[dejong77]

rangers won 1-2 in a shootout. -1 bet was a push. and the -1,5 lost. so loosing 0,5 unit.

Islanders won 4-3 in a shootout. So ML, +1 and +1,5 all covered. 1,91 profit

Bruins lost by 2 so all three bets was a lose. loosing -3 units.

day 3-4-1 -1,59
overall -4,97

so overall not doing that well.

no favorites qualify for the -1,5 runline system.

i see a few that qualify for the +1,5 runline. Will update this later.

[dejong77]

I feel there is value in the flames line.

1 unit ML Flames + 170
1 unit Flames -1 + 347
1 unit Flames + 1 -105
1 unit Flames +1,5 -170
1 unit Flames team total over 2,5 +115
1 unit Blue Jackets team total under 2,5 +135

[dejong77]

Flames lost 3-2.

So only + 1,5 bet won. +1 bet was a push. Other 4 bets lost. So lost about 3,5 units.

not really hitting then right now. But still confident i will at one point in the season

[dejong77]

My favorite system got one play today

2 units ML Washington -200
1 unit capitals -1 -129
1 capitals -1,5 +140
1,5 unit team total Florida Under 2,5 -145
2 units team total washington over 2,5 -200

also some underdog plays

1 unit TBL -320
1 unit TBL -207
1 unit TBL ML -110
1 unit TBL -1 +186



1 unit Devils +1,5 -310
1 unit devils -1 -217
1 unit devils ml +101
1 unit devils -1 +178

1 unit bruins ml 210
1 unit bruins -1 -129

[dejong77]

adding one more.

1 unit blackhawks ML -240
1 unit Blackhawks -1 -137

[dejong77]

My favorite system got one play today

2 units ML Washington -200 W +0,50
1 unit capitals -1 -129 P 0
1 capitals -1,5 +140 L -1
1,5 unit team total Florida Under 2,5 -145 W 1,02
2 units team total washington over 2,5 -200 L -2

also some underdog plays

1 unit TBL -320
1 unit TBL -207
1 unit TBL ML -110
1 unit TBL -1 +186



1 unit Devils +1,5 -310 L -1
1 unit devils -1 -217 L -1
1 unit devils ml +101 L -1
1 unit devils -1 +178 L -1

1 unit bruins ml 210 W +0,47
1 unit bruins -1 -129 W +0,77

-4,24

So far another negative night. hopefully TB and hawks can cover.

[dejong77]

blackhawks won in overtime. adding a small profit.Lightning won 4-2 covering all 4 bets. combined those 2 games added 3,96 unit profit. earlier plays where 4,24 loss. so losing a small 0,28 unit,

adding one more.

1 unit blackhawks ML -240 W 0,41
1 unit Blackhawks -1 -137 Push 0
profit 0,41

1 unit TBL -320 W 0,31
1 unit TBL -207 W 0,48
1 unit TBL ML -110 W 0,90
1 unit TBL -1 +186 W 1,86
profit 3,55

[dejong77]

reviewing the games there is no favorite picks.

There are some underdog picks.



15:00 Wild-Kings
Kings won 3 straight at home and are on a hot streak. Alltough only one won by 1 vs blues. other 2 game where blowouts. I think wild are better then they are playing now. Not confident enough to go full out. but expect a close game to be decided by 1 goal.

So will only take the +1 and +1,5 line here
1 unit Wild +1 -148
1 unit Wild +1,5 -230
risk 2 to win 1.1

17:00 Sharks-Rangers
I have the sharks winning this straigt up.
1 unit sharks +1,5 300
1 unit sharks + 1 -195
1 unit sharks ML 1,05
1 unit sharks -1 192
1 unit sharks Team Total over 2,5 -115

19:00 Flames - Jets
flames +1,5 -231
flames +1 -141
flames ML +135
flames -1 253
flames team Total over 2,5 +100

[dejong77]

Wild lost by one so one push and one win for a profit of 0,43. Sharks lost 4-0 so lost all 5 bets going -5. Flames won by a wide marging going 5-0 for a profit of +6. overall a profit of 1,44 unit.

overall still in the minus.

reviewing the games there is no favorite picks.

There are some underdog picks.



15:00 Wild-Kings
Kings won 3 straight at home and are on a hot streak. Alltough only one won by 1 vs blues. other 2 game where blowouts. I think wild are better then they are playing now. Not confident enough to go full out. but expect a close game to be decided by 1 goal.

So will only take the +1 and +1,5 line here
1 unit Wild +1 -148 Push
1 unit Wild +1,5 -230 W +0,43
risk 2 to win 1.1

17:00 Sharks-Rangers
I have the sharks winning this straigt up.
1 unit sharks +1,5 300 L -1
1 unit sharks + 1 -195 L -1
1 unit sharks ML 1,05 L -1
1 unit sharks -1 192 L -1
1 unit sharks Team Total over 2,5 -115 L -1

19:00 Flames - Jets
flames +1,5 -231 W 0,43
flames +1 -141 W 0,70
flames ML +135 W 1,35
flames -1 253 W 2,53
flames team Total over 2,5 +100 W 1,00