Stocks NHL Model Season Picks

[Stocks]

I've been working on a model that has show some very positive results in the back testing I have done but due to lack of time I wasn't able to fully back test it. I'm not sure the best way to run it yet so I'll be tracking a few different scoring options.

I'm not going to get into how the model works so don't ask but it gives me a number usually between +25 and -25. There's 4 ways I'm going to track it until I find out which option is the best.

1st option is bet any 10 point difference between both teams.
Example 1 Bruins +15 vs Leafs +4 (bet Bruins)
Example 2 Bruins +2 vs Leafs -10 (bet Bruins)

2nd option is bet any 20 point difference between both teams.
Example 1 Bruins +25 vs Leafs +1 (bet Bruins)
Example 2 Bruins 3 vs Leafs -25 (bet Bruins)

3rd option is >10 team vs any <0 team or bet against any <-10 team vs any >0 team.
Example 1 Bruins +10 vs Leafs 0 (bet Bruins)
Example 2 Bruins +5 vs Leafs -15 (bet Bruins)

4th option is >10 team vs any <-10 team.
Example 1 Bruins +10 vs Leafs -10 (bet Bruins)
Example 2 Bruins +20 vs Leafs -25 (bet Bruins)

Option 4 should yield the highest win% but it will also have the fewest bets so it would probably be leaving some value out there. Option 2 seems solid and would make a lot of sense. Options 1,3 will have the most bets but not really sure how they're going to work out.

[Stocks]

Wednesday Picks

Boston Bruins -184

Good Luck

[Stocks]

Thursday Picks

1-0 yesterday

Todays Picks

St Louis Blues -166
Columbus Blue Jackets -115
Tampa Bay Lightning -175

So far all picks have come from betting options 1 and 3 which no real surprise. If I was more aggressive in handicapping each team before the season it would probably be a little different but I decided on the passive approach.

Good Luck

[Stocks]

Saturday Picks

No picks yesterday but 2-1 the day before

3-1 +$134 so far.

Boston Bruins -174
New Jersey Devils -120
New York Islanders -172
Tampa Bay Lightning -172
Montreal Canadians -105
Chicago Blackhawks -279
Vancouver Canucks -175
San Jose Sharks -185

A lot of big favorites so far but that's really no surprise early in the season, the model will picks dogs just none yet.

Chicago the only 20 point dif game so far and they're also the only +10 -10 game as well.

The record that I will post is the 10 point dif record because that will cover all games and I'll update the other records from time to time.

Good Luck

[Stocks]

Sunday Picks

6-2 yesterday

1st tracking option 9-3 +$388
2nd tracking option 1-0 +$100
3rd tracking option 6-1 +$434
4th tracking option 1-0 +$100

New York Rangers -172

Good Luck

[Stocks]

Monday Picks

0-1 yesterday

Todays Picks

Anaheim Ducks -185
Montreal Canadians +125

The Canadians are the 1st underdog pick so far although I kind of think the Lightning will win. Boston and Ottawa were very close to being plays but they just missed and Anaheim just missed being a 20 point play.

MNF Pick - San Francisco 49ers -3 (not a system play)

Good Lucks

[Stocks]

Tuesday Picks

1-1 Yesterday

Todays Picks

San Jose Sharks -110
Anaheim Ducks -115
Columbus Blue Jackets -115
Nashville Predators -170
LA Kings -200

I've also started using the same model on totals so I'll post those picks as well. I have no idea how the totals will turn out, it seems like it would work in theory but I haven't back tested it. Yesterday was the first total play I didn't post it but it was Boston/Colorado under.

New York/New York o5.5 +110
San Jose/Washington u5.5 -130
Anaheim/Philly o5.5 -105
Buffalo/Carolina o5.5 +120

Good Luck

[Stocks]

Wednesday Picks

6-3 Yesterday

Todays Picks

Chicago Blackhawks -265
Arizona Coyotes -183

Boston/Detroit u5 -115
Edmonton/Arizona o5.5 +105

Looks like option 3 for sides is looking the best it's 10-1 +$834 while option 3 is 13-7 +$231. Options 2 and 4 still only have one pick.

Totals are 4-1 for option 1 and 1-0 for option 3. No picks for 2 and 4 yet.

Good Luck

[Stocks]

Thursday Picks

2-1-1 Yesterday

Todays Picks

Pittsburgh Penguins -164
New Jersey Devils +112

Carolina/New York o5.5 +112
Colorado/Ottawa u5.5 -128

Good Luck

[Stocks]

Friday Picks

0-4 Yesterday

Vancouver Canucks -150

Vancouver/Edmonton o5.5 -107

Good Luck

[Stocks]

Saturday Picks

1-1 Yesterday

Todays Picks

Boston Bruins -220
Montreal Canadians -156

New York/Pittsburgh o5.5 -125
Nashville/Chicago u5.5 -120

Good Luck

[Stocks]

Sundays Picks

3-1 Yesterday

Todays Picks

San Jose Sharks +105
Anaheim Ducks -120

Minnesota/LA u5 -120
San Jose/New York o5 -130
Calgary/Winnipeg u5.5 -130

Will Update record later today or tomorrow.

Good Luck

[Stocks]

Monday Picks

3-2 Yesterday

Todays Picks

Tampa Bay Lightning -150

Bonus Pick Houston Texans +3

Good Luck

[Stocks]

Record

Sides

Any 10 point Dif (18-11 +$102)
+10 point vs any - (13-5 +$505)

Totals

Any 10 point Dif (8-6 +$146)
+10 point vs any + (4-4 -$24)

[Stocks]

Tuesdays Picks

0-1 Yesterday

Todays Picks

New York Islanders -140
Chicago Blackhawks -185
Vancouver Canucks +118

San Jose/Boston u5 +110
New York/New Jersey o5 -110
Florida/Colorado u5.5 -127

Grand Salami

Home Goals -210
under 55.5 -110

Good Luck

[Stocks]

Wednesday Picks

2-4 yesterday

Todays Picks

Ottawa Senators -155
Pittsburgh Penguins -225
Washington Capitals -145
Anaheim Ducks -350

Good Luck

[Stocks]

Thursday Picks

1-2 Yesterday

Todays Picks

Calgary Flames -154
LA Kings -350

Pittsburgh/Detroit u5.5 -135
Chicago/Nashville u5.5 -135

Good Luck

[Stocks]

Fridays Picks

3-1 Yesterday

Todays Picks

Dallas Stars +107
Vancouver Canucks +130
Edmonton Oilers -155

Dallas/New Jersey o5.5 +134
Tampa Bay/Winnipeg u5.5 -128
Carolina/Edmonton u5.5 -119

Good Luck

[Stocks]

Saturdays Picks

2-4 Yesterday

Todays Picks

Montreal Canadians -126
Ottawa Senators -145
Detroit Red Wings +106
Nashville Predators +105

Chicago/St Louis u5 +125
Tampa/Minnesota u5 +117
Washington/Calgary u5.5 -132

Good Luck

[Stocks]

Sunday Picks

3-4 yesterday

Todays Picks

Anaheim Ducks -165

Colorado/Winnipeg u5.5 -125
Columbus/LA u5 -105
Ottawa/Chicago u5.5 -123

Will update record later today or tomorrow along with thoughts and finding about the model so far.

[Stocks]

Monday Picks

2-2 Yesterday

Todays picks

Montreal Canadians -120
Minnesota/New York u5 -105

Updated Records

Sides

Any 10 point diff (25-21 -$568)
+10 versus any - (16-11 +$45)
Any 20 diff (4-4 -$65)
+10 versus -10 (4-1 +$300)

Totals

Any 10 point total (13-14 -$286)
+10 versus any + (5-8 -$364)
Any 20 point total (1-4 -$383)
+10 versus +10 (1-2 -$155)

Notes

1. So far it's not looking all that impressive but the theory behind it is solid and the limited back testing I did confirmed it so I'm going to keep running this for a bit yet.

2. Underdogs are 1-7 in any 10 point diff category so I think that will turn around.

3. Starting certain teams with +10 or -10 probably a bad idea. Between -5 and +5 may work better but only if I have a very good pre-season read on a team.

4. I also changed how I grade pushed with totals. Shouldn't make a huge difference just made more sense.

5. For some reason I had the New York Rangers winning their first game and losing every game since not sure why and not sure if it effected any bets.

6. The any 10 dif for sides I wasn't sure about from the start I figured this option +10 versus any - (16-11 +$45 would be better and it looks like it is.

7. Wasn't sure about totals in general but I still think it may work.

Overall I'm not impressed so far but it's early in the season and it might just be a variance thing for now so I'll probably do another update at around the game 20 or 25 mark and I should have a better picture of whats going on.

[Stocks]

Tuesday Picks

0-2 Yesterday

Todays Picks

Montreal Canadians -116
New York Islanders -167
Vancouver Canucks -217

Minnesota/Boston u5 +110
LA/Philadelphia o5 -137
Ottawa/Columbus u5.5 -117
Montreal/Calgary u5 +120
Buffalo/Toronto u5.5 -124
Anaheim/Chicago u5.5 -110
Carolina/Vancouver o5.5 +130

Good Luck

[Stocks]

5-4 Yesterday

No picks today but I think I figured out why my model was performing so much worse then what I back tested.

When I back tested all I did was use the number for a specific team and not combine it with who they were playing against. All I did was play +10 or better or fade -10 or worse but when I start running it for real I combined the numbers for both teams and even though that sounded better apparently it doesn't work better.

So now I'm just going to bet teams that are +10 and fade teams that are -10 and not worry about who they are playing. Or bet top 5 and fade the bottom 5. I'll probably track both because I think +10 -10 might be better for totals but top 5 bottom 5 better for sides.

Yesterday

Top 5 bottom 5 went 7-5 +$148
+10 and -10 went 10-4

[Stocks]

Thursday Picks

Ok fellas I readjusted the model. Its the same concept I just made it more aggressive and eliminated combining home/away.

I also changed how I'm going to play it. I have it setup as rankings now and I'm going with top 3 and bottom 3 which would be close to 500 picks a year. Add in totals and that will be close to 1000 picks a year. Also if a top team is playing a bottom team it will be a 2 unit play.

Todays picks

Montreal Canadians +125
New York Islanders +115
Anaheim Ducks +102
Arizona Coyotes +105

Philadelphia and Tampa Bay over 6 -102
Chicago and Ottawa under 5.5 -114
NY Islanders and Colorado over 5.5 -110
Montreal and Vancouver over 5 -135

Good Luck

[Stocks]

Friday Picks

Great start to the new readjusted model 1-6-1 lol

Todays Picks

Anaheim and Dallas under 5.5 +102
Nashville and Calgary under 5 +110 (2 units)

Good Luck