Here's a thought

spongerat · 03-07-09, 04:36 AM

you'd only win 35% because 5 of those were a push and by the numbers you provided, Detroit wins twice as often as they lose so you'd have to get like +300 every time

diogee · 03-07-09, 04:53 AM

I have no idea how nhl standings go but assume that the 19-10-5 must be games at the end of regulation?? In order to get a true read you would need to look at the statfox report (which I believe breaks it down into units as well) for Detroit on their next road game. Either way I would probably think that their average price on the road would not be high enough for it to be profitable but past results don't mean much for future results...especially getting late into the season where some teams may not have much to play for.

VegasVic · 03-07-09, 09:13 AM

If you blindly bet against Detroit this year, (on the road), you’d be up 2.2 units.

They opened the season 5-0 on the road so since 10/29 they are 14-15 on the road and -7.2 units.

They have been placed as a dog just 4 times on the road this year. They are 1-3 in this role. and the lone victory had a minimal payback of +101.
Lost to Washington at +100
Lost to San Jose at +112
Won at Chicago +101 (New Year's day at Wrigley)
Lost to San Jose at +135

Taking the large price against overpriced public teams in any sport usually returns a profit in the long run, (see New York Yankees). Despite their 43-22 record the Wings are down 10.64 units to those that backed them in every game.

Axis · 03-07-09, 10:29 AM

Originally posted by spongerat

you'd only win 35% because 5 of those were a push and by the numbers you provided, Detroit wins twice as often as they lose so you'd have to get like +300 every time

There are no pushes in Hockey, being there are no ties. The 5 represents 5 OT/SO losses.

VegasVic · 03-07-09, 10:42 AM

I just re-read my post and made one critical typo. If you had bet Detroit on the road in every game this year you'd be down 2.2 units.

TodaysAction · 03-07-09, 12:09 PM

Axis,

I like the idea you were toying with but it's not profitable to make it worth one's time. This is something I've been looking into and have been back checking to see if it's worth the time and effort. One thing I've noticed for the early results is certain teams and times fall into this pattern from the past three seasons (this current one being excluded). Nice eye.

Ditaln1 · 03-07-09, 08:54 PM

I tried something similair with betting against horrible teams, home or away. If you would of bet against Tampa bay all year, you would be up 15.7 units. They lost way more than they won, and most games that they won, the money line wasn't that high on the fav. Recently, they beat Boston and Calgary which put a dent into the bankroll. I'm going to track NYI this year also if you would of bet against them.

yisman · 03-07-09, 09:03 PM

Originally posted by Ditaln1

I tried something similair with betting against horrible teams, home or away. If you would of bet against Tampa bay all year, you would be up 15.7 units. They lost way more than they won, and most games that they won, the money line wasn't that high on the fav. Recently, they beat Boston and Calgary which put a dent into the bankroll. I'm going to track NYI this year also if you would of bet against them.

you would have to know which teams will be horrible beforehand.

Betting against the Islanders and TB from the beginning of the year would have been profitable had you started from Day 1, but hardly anyone expected the teams to be this bad.

As for Detroit on the road, you'd be up a little bit if you blindly bet against them, yes.

In fact, I think you'd be up if you blindly bet against them in all games.

yisman · 03-07-09, 09:46 PM

Detroit has not been playing well at all since January 17.

They lost 5 in a row from 1/17-1/31.

They lost to Columbus twice, and the last one was at home and an 8-2 loss!

They lost to Colorado at home. Colorado was by far the worst team in the West at the time.

They lost 5-2 to Minnesota, 8-0 to Nashville, and the aforementioned 8-2 loss to Columbus.

12 wins, 10 losses (including some bad ones) from 1/17 through 3/7.

yisman · 03-12-09, 06:29 PM

by the way, that 8-2 win by Columbus over Detroit was the most goals Columbus had ever scored and their biggest victory margin in their 9 year history.