LTB's Season Long Printing $$$

lovetobet · 11-10-13, 06:21 PM

Florida Panthers +168 - L

Daily -1 Unit
Overall -1 Unit

lovetobet · 11-12-13, 08:00 PM

Phoenix +165

lovetobet · 11-13-13, 03:25 AM

Phoenix +165 - W

Daily Record 1-0 +1.65 Units
Overall Record 1-1 +.65 Units

lovetobet · 11-13-13, 07:03 PM

No plays today.

lovetobet · 11-14-13, 04:29 PM

Looks like no plays again tonight.

lovetobet · 11-14-13, 04:32 PM

I wasn't thinking much about the thread title the night I started this and reflecting on it, I don't much care for it, thus I'm going to start a new season long thread, pulling over my 2 games worth of results.

I guess I should have posted more complete information in my first post about what I’m doing. My plays are coming from a framework (hate the word system but that's basically what it is) that I've been working on for years. I've been using forms of it and developing it for years with mixed results but typically the worst it's ever done in hockey is basically break even. I think I've finally found some additional tweaks/filters that will make this a profitable way to bet, year after year. As you can see from my posts there aren't a ton of games that make it through all the filters. I am serious enough about this revised/updated system that I back tested if for 5 years, with positive results in all 5 years.

No great claims of incredible win %'s or huge positive runs. As a matter of fact I wouldn't have hit a 50% win rate in any of the previous 5 years but since everything is on the ML and I take all dogs (or at least very close to all dogs), I can still win $$. As stated in my first post I bet the same amount on each game thus 1 unit. I've chosen to play a very considerable unit size this year because at the end of the year I expect to be up only 10-20 units, thus for the time and effort to be worth it I am playing a much bigger unit size that I have ever played consistently within a framework (system). As you’ve probably figured out this method of betting is not for people that need ‘action’ every day as there aren’t that many games that make it through the filters.

Anyway, look forward to hopefully grinding out some wins and money this year.

lovetobet · 11-18-13, 04:57 PM

Calgary +135

lovetobet · 11-20-13, 01:05 AM

Calgary +135 - W

Daily Record: 1-0 +1.35 Units
Overall Record: 2-1 +2.00 Units

lovetobet · 11-22-13, 07:03 PM

It's an all Florida State night.

Florida +134
Tampa Bay +165

TheDonger · 11-22-13, 07:29 PM

Originally posted by lovetobet

It's an all Florida State night.

Florida +134
Tampa Bay +165

I'm always curious about how people use their system and decide their pick? Do you have an excel sheet where you put in number? Did you write a custom software ? How did you do your backtest (or did you?) ? What variable do you use in your system? Tell us more!

lovetobet · 11-23-13, 01:28 AM

Well that sucked, lost them both in OT but unfortunately that's the way it goes sometimes. I guess looking at it from a glass half full attitude, even with the 2 losses it drops me to zero units, not negative units. Jump back on tomorrow and see if there are any games that fit the framework and move forward from there.

Florida +134- L
Tampa Bay +165- L

Daily Record: 0-2 -2.00 Units
Overall Record: 2-3 0.00 Units

lovetobet · 11-23-13, 01:36 AM

Originally posted by TheDonger

I'm always curious about how people use their system and decide their pick? Do you have an excel sheet where you put in number? Did you write a custom software ? How did you do your backtest (or did you?) ? What variable do you use in your system? Tell us more!

Appreciate the interest but I don't have the time to dive into the details. As I mentioned in my post I did back test 5 years worth of data, which is why I'm comfortable betting the $$ amounts that I am. I wish I was at a point in my life I could lay out everything for everyone, partially because it would probably spark some ideas but I'm just too busy in my life to do so.

So I'm using this thread to post my plays and track them. You see me doing well then follow, if you see me as good fade material, than fade away!! Either way, good luck to everyone.

lovetobet · 11-23-13, 01:36 PM

2 heavy leans today:

Ottawa & Dallas

I'll confirm if they're are plays later.

lovetobet · 11-23-13, 05:18 PM

Ottawa +122
Dallas +168

lovetobet · 11-23-13, 10:44 PM

Not a monster day but a winning day; take that every day!!

Ottawa +122 - W
Dallas +168 - L

Daily Record: 1-1 +0.22 Units
Overall Record: 3-4 +0.22 Units

lovetobet · 12-11-13, 07:17 PM

Had some personal stuff pop up, so I quit posting plays for a while. Have been winning since I left so hopefully coming back won't change that.

1 play tonight, bit of a long shot but I like it at +170, there's some value here, lets hope it's enough to pump up our accounts.

Flyers +170

lovetobet · 12-12-13, 07:42 PM

I was a little afraid of posting my play as it seems every time I start posting it jinxes my picks. Guess it's good I don't believe in that shiet.

No plays tonight.

Flyers +170 - L

Daily Record: 0-1 -1.0 Units
Overall Record: 3-5 -0.78 Units

lovetobet · 12-14-13, 04:01 PM

Looks like I will have 1 play today. Doesn't start till later, I'll post pick in next 3 hours.

lovetobet · 12-14-13, 06:25 PM

Carolina Hurricanes +145

Only pick of the day/night.

lovetobet · 12-15-13, 12:29 AM

Carolina Hurricanes +145 - W

Daily Record: 1-0 1.45 Units
Overall Record: 4-5 0.67 Units

lovetobet · 12-15-13, 02:53 PM

Looks like I will be on 1 game again tonight. I'll post in the next couple hours if it's a play.

Jerimjob · 12-15-13, 03:10 PM

Was on the Canes last night as well.
Nice pick! .... and nice avatar pic haha

I'm liking the Hawks tonight... looking forward to your pick

lovetobet · 12-15-13, 07:17 PM

The play I was looking at was Edmonton and although the numbers are close for me, I don't think it's quite there. I'm going to go over everything one more time and will post in the next 20 minutes if it's a play.

lovetobet · 12-15-13, 07:19 PM

Originally posted by Jerimjob

Was on the Canes last night as well.
Nice pick! .... and nice avatar pic haha

I'm liking the Hawks tonight... looking forward to your pick

Nice, that was a good win with Carolina; any +145 win is a good win. Good luck with Chicago.

lovetobet · 12-19-13, 04:43 PM

Got a couple games on slate for tonight. So far I have 2 plays and there may be 1 or 2 more.

Columbus +120
Nashville +138

lovetobet · 12-19-13, 08:09 PM

Adding:

Edmonton +168

Noleafclover · 12-19-13, 10:07 PM

I don't know shit about hockey, maybe colombus usually gives it up like I'm hoping your avy does in the 3rd, but I'm'nna go out on a limb and say still right side.

Kinda glad I didn't get back in time to watch that though.

lovetobet · 12-20-13, 02:57 PM

Jesus, epic failure. Don't like going 0-3 but you have winning days and losing days but that Columbus game was just BRUTAL!!! Feking 5 goals in the 3rd period to lose 5-4, OUCH!! Oh well, onward and upward.

Daily Record: 0-3 -3.0 Units
Overall Record: 4-8 -2.33 Units

lovetobet · 12-20-13, 03:00 PM

Originally posted by Noleafclover

I don't know shit about hockey, maybe colombus usually gives it up like I'm hoping your avy does in the 3rd, but I'm'nna go out on a limb and say still right side.

Kinda glad I didn't get back in time to watch that though.

Not going to claim I watch a ton of Blue Jackets hockey but that meltdown was so epic I would dare to say that is not typical. I agree we were on the right side of that game just got a bad break or 5 of them. On the other hand I was clearly on the wrong side of the other 2 games. Sheitty day!!

lovetobet · 12-20-13, 03:05 PM

Looks like I'll have one play tonight, I'll post it up in a few hours.

lovetobet · 12-20-13, 03:12 PM

Officially no plays tonight.

lovetobet · 12-23-13, 07:16 PM

1 play tonight:

NY Islanders +150

lovetobet · 12-24-13, 04:39 PM

NY Islanders +150 - W

Daily Record: 1-0 +1.50 Units
Overall Record: 5-8 -.83 Units

Noleafclover · 12-25-13, 12:16 AM

You've had some bad breaks, hope you keep posting

Not that there's any indication to the contrary