Bit of Value in LAK/Atl Under 5.5

[VegasDave]

It isn't a sure thing or anything, but at +110 I think it is worth a shot.

Atlanta has a pretty middle of the pack offense, and their 8 goals against the Ducks was a pretty clear aberration that I think gives a little more value to the under today.

The Kings defense has been excellent all year and even better since Jack Johnson has returned. Quick has been excellent in net, and it has resulted in the Kings being 7th in the league in GAA on the season; and that is including the poor 10 game start they got off to with Labarbera in net.

Kings GAA in regulation last 11: 2 / 2 / 3 / 1 / 4 / 0 / 4 / 2 / 5 / 2 / 2

With a few exceptions, the Kings are usually good for only about 2 GA.

During that stretch, the Kings have seen a surge in offense; but since returning home, they have struggled on offense again. In fact, the Kings last 6 home games, they've scored: 2 / 0 / 5 / 0 / 1 / 1.

It helps too that Lehtonen has been pretty hot on the road lately.

I think Atlanta will score 1 or 2 goals. It is very possible the Kings break the slump and score 4 and this goes over; but at +110, its got value to take a shot.

[blittydeuce]

Im on the over

[VegasDave]

Im on the over

GL bud! But don't let your judgement be clouded just because your ducks got plucked

[blittydeuce]

GL bud! But don't let your judgement be clouded just because your ducks got plucked

I made one of my biggest bets in a while fading my ducks and playing the over.


btw Ive got a small wager on thrashers ml tonight.

[VegasDave]

I made one of my biggest bets in a while fading my ducks and playing the over.


btw Ive got a small wager on thrashers ml tonight.

Not bad at that price, though I really don't see the Kings dropping it. Good luck

[blittydeuce]

Not bad at that price, though I really don't see the Kings dropping it. Good luck

Kings are looking better with Schneider out. Still loving the over.

[Sundram]

Question

Hey VegasDave,
I like your reasoning & feel that a "fade the public" kind of play here would be to play the under 5.5, after Thrashers scored a ton yesterday. I'm not sure I see that much value at +110 on this, tho. If I had a better number on this (something like +130, or better), I would take a stab at it. 79% at Carib are taking the Kings, & I know they will be all-out to win at least 1 on this homestand. Forget -200, tho!

Anyone know where I can get public betting % numbers on the totals?

[yisman]

Dave, I agree with you. I think the under has value. +115 at Bodog, now.

Of course, Atlanta's last game had 12 goals.

[yisman]

I wonder what impact the Schneider trade will have on Atlanta.

Also, Atlanta's games (excluding last night) average 6.268 goals a game. After last night, it increased a tenth to 6.368.

LA's games average 5.37 goals per game.

[yisman]

Anyone know where I can get public betting % numbers on the totals?

This thread has a lot of good info.

[pimike]

Love the KINGS to win and a little on the -1.5 +145

[yisman]

Evidently, Atlanta has carried over the goal-scoring explosion from last night.

11 goals for them in less than 4 periods.

[VegasDave]

Well that didn't last long

Sorry fellas, no way I expected the Kings to come out so flat or the Thrashers to come out flying, especially after the Schneider trade. But thats how it goes sometimes.

Congrats blitty!

[blittydeuce]

Well that didn't last long

Sorry fellas, no way I expected the Kings to come out so flat or the Thrashers to come out flying, especially after the Schneider trade. But thats how it goes sometimes.

Congrats blitty!

[kipper32]

So what was the final, 2-1?

[dyosh808]

Vegasdave, What happened to Jennifer Love Hewitt???!!!

[VegasDave]

Vegasdave, What happened to Jennifer Love Hewitt???!!!

Kelly's new CD is coming out March 17th! Had to rock her for a little while.

[yisman]

So what was the final, 2-1?