Pheas NHL Reverse Line Movement Thread

mdunlap3 · 10-01-13, 11:25 AM

Where are those percentages from?

gambler705 · 10-01-13, 11:26 AM

Im on both teams already, without even looking ar rlm. Lets get it

thienlong82 · 10-01-13, 11:26 AM

Gl

Dano85 · 10-01-13, 12:38 PM

Where you getting these number from?

sbr odds page is showing 56 43 split and all but 3 books are over -165 with 1 being as high as -197

pheas · 10-02-13, 12:09 PM

Overal 1-1(+0.5u)

10/2 plays

Leafs vs Flyers(3u)
- opened at Flyers -134 with 66% public on them, line now at -130
risking 3.9U to win 3u

USAF MP · 10-02-13, 12:22 PM

little confused who u going with break it down please

pheas · 10-02-13, 01:40 PM

going with the Flyers. They opened as with moneyline at -134 and 66% of public on them, since moneyline went down to -130 instead of going up I'm taking the Flyers.

PStrangers · 10-02-13, 05:00 PM

Originally posted by pheas

Been having success with betting reverse line movement in football and baseball so figured I'd try hockey and see how it goes. I have very little knowledge of hockey so these bets will be just off movement and not on game knowledge.

10/1

Capitals(2u) vs Blackhawks

- line opened at Blackhawks -166 with 72% public on Chicago, line now -164

Jets(2U) vs Oilers

- line opend at Oilers -145 with 65% of public on them, line moved to -137

** risking 4u to win 5.6u

Originally posted by pheas

going with the Flyers. They opened as with moneyline at -134 and 66% of public on them, since moneyline went down to -130 instead of going up I'm taking the Flyers.

Your betting differently between these two plays, you see that right?

The Oilers open at -145 65% on the public is on them and the live moves to -137 and you bet the Jets.
The Flyers open at -134 66% of the public is on them and the live moves to -130 and you bet the Flyers.

See what I mean?

You had the first on right (bet the Jets). Today's play should be betting the Leafs.

pheas · 10-02-13, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by PStrangers

Your betting differently between these two plays, you see that right?

The Oilers open at -145 65% on the public is on them and the live moves to -137 and you bet the Jets.
The Flyers open at -134 66% of the public is on them and the live moves to -130 and you bet the Flyers.

See what I mean?

You had the first on right (bet the Jets). Today's play should be betting the Leafs.

how so? In both cases the money line went down.

nrok2118 · 10-02-13, 05:10 PM

Originally posted by PStrangers

Your betting differently between these two plays, you see that right?

The Oilers open at -145 65% on the public is on them and the live moves to -137 and you bet the Jets.
The Flyers open at -134 66% of the public is on them and the live moves to -130 and you bet the Flyers.

See what I mean?

You had the first on right (bet the Jets). Today's play should be betting the Leafs.

Yeah you dont really know what your doing, do ya?

pheas · 10-02-13, 05:16 PM

Originally posted by nrok2118

Yeah you dont really know what your doing, do ya?

me or PStrangers? I'm new to this but it's been working well so tell me if I'm doing it wrong.

PStrangers · 10-02-13, 05:23 PM

Originally posted by pheas

how so? In both cases the money line went down.

In both cases the money line went down. In the first case you bet *AGAINST* the team which the line went down (you bet against the Oilers). In the second case you bet *ON* the line that went down (you bet on the flyers).

pheas · 10-02-13, 05:28 PM

Originally posted by PStrangers

In both cases the money line went down. In the first case you bet *AGAINST* the team which the line went down (you bet against the Oilers). In the second case you bet *ON* the line that went down (you bet on the flyers).

cool thanks. Got lucky I guess. Will make sure to keep betting the same throughout the season to see if this works.

nrok2118 · 10-02-13, 05:32 PM

Originally posted by pheas

me or PStrangers? I'm new to this but it's been working well so tell me if I'm doing it wrong.

Reverse movement always has you bet contrarian, against the public. Thought process is if the public is on one side and the line moves against it than this might mean "sharp" money is coming in on the other side. Whether this is true or not is debatable, but I can promise you moving a couple of bucks (-134 to -130) is not something to follow. You should be concentrating on larger movements (at LEAST 10 bucks). Problem with that is, after the line moves you play a weaker line and lose any value long term. So the moral of the story is your still gonna lose long term, your just experiencing a good run and think its RLM, while its simply luck.

pheas · 10-02-13, 05:36 PM

Originally posted by nrok2118

Reverse movement always has you bet contrarian, against the public. Thought process is if the public is on one side and the line moves against it than this might mean "sharp" money is coming in on the other side. Whether this is true or not is debatable, but I can promise you moving a couple of bucks (-134 to -130) is not something to follow. You should be concentrating on larger movements (at LEAST 10 bucks). Problem with that is, after the line moves you play a weaker line and lose any value long term. So the moral of the story is your still gonna lose long term, your just experiencing a good run and think its RLM, while its simply luck.

ok I get the first part about concentrating on larger movements but not sure about the second. If a line moved from -134 to -130 wouldn't that be more value since i can bet less at -130 and win the same rather then betting more at -134?

nrok2118 · 10-02-13, 05:41 PM

Originally posted by pheas

ok I get the first part about concentrating on larger movements but not sure about the second. If a line moved from -134 to -130 wouldn't that be more value since i can bet less at -130 and win the same rather then betting more at -134?

Thats a nice thought to save some money....except that is the exact opposite of reverse line movement, which is what your basing this thread on. The line moving against the public play, which is what happened with the flyers, means that if your betting using reverse line movement than you would bet on the leafs.

pheas · 10-02-13, 05:50 PM

Originally posted by nrok2118

Thats a nice thought to save some money....except that is the exact opposite of reverse line movement, which is what your basing this thread on. The line moving against the public play, which is what happened with the flyers, means that if your betting using reverse line movement than you would bet on the leafs.

thanks, i got it now. I just started using this so wasn't sure 100% how it worked. I guess it was luck since I went 4-1 in the NFL last week with what I have been doing. Starting tomorrow I'll start doing it the real way and see what my results are.

PStrangers · 10-02-13, 05:59 PM

Betting reverse line movements can be very profitable, you just have to know

1. What is a reverse line movement?
2. Why a reverse line movement happens?
3. Why reverse line movements still lose?

1. What is a reverse line movement?

As most of you know, a reverse line movement is when the majority of wagers (the percentage of bets) is greater on one side, but the line moves to make betting on this team more favorable.

I. E. The Flyers open as a -134 favorite against the Maple Leafs. 64% of the wagers are on the Flyers, but the Flyers move to a -125 favorite.

2. Why a reverse line movement happens?

There are two reasons why reverse line movements happen.

A. Some books (mostly in Las Vegas) prefer to have as balanced of action as possible, and by balanced I mean in total amount wagers, not number of bets. Las Vegas books will routinely take smaller profits for lower total risk. If they book achieves balance action, they get the juice and make money regardless of thew inner. Therefore, they move the line based on the dollar amount of action taken, not on the number or wagers.

I. E. The Flyers opened as a -134 favorite. A book takes $20,000 worth of action at the Leafs +124 and $10,000 worth of action on the Flyers -134. Right now if the Leafs win, the book loses money. Therefore, it moves the line to -125 in hope that more betters will bet the Flyers. Since they don't give a damn about the number of betters, the reverse line movement gives you information about how much money is bet on each side.

B. Some books (most online books) are willing to take short term losses if it increases their long term gain. Therefore, they don't try to balance the book but instead look for an edge. These books track there winning and losing sports betters. If the majority of winning players are on a particular side they move the line to try to get increased action on the team their winning players are expecting to lose.

I. E. The Flyers opened as a -134 favorite. A book sees that 5 of there clients who routinely win have bet the Leafs at +124 where 5 of their losing clients have bet the Flyers at -134. The books is greedy and in an effort to increase it's profit, moves the line to -125, effectively placing a wager on the Leafs to win.

3. Why reverse line movements still lose?

There are multiple reasons why reverse line movements will happen, and many do not mean they should be bet.

A. The classic example is the "Max Bet". Mr. Millionaire is in Las Vegas for the weekend. He is from Houston and loves the Texans. He places a $100,000 max bet on the Texans +7. The book had taked 70% of its action on the 9ners to cover the -7, including 5 winning sports players. But, they have no desire to have such lopsided action, so they move the Texans to +6.5. However, this does not mean the Texans are a good bet.

B. The next example came frequently last year during the NFL. Sharp betters can by systematically wrong. Road fav. of -3.5 to -6 covered at a huge percentage last year. There were numerous games which had reverse line movement on the home dog, but the road fav. kept covering. Even sharp betters are usually only winning ATS 57-60% of the time.

C. Game time changes. You don't look at the news and see that 64% of the bets are on the Flyers and the line moved from -134 to -125. So you bet the Leafs due to the reverse line movement. As it turns out, Claude Giroux is out with a concussion. The line moved due to a change in the game, nothing to do with the action taken of it. In this case, the Leafs would not be considered a good bet.

Hope all that made sense.

The point is, since the Flyers opened at -134 and the line moved down to -125 with 64% of the wagers on the Flyers it means either

1. The money taken on the Leafs was larger (and indication that sharp betters who bet more money are the leafs)
2. The winning players are on the Leafs (and the books move the line to side with the winning betters)
3. On of the other reasons listed above happen (maybe it being released that Steve Mason is between the pipes for the Flyers moved the line since he only had 7 starts last year, and the books moved the line since the line was set at -134 with Emery in net)

Personally, I made a small bet the Leafs. The reverse line movement points to the leafs, and as a Kings fan, I've see how good Bernier is in the net. I think the Flyers still need a lot of work, and I'm not confident in Mason. The only worry some thing is playing a rough game last night. Anyways, looking forward to a good game.

pheas · 10-02-13, 06:04 PM

Originally posted by PStrangers

Betting reverse line movements can be very profitable, you just have to know

1. What is a reverse line movement?
2. Why a reverse line movement happens?
3. Why reverse line movements still lose?

1. What is a reverse line movement?

As most of you know, a reverse line movement is when the majority of wagers (the percentage of bets) is greater on one side, but the line moves to make betting on this team more favorable.

I. E. The Flyers open as a -134 favorite against the Maple Leafs. 64% of the wagers are on the Flyers, but the Flyers move to a -125 favorite.

2. Why a reverse line movement happens?

There are two reasons why reverse line movements happen.

A. Some books (mostly in Las Vegas) prefer to have as balanced of action as possible, and by balanced I mean in total amount wagers, not number of bets. Las Vegas books will routinely take smaller profits for lower total risk. If they book achieves balance action, they get the juice and make money regardless of thew inner. Therefore, they move the line based on the dollar amount of action taken, not on the number or wagers.

I. E. The Flyers opened as a -134 favorite. A book takes $20,000 worth of action at the Leafs +124 and $10,000 worth of action on the Flyers -134. Right now if the Leafs win, the book loses money. Therefore, it moves the line to -125 in hope that more betters will bet the Flyers. Since they don't give a damn about the number of betters, the reverse line movement gives you information about how much money is bet on each side.

B. Some books (most online books) are willing to take short term losses if it increases their long term gain. Therefore, they don't try to balance the book but instead look for an edge. These books track there winning and losing sports betters. If the majority of winning players are on a particular side they move the line to try to get increased action on the team their winning players are expecting to lose.

I. E. The Flyers opened as a -134 favorite. A book sees that 5 of there clients who routinely win have bet the Leafs at +124 where 5 of their losing clients have bet the Flyers at -134. The books is greedy and in an effort to increase it's profit, moves the line to -125, effectively placing a wager on the Leafs to win.

3. Why reverse line movements still lose?

There are multiple reasons why reverse line movements will happen, and many do not mean they should be bet.

A. The classic example is the "Max Bet". Mr. Millionaire is in Las Vegas for the weekend. He is from Houston and loves the Texans. He places a $100,000 max bet on the Texans +7. The book had taked 70% of its action on the 9ners to cover the -7, including 5 winning sports players. But, they have no desire to have such lopsided action, so they move the Texans to +6.5. However, this does not mean the Texans are a good bet.

B. The next example came frequently last year during the NFL. Sharp betters can by systematically wrong. Road fav. of -3.5 to -6 covered at a huge percentage last year. There were numerous games which had reverse line movement on the home dog, but the road fav. kept covering. Even sharp betters are usually only winning ATS 57-60% of the time.

C. Game time changes. You don't look at the news and see that 64% of the bets are on the Flyers and the line moved from -134 to -125. So you bet the Leafs due to the reverse line movement. As it turns out, Claude Giroux is out with a concussion. The line moved due to a change in the game, nothing to do with the action taken of it. In this case, the Leafs would not be considered a good bet.

Hope all that made sense.

The point is, since the Flyers opened at -134 and the line moved down to -125 with 64% of the wagers on the Flyers it means either

1. The money taken on the Leafs was larger (and indication that sharp betters who bet more money are the leafs)
2. The winning players are on the Leafs (and the books move the line to side with the winning betters)
3. On of the other reasons listed above happen (maybe it being released that Steve Mason is between the pipes for the Flyers moved the line since he only had 7 starts last year, and the books moved the line since the line was set at -134 with Emery in net)

Personally, I made a small bet the Leafs. The reverse line movement points to the leafs, and as a Kings fan, I've see how good Bernier is in the net. I think the Flyers still need a lot of work, and I'm not confident in Mason. The only worry some thing is playing a rough game last night. Anyways, looking forward to a good game.

thanks, helps a lot. I know next to nothing about hockey so just using the system to see how it goes. Only team I do follow is the Flyers so think they have a good chance today