Keeping Track of a System...

DevilDog · 01-12-09, 06:55 PM

Hey Losturmarbles, you still fading all his picks? How has that worked for ya buddy?

losturmarbles · 01-12-09, 07:35 PM

lol so when did i say i was fading ALL his picks? asshole.

i have been nothing but honest about how i feel about each pick. the last 2 picks ive been on the same side and havent objected.

ive been loosely working on a model to price games and that is where im coming from.

tonight i have detroit priced at -207, so -175 is almost 4% better. line has already moved close to -200.

and i have the bolts priced at 119, and they are currently 135 (3% better), so i will be making a small play on them also.
my model is still an infant and i havent tested it against past results, and im not using optimal stats, right now its just more of a tinkering kind of deal.

DevilDog · 01-12-09, 07:51 PM

"what is your system? are you polling kids you play nhl09 against on xbox live to pick a winner?
systems usually determine the exact opposite of the the plays that your system does. systems normally find value in a line."

Hmmm, who said that? Who also said they were fading all three of his picks when he first posted?

You didn't have much to day after that did you dude. Because you saw the results.

Life lesson number one: keep your mouth shut until you have a clue.

losturmarbles · 01-12-09, 08:05 PM

Originally posted by DevilDog

"what is your system? are you polling kids you play nhl09 against on xbox live to pick a winner?
systems usually determine the exact opposite of the the plays that your system does. systems normally find value in a line."

Hmmm, who said that? Who also said they were fading all three of his picks when he first posted?

You didn't have much to day after that did you dude. Because you saw the results.

Life lesson number one: keep your mouth shut until you have a clue.

wow thanks for the sage advice. too bad you dont practice what you preach.

like i said in that post, the value wasnt there. why play a chalk fav if the game is a coin flip?

of course ignorant trolls like yourself might have trouble comprehending such a complicated concept.

JohnMorr08 · 01-12-09, 09:29 PM

Hey - lets all focus at the task at hand: Winning $$$. I'm just glad it's working thus far!! I hope that it can keep going so I can help myself and each of you!!

Although you guys are entertaining lets get some $$$$$$ haha

losturmarbles · 01-12-09, 10:10 PM

agreed. datsyuk just scored

wings up 4-3 now.

babyneedsdiapers · 01-12-09, 10:23 PM

good start to your system. its funny though cause there are so many systems out there that 1 system will go against another system with almost every pick lol! im using another system tonight that had dallas as a pick. Typically i have been trailing your picks but decided to go with the other tonight but wanted to say keep up the great work!

JohnMorr08 · 01-12-09, 10:45 PM

5 - 2 +285

WOW !! That was a great hockey game. I obviously with Detroit held on but Dallas really fought. Can't win them all. But there's more on tap!

brooks85 · 01-12-09, 10:51 PM

.Hey this is just an suggestion. You might of already thought of it. Does your system included any filters for teams on longer game winning streaks? Like Detroit for example has had 2 previous 5 games winning steaks. A 4 game winning streak and the 6 game ended tonight. Im not sure but maybe if backtracked there is trend on how long winning streaks usually last. Some how make it into a filter? Im going to look at some other teams from this season.

brooks85 · 01-12-09, 11:00 PM

Thinking more about it I guess it wouldnt make much sense to not follow a winning team.

JohnMorr08 · 01-12-09, 11:03 PM

Not a bad suggestion though. They actually had a couple of things going against them tonight including revenge and a morale boost (since Dallas had a impact player back).

But I went with the Better team.

I'll definitely be making adjustments.

JohnMorr08 · 01-14-09, 03:26 PM

Detroit (-150) at Anahiem x 2

bigp75321 · 01-14-09, 06:16 PM

Hey guys Im new at this ... but i know quite a bit about hockey.... Can someone explain to me what u guys man by those numbers for example Detroit -175 at Dallas

Thanks alot

JohnMorr08 · 01-14-09, 06:59 PM

175 is what vegas is charging for the Money Line. You have to pay $175 to win $100. Of course this is on the favorite. If you were betting for the underdog to win the game you'd bet $100 to win $175 (or something around there).

JohnMorr08 · 01-15-09, 10:27 AM

6 - 2 +485

Sitting out until Montreal takes on Ottawa on Saturday.....

Good Luck

ragiche · 01-15-09, 11:10 AM

no play for today? JohnMorr,can you give me a play for today,this will be my 2nd time betting NHL,the 1st one does'nt do well for me.Pleassssssssssssssssss.

ragiche · 01-15-09, 11:12 AM

I also do parlay,but for only a max of $15 only.Ck,thought me this.

ragiche · 01-15-09, 11:15 AM

I know that you also help people in this thread.And i'm one of them.I really need the help that i can get.Please help me with this one.

Axis · 01-15-09, 11:32 AM

^
If he is waiting, that probably means there is no play today.

There are other ways to find good games to bet on tonight though if you want to try a different system.

JohnMorr08 · 01-15-09, 01:43 PM

Rag - I'm following a certain system here... no play today. If you HAVE to play NHL my best bet would be the Bruins ML or the OVER.

I'll have NCAA plays later on the "$3.000 experiment thread".... leans are UNC & San Diego. Tease em if you want.

djpremier36 · 01-15-09, 03:04 PM

I'm teasing Utah State, San Diego, and UNC tonite.

ragiche · 01-15-09, 05:25 PM

Thanks john,really need that help.

JohnMorr08 · 01-16-09, 02:39 PM

6 - 2 +485

Locking up Montreal -140 at Ottawa (for tomorrow 1/17)

Bluehorseshoe · 01-17-09, 09:50 PM

Nice job. Thanks for the plays.

JohnMorr08 · 01-17-09, 10:41 PM

7 - 2 +585

It took a shoot out but Montreal held on!

ploben · 01-18-09, 12:01 AM

WTG JM. Nail biter. But a W is a W.

Any idea for the next system play?

larryacraig · 01-18-09, 11:48 PM

we will all be waiting.... greta job oh mighty guru of the systems

JohnMorr08 · 01-20-09, 12:46 PM

Next picks for me won't be until the 27th. I'll have 2 games.

I have a few plays that have been filtered out due to certain trends or extremely high prices....

Axis · 01-21-09, 12:45 AM

Ah...okay

Ignore my PM John haha, missed that post

JohnMorr08 · 01-26-09, 01:17 PM

7 - 2 +585

Back with 2 games 1/27.....

Boston (-160) vs. Washington
Philadelphia (-110) at Florida

*The system calls for Philly +1.5(-270) but the price is pretty high... I'm going with Philly to win the game outright at the lower price.

SeahawkSanders · 01-26-09, 03:29 PM

Amazing stuff man, I'm all over these picks!

cgars1 · 01-26-09, 10:30 PM

JM I'm new to this site and I've been watching fdifferent threads for a few weeks and I really respect the work, Looking fwd to NHL action again! Dial it in JM...let's get'em and make some money!

JohnMorr08 · 01-27-09, 11:28 PM

8 - 3 +575

Damn... If I played it right (philly +1.5) I would have made some $$.

cgars1 · 01-27-09, 11:55 PM

I was thinking that while watching the score online...3-2 ugh

AdaBarber · 01-28-09, 07:49 AM

Don't feel bad John. I did what the system said. I played the 1.5 and I parlayed it with your other pick and two more cbb and nfl picks for 5 units.

Thanks. Keep em coming!