What is the point of +1.5

guitar711 · 12-20-08, 03:57 PM

Overtime.

MAKAVELI 96 · 12-20-08, 04:01 PM

you shouldn't take the +1.5 when an average team is playing a powerhouse ... that carolina +1.5 was priced at -175 today ... the best strategy is to parlay two +1.5 dogs that you think have a chance of winning straight up ... eg, today columbus +1.5 and chicago +1.5 ...

unit1884 · 12-20-08, 04:04 PM

Overtime is doesnt mean anything, just take +0.5, +1.5 is a total sucker bet, I dont see how it is any better than +0.5

If the +1.5 team is winning late in the game (say by 1 goal) and the -1.5 team scores to tie it up with about 3 mins left, the +1.5 and the +0.5 have the same chance of winning.

Teams generally shut it down that late in the game if its tied, to guarantee points, and even if the -1.5 team scores a late goal to go up by 1, the +1.5 team will pull the goalie and the chance of an empty net is very high...

+0.5 pays WAY better than +1.5 and the odds of it hitting are essentially the same.

Empty net goals also screw unders all the time.

unit1884 · 12-20-08, 04:06 PM

Also if the +1.5 is down by 1 goal late, you have to worry about the empty netter screwing you, but if you have +0.5 you wont care about it, your team still has to score.

I hate the feeling of getting screwed by a pointless goal...

guitar711 · 12-20-08, 04:19 PM

Originally posted by unit1884

Also if the +1.5 is down by 1 goal late, you have to worry about the empty netter screwing you, but if you have +0.5 you wont care about it, your team still has to score.

I hate the feeling of getting screwed by a pointless goal...

Right, an empty netter will screw you. I lucked out b/c I had the game at over 5.5 so the empty netter helped.

Odds are if a team loses by 1, it is in OT. I will not play a +1.5 because the odds always suck. If I pick a dog, it's on the ML. Chicago might be a good ML pick tonight.

betplom · 12-20-08, 08:04 PM

The great thing about +1.5 is if your team scores first, you have a very nice cushion, because the favourite must now score three goals in a row to beat you.

I use +1.5 bets in parlays.

unit1884 · 12-20-08, 08:06 PM

Ya, carolina scored first and still got screwed

Ganchrow · 12-20-08, 09:04 PM

Originally posted by guitar711

Odds are if a team loses by 1, it is in OT.

In point of fact of the 4,163 NHL games from the 2005/6 season through Dec. 19 of the 2008/9 season, if a team lost by 1 goal there was only a 49.05% probability it occurred in OT.

So over that data set 1-goal margins of victory are actually slightly more common in reg time than in OT.

I will point out. however, that the difference in conditional probabilities is well within the margin of error.

guitar711 · 12-20-08, 09:27 PM

Empty netter in detroit saves me again.

ZXCVBNM · 12-20-08, 09:37 PM

Originally posted by guitar711

Empty netter in detroit saves me again.

me too - it's like the Wings were playing with them!