Think you know hockey? Data mining hockey facts

a4u2fear · 02-12-13, 05:45 PM

The average margin of victory in over 6,000 regular season games from 07-08 to 11-12 is 2.04 goals with a standard deviation of 1.26

In those over 6,000 games, the goals scored per period are:
9,779 for 1P
11,478 for 2P
11,278 for 3P

I see a lot of people betting 1P overs, maybe it's time to look at the 2nd and third periods?

DennisGreen · 02-12-13, 05:47 PM

Originally posted by a4u2fear

The average margin of victory in over 6,000 regular season games from 07-08 to 11-12 is 2.04 goals with a standard deviation of 1.26

In those over 6,000 games, the goals scored per period are:
9,779 for 1P
11,478 for 2P
11,278 for 3P

I see a lot of people betting 1P overs, maybe it's time to look at the 2nd and third periods?

Most sites don't offer 2nd and 3rd period overs and if they do they're chalky as fcuk. Usually between -150 to -200

I guess 1st period overs are somewhat of sucker bets though, books love action on them.

a4u2fear · 02-12-13, 05:48 PM

Also in the regular season games:
The average goals scored per team per game is 2.81 with a standard deviation of 1.65

Out of these games
23.6% of the games went to OT/SO

The home team fares in first period scoring
2184W-1751L-2097T

a4u2fear · 02-12-13, 05:49 PM

So if you're a rookie to betting, in most cases, a game going to OT has a line of +300. In order to break even of be +EV, you need to win at a rate of 100/(100+300)=25%. If you were to flat bet every game going to OT as I indicated above happens 23.6%, you would be losing at a rate of 1.4%

a4u2fear · 02-12-13, 05:52 PM

Originally posted by DennisGreen

Most sites don't offer 2nd and 3rd period overs and if they do they're chalky as fcuk. Usually between -150 to -200

I guess 1st period overs are somewhat of sucker bets though, books love action on them.

ahhh I gotcha, never knew why you primarily focused on 1P

In the 2184 games that the Home lead after 1P, the away team came back and won 513 times
In the 1751 games the away team lead after 1P, the home team came back and won 502 times.