BLF Totals Chase Thread '13

[biggerleaffan]

Just a standard chase thread. Only looking at totals, nothing with more juice than -150. Team has to be on a 3 game streak (either O/U) and will do a 3 game chase to end the streak. Trying to win a unit/streak, so the bets will be increased as the chase goes further (as is the norm with all chase systems). Pushes are no-plays.

If two teams are playing each other on opposite streaks, I will not bet on the game, and start the chase on the team which had it's streak continue. If two teams that are on the same streak play each other, I will not play 2 bets on the game, just one.

Obviously can't do any plays for tonight and tomorrow since the season just started, few teams (Chitown, Winnipeg, Phoenix, Boston) are close to the chase. Will update the thread when the first play comes in!

BOL to all who choose to tail or just spectating! Glad to have hockey back!

[biggerleaffan]

24.01.2013
PHX chase "under": A) U 5.5 (-125) @ SJ 1.25u to win 2.25u





Possible chases starting after tonight
NYR chase "under"
MTL chase "over"
WSH chase "under"
OTT chase "over"
FLA chase "over"
DAL chase "over"
CLB chase "under"

[BuckeyeKaptn]

gl, will be watching. Not a big hockey guy but branching out.

[biggerleaffan]

24.01.2013
PHX chase "under": A) U 5.5 (-125) @ SJ 1.25u to win 2.25u

25.01.2013
OTT chase "over": A) O 5.5 (-130) @ TB 1.30u to win 2.30u






Possible chases starting after tonight:
NYI chase "under"
NJ chase "over"
PIT chase "under"
VAN chase "over"
ANA chase "under"

***Note I have not updated my record because the record does not look at individual games, but at chase series. So going 1-2 in a chase will still result in a record of 1-0. Going 0-3 in a chase will result in a record of 0-1. The unit deficit/gain will stay the same just the record takes into account series'.

[biggerleaffan]

25.01.2013
OTT chase "over":A) O 5.5 (-130) @ TB 1.30u to win 2.30u

Still waiting on some lines to open for tonight, will post them later...


YTD:1-0 (+1.0 units)

[biggerleaffan]

26.01.2013
FLA chase "over": A) O 5.5 (+120) vs. PHI 1u to win 2.20u
DAL chase "over": A) O 5.0 (-120) vs. STL 1.20u to win 2.20u
PHX chase "under":A) U 5.5 (-125) @ SJ 1.25u to win 2.25 | B) U 5.0 (+115) vs LA 1.96u to win 4.21u



Possible chases starting after tonight:
COL chase "over"
SJ chase "under"
TOR chase "under"
CHI chase "over"
PHI chase "over"
STL chase "over"
LA chase "over"
NAS chase "over"

[biggerleaffan]

26.01.2013
FLA chase "over": A) O 5.5 (+120) vs. PHI 1u to win 2.20u
DAL chase "over": A) O 5.0 (-120) vs. STL 1.20u to win 2.20u
PHX chase "under":A) U 5.5 (-125) @ SJ 1.25u to win 2.25 | B) U 5.0 (+115) vs LA 1.96u to win 4.21u

YTD: 3-0 (+3.20u)

27.01.2013
PIT chase "under": A) U 5.5 (+115) @ OTT 1u to win 1.15u
NJ/MTL chase "over": A) O 5.0 (-120) 1.20u to win 2.20u
CHI chase "over": A) O 5.5 (-110) vs. DET 1.10u to win 2.10u
NYI chase "under": A) U 5.5 (-110) @ WIN 1.10u to win 2.10u
VAN chase "over": A) O 5.5 (-105) @ SJ 1.05u to win 2.05u

[biggerleaffan]

27.01.2013
PIT chase "under": A) U 5.5 (+115) @ OTT 1u to win 1.15u
NJ/MTL chase "over": A) O 5.0 (-120) 1.20u to win 2.20u
CHI chase "over": A) O 5.5 (-110) vs. DET 1.10u to win 2.10u
NYI chase "under": A) U 5.5 (-110) @ WIN 1.10u to win 2.10u
VAN chase "over": A) O 5.5 (-105) @ SJ 1.05u to win 2.05u

YTD: 5-0 (+5.35u)

Will post plays later on tonight as the PHX/NAS lines aren't up yet. Even though NAS has had 3 straight unders, I'm going to still finish the last play of the over for the PHX chase. Not sure if I'll play the under as well...have to see the line

[BuckeyeKaptn]

Nice, so far. Gotta question or two. Do you have a spreadsheet of the schedule that you use to keep track of the O/U's? If so, where could I find it? I'm doing O/U's on NBA now and use a sheet to keep track.
Another is, has this been back tested and if so, how far? I'm gonna do it, but it's tedious.
Last question. What website do you base your win/loss of the chase on? Example: you are betting for an OVER. Covers.com (or whatever website you use as a base) might have the O/U number at 6.5 but you are able to get it at 5.5 and the total outcome is 6. System win or loss? Or is the O/U number always the same?
I'm gonna start tailing now that I have some time to get a spreadsheet together. Let's do this!
Btw, love your avatar. He was my favorite player in college and my 12 yr old son's favorite now. His is the only OSU jerseys we've gotten.
GL

[biggerleaffan]

Nice, so far. Gotta question or two. Do you have a spreadsheet of the schedule that you use to keep track of the O/U's? If so, where could I find it? I'm doing O/U's on NBA now and use a sheet to keep track.
Another is, has this been back tested and if so, how far? I'm gonna do it, but it's tedious.
Last question. What website do you base your win/loss of the chase on? Example: you are betting for an OVER. Covers.com (or whatever website you use as a base) might have the O/U number at 6.5 but you are able to get it at 5.5 and the total outcome is 6. System win or loss? Or is the O/U number always the same?
I'm gonna start tailing now that I have some time to get a spreadsheet together. Let's do this!
Btw, love your avatar. He was my favorite player in college and my 12 yr old son's favorite now. His is the only OSU jerseys we've gotten.
GL

I have an excel spreadsheet on my computer where I track the O/U's. I bet with Bet365, so every morning I'll wake up, look at last nights odds (according to them) and results, and record them in my spread sheet. The only backtesting I've seen is other people trying this method out few years ago and have all been profitable.

Cheers and lets make some units Tonight I'm leaning towards playing both sides of the O/U for PHX/NAS, since both are on separate streaks. That way if PHX chase loses tonight, although the chase will be over it won't be as bad as it could've been with the NAS over hitting.

[BuckeyeKaptn]

At first I was confused as why you're playing both, but I got it, this is the 3rd leg of Phoenix. Since this will be my start of wagering NHL this year, I won't wager as I agree with your first post about plays against each other.
Also, and the main reason for this post>>>What's the Grand Salami?

Mon 01/28 07:05 PM
91	Away Goals		-110
92	Home Goals		-110
* Game Note: Grand Salami (All Games Must Go Official Time)
Mon 01/28 07:05 PM
93	Grand Salami			O 28½ -105
94	GrandSalami			U 28½ -115
* Game Note: Grand Salami (All Games Must Go Official Time)

[Nakazilla]

It's for all games played tonight. All away/home team goals & o/u for all 5 games

[biggerleaffan]

Yep, grand salami is just the total goals scored in all games tonight.

[BuckeyeKaptn]

ok, I'm going to do this only once but here's what I have as plays besides Nas/Pho

Colo / Over (A)
Van / Over (B)

Wanna make sure I'm following this correctly, in case I can't get to the forum. Won't do it again!

[biggerleaffan]

28.01.2012
NAS chase "over": A) O 5.5 (+115) @ PHX 1u to win 2.15u
PHX chase "under": A) U 5.5 (-125) @ SJ 1.25u to win 2.25u | B) U 5.0 (+115) vs LA 1.96u to win 4.21u | C) U 5.5 (-135) vs. NAS 5.69u to win 9.90u
COL chase "over": A) O 5.5 (+100) @ EDM 1u to win 2u
VAN chase "over":A) O 5.5 (-105) @ SJ 1.05u to win 2.05u | B) O 5.0 (-130) @ LA 2.67u to win 4.72u

[BuckeyeKaptn]

I made a 2013 NHL schedule to help everyone keep track of the plays...editable.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bynr1eDtdk5ZUkxWWXFyd0JJaGM/edit

[biggerleaffan]

28.01.2012
NAS chase "over": A) O 5.5 (+115) @ PHX 1u to win 2.15u
PHX chase "under": A) U 5.5 (-125) @ SJ 1.25u to win 2.25u | B) U 5.0 (+115) vs LA 1.96u to win 4.21u | C) U 5.5 (-135) vs. NAS 5.69u to win 9.90u
COL chase "over": A) O 5.5 (+100) @ EDM 1u to win 2u
VAN chase "over":A) O 5.5 (-105) @ SJ 1.05u to win 2.05u | B) O 5.0 (-130) @ LA 2.67u to win 4.72u

YTD: 6-0 (+6.35u)

Blue = push for those wondering

[biggerleaffan]

I made a 2013 NHL schedule to help everyone keep track of the plays...editable.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bynr...Fyd0JJaGM/edit

Thanks Buckeye!

[biggerleaffan]

29.01.2013
BOS chase "under": A) U 5.0 (+110) vs. NJD 1u to win 2.10u
TOR chase "under": A) U 5.5 (-115) @ BUF 1.15u to win 2.15u
WIN chase "under": A) U 5.5 (-135) @ MTL 1.35u to win 2.35u
WSH chase "over": A) O 5.5 (+100) @ OTT 1u to win 2u
NYI chase "under": A) U 5.5 (-110) @ WIN 1.10u to win 2.10u | B) U 5.5 (+115) @ PIT 1.82u to win 3.91u
CLB chase "over": A) O 5.5 (+115) @ MIN 1u to win 2.15u

[BuckeyeKaptn]

Question. I doing back tests on NHL from the past 10 seasons. I figured I'd it for this system, I'm on vacation and got the time!!! I'll post it and then you can refer to it or whatever.
Anyway, you have a team go 3 Overs and you start the streak. BAM, BAM, BAM....3 losses. Do you take your lumps and call it a loss and wait until the team goes Under again, start another chase right away (based on 6 straight Overs), or wait 3 more Overs to start (9 straight Overs)? I'll incorporate it into my back test/numbers. Sorry, if you already stated it in another post.

[biggerleaffan]

Question. I doing back tests on NHL from the past 10 seasons. I figured I'd it for this system, I'm on vacation and got the time!!! I'll post it and then you can refer to it or whatever.
Anyway, you have a team go 3 Overs and you start the streak. BAM, BAM, BAM....3 losses. Do you take your lumps and call it a loss and wait until the team goes Under again, start another chase right away (based on 6 straight Overs), or wait 3 more Overs to start (9 straight Overs)? I'll incorporate it into my back test/numbers. Sorry, if you already stated it in another post.

I can explain best with an example...

If Toronto has 6 straight overs, I won't start a chase with then until the O streak is broken.
OOOOOO...then OOO...I would not play that 7th over as an A bet. If however, after the 6 overs, it went UOOO...then I would play another O chase starting with an A bet

[biggerleaffan]

29.01.2013
BOS chase "under": A) U 5.0 (+110) vs. NJD 1u to win 2.10u
TOR chase "under": A) U 5.5 (-115) @ BUF 1.15u to win 2.15u
WIN chase "under": A) U 5.5 (-135) @ MTL 1.35u to win 2.35u
WSH chase "over": A) O 5.5 (+100) @ OTT 1u to win 2u
NYI chase "under": A) U 5.5 (-110) @ WIN 1.10u to win 2.10u | B) U 5.5 (+115) @ PIT 1.82u to win 3.91u
CLB chase "over": A) O 5.5 (+115) @ MIN 1u to win 2.15u

YTD: 8-0 (+8.45u)

Damn...really hoped WSH or TOR would win their total bet tonight as they play each other Thursday

[gigicash]

CLB didn't go over or am I missing something ?

[Bettalent]

CLB didn't go over or am I missing something ?

Correct, he chases the over, therefore he lost that bet.

[BuckeyeKaptn]

CLB didn't go over or am I missing something ?

This is what you're playingVVVV

29.01.2013
BOS chase "under": A) U 5.0 (+110) vs. NJD 1u to win 2.10u
TOR chase "under": A) U 5.5 (-115) @ BUF 1.15u to win 2.15u
WIN chase "under": A) U 5.5 (-135) @ MTL 1.35u to win 2.35u
WSH chase "over": A) O 5.5 (+100) @ OTT 1u to win 2u
NYI chase "under": A) U 5.5 (-110) @ WIN 1.10u to win 2.10u | B) U 5.5 (+115) @ PIT 1.82u to win 3.91u




.
CLB chase "over": A) O 5.5 (+115) @ MIN 1u to win 2.15u

CBus/Min score was 2-3...total 5, therefore a loss. Hope that helps.

[biggerleaffan]

CLB didn't go over or am I missing something ?

I'm sorry if my record is throwing you off...my record only takes into account the success rate of a chase. Since the CLB chase hasn't ended yet, it isn't added to my record.

[biggerleaffan]

30.01.2013
CHI chase "over": A) O 5.5 (-110) vs. DET 1.10u to win 2.10u | B) O 5.5 (+120) @ MIN 1.75u to win 3.85u
COL chase "over": A) O 5.5 (+100) @ EDM 1u to win 2u | B) O 5.5 (+120) @ VAN 1.67u to win 3.67u
VAN chase "over": A) O 5.5 (-105) @ SJ 1.05u to win 2.05u | B) O 5.0 (-130) @ LA 2.67u to win 4.72u | B) O 5.5 (+120) vs. COL 1.71u to win 3.76u

Both COL and VAN face each other have 4 straight U's, instead of doing one big bet to cover both of those streaks I've decided to make 2 separate bets just to organize things better and make it easier to read.

[BuckeyeKaptn]

Gigicash...in post #25, I meant the game was a loss, not the series.

[BuckeyeKaptn]

30.01.2013

Both COL and VAN face each other have 4 straight U's, instead of doing one big bet to cover both of those streaks I've decided to make 2 separate bets just to organize things better and make it easier to read.

At least one is not chasing the under while the other chasing the over!!!

[Just Enough]

nice thread, good luck bro.

[rustie]

Good luck BLF will be keeping a eye on this thread for sure

Wishing you the best

[biggerleaffan]

Damn..not looking like the greatest of nights atm. No worries as we have CHI and VAN facing off Friday to end both of their chases

[biggerleaffan]

30.01.2013
CHI chase "over": A) O 5.5 (-110) vs. DET 1.10u to win 2.10u | B) O 5.5 (+120) @ MIN 1.75u to win 3.85u
COL chase "over": A) O 5.5 (+100) @ EDM 1u to win 2u | B) O 5.5 (+120) @ VAN 1.67u to win 3.67u
VAN chase "over": A) O 5.5 (-105) @ SJ 1.05u to win 2.05u | B) O 5.0 (-130) @ LA 2.67u to win 4.72u | B) O 5.5 (+120) vs. COL 1.71u to win 3.76u

Will post plays in a few hours, big day coming up

[biggerleaffan]

31.01.2012
COL chase "over": A) O 5.5 (+100) @ EDM 1u to win 2u | B) O 5.5 (+120) @ VAN 1.67u to win 3.67u | C) O 5.5 (+110) @ CAL 3.35u to win 7.04u
NAS chase "over": A) O 5.5 (+115) @ PHX 1u to win 2.15u | B) O 5.0 (-110) @ LA 2.20u to win 4.20u
SJ chase "over": A) O 5.5 (-105) vs. EDM 1.05u to win 2.05u
WIN chase "under": A) U 5.5 (-135) @ MTL 1.35u to win 2.35u | B) U 5.5 (-115) @ FLA 2.70u to win 5.05u
TOR chase "under": A) U 5.5 (-115) @ BUF 1.15u to win 2.15u | B) U 5.5 (-115) vs. WSH 2.48u to win 4.63u
WSH chase "over": A) O 5.5 (+100) @ OTT 1u to win 2u | B) O 5.5 (-105) @ TOR 2.10u to win 4.10u
CLB chase "over": A) O 5.5 (+115) @ MIN 1u to win 2.15u| B) O 5.0 (-140) vs. STL 2.80u to win 4.80u


Washington and Toronto posing a problem by being on separate streaks and playing each other but what can you do!

Let's get it

[gigicash]

I like the UNDER in that one

great thread!

GL