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Oh and I have Rangers/phil over 5. (my always take philly games overs philosophy)Comment -
Dude Man, nice to have ya around! ya I definitely slacked this week and forgot to put up the updated spreadsheet yesterday, I'll try to get on that tomorrow morning! And yes most of my picks are from that spreadsheet, but I will branch out if I see a matchup I like or if I see tom/cotes/stars/kpn/nino/tangodown big on something. Favorite part of the NHL forum is I feel there is a lot of good convo about lines/games from lots of differnet knowledgable posters. So far 4-2 on the night, hitting some big dogs too! However, I got greedy on betting the blues in reg (could have gotten the ML at a decent price, but it happens). Looks like the Oilers game wont cash on either but maybe the sharks will pull through.
If ya'll haven't noticed, I've been trying to pick more dogs lately because I've learned my lesson on betting heavy dogs and what's nice about dogs is you don't have as high a win % to turn a profit.Comment -
4-5-1 on the night, but hit my big 3* play. 3rd day in a row that I pick a team to win but took'em in reg when they win in OT/SO, can't catch a break. What was dumb is I could have gotten both Sharks and Blues (I think) at a +$ ML. May have to start doing that, if the team is a dog, I will just take the ML, if the team is a fav I will take them in regulation. Feel good about how I capped, actually picked 4/5 winners on the night, just made the wrong bet on two of them.Picks for 4/16/2013:
Capitals -.5 in reg (+104) -- 3*
Leafs @ Capitals, Over 5.5 (-120) -- 1*
Flyers -.5 in reg (+183) -- 1*
Rangers @ Flyers, Over 5.5 (+110) -- 1*
Blues -.5 in reg (+121) -- 2*
Canucks @ Blues, Over 5 (+110) -- 1*
Oilers -.5 in reg (+134) -- 2*
Wild @ Oilers, Under 5 (-105) -- 1*
Sharks -.5 in reg (+153) -- 1*
Kings @ Sharks, Under 5 (-105) -- 1*Comment -
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Picks for 4/17/2013:
Penguins -.5 in reg (+114) -- 2*
Canadiens @ Penguins, Under 5.5 (-125) -- 1*
Bruins -.5 in reg (-128) -- 3*
Sabres @ Bruins, Under 5 (+100) -- 1*
Redwings @ Flames, Over 5.5 (+115) -- 1*
Ducks -.5 in reg (+106) -- 2*Last edited by Huckleberry Pig; 04-17-13, 03:19 PM.Comment -
Going huge on Boston, Detroit Ml and Columbus ML (Value and they want it more), also bruins over 3 goals, Anaheim under 3.Comment -
Thanks Huck. I figured as much that you were using your sheet to base your picks on last night... that thing is gold man! Well done. Yes that's my favourite part of the fourm as well, following along with the discussion... got tired of following so I decided to dive in myself. Good night last night, I notice as well you're looking for more value in your picks lately..I'm trying to do the same. This is my first year wagering on sports seriously so I have learned a ton and look forward to learning more.Comment -
to quote a comment I just saw on the NHL page:
We are ALL Bostonians tonight!Comment -
changed bruins to a 3* play, pulling for ya Tom
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Cheers mate, lose 2/2 on the cricket and 4 horses didn't come in today as well (including Gretzky!!!! Thought I could rely on him!) But Bruins -1.5 will save the day!
Gonna stay up to watch this one as I got a feeling I will be too buzzing to sleep when I got this much money on 1 game. Do or die for April this Bruins game is!
Lets go Boston!Comment -
Yesterday
3-1 +$213
Ytd: 227-208-28 +$3,554.40Comment -
Today
Habs ml +137 $100 to win $137
Gotta go agains you huck!! Can't not take my habs at that priceComment -
Even without price in net I think they still got a shotComment -
hmmmmm????
Ducks or Blue Jackets
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hahah WOW. Bruins commit a DUMB penalty with 40 seconds left then let the Sabres (who have the worst PP in the league while the Bruins have the best PPK% in the league) score their SECOND PP goal of the night with seconds left. That's a bad beat if I've ever seen one. Not only that, but how AWFUL has Boston been at holding a 3rd period lead this season? Pathetic.
If it weren't for what happened in Boston the other day, I'd be pulling for the Sabres in this game now.Comment -
and now my under will be a push instead of a WComment -
Yep, pretty crazy how the stars can align sometimes... A few missed calls that could have went Boston's way I noticed, especially since Boston had 5 unanswered penalties until the one with 3 seconds left in OT. I had a bit of $ on the B's and am a little bitter. But yes, a very unfortunate rolling puck with 48 ticks on the clock was the beginning of the end for those of us suckers that took the bait.Comment -
BTW, rough situation tonight for the town of West, Texas. Huge explosion at a fertilizer plant, very bad damage to an apartment complex and retirement home. Many injured and not sure how many fatalities but early reports are 60-70 fatalities with approx 200 injured, hope those estimates are high.
To put it into perspective, this place is an 1hr and 15 minutes (77 miles) from Dallas, and an hour from Arlington. Apparently people in Arlington called in reporting feeling something like an earth quake (ended up being this explosion). My GF's friend's parents live 50 miles away and thought it was an earthquake saying the pictures in their home fell off the walls. Very scary situation.
If yall get a second, send some thoughts/prayers to the town of West, TXComment -
clearly I need to go back to favorites, not doing too hot on picking these dogs. Must also admit that my research has been lacking lately because of work (hence why I don't do the write-ups anymore) so that hasn't helped my recent record. Need to get back on track, that or only bet B2B games lolComment -
Everyone been getting hit lately. We will get back on track today Huck. If yesterday didn't happen I was having a few big bets today but bank balance says no hahaComment -
Picks for 4/18/2013:
Canadiens -.5 in reg (+102) -- 1*
Lightning @ Canadiens, Over 5.5 (-115) -- 2*
Leafs @ Islanders, Over 5.5 (-110) -- 2*
Kings -.5 in reg (-112) -- 2* (only reason this isn't a 3* is because of how hot the Blue Jackets are right now)
Rangers PL (+110) -- 1*
Blues -.5 in reg (-103) -- 3* (Nino has this as a BIG play, he is pretty darn good on those, I'm tailing)
Capitals -.5 in reg (+159) -- 2* (are you kidding me?! I know they are on the road but you are getting +$ for the hottest team in hockey)
Capitals -1.5 (+270) -- 1* (just for the hell of it)
Canucks @ Stars, Over 5.5 (+120) -- 1* (just for you Stars)
Last edited by Huckleberry Pig; 04-18-13, 01:43 PM.Comment -
Yesterday
0-1 -$100
Ytd: 227-209-28 +$3,454.40Comment -
Today
Caps ml +102 $100 to win $102
Mtl -1 +117 $100 to win $117
NYI ml +112 $100 to win $112Comment -
Blues -1 +108 $100 to win $108Comment -
I'm with you on every pick Cotes, but mine are all ML I paid juice.Comment -
4-4 so far, missed on the Blues game and Capitals game but those were big dogs so not too mad about that. Kings win would put us + for the nightComment -
5-4 on the night, wish we had hit the Blues game. Anyone watch it? It was like an exact repeat of the Bruins game last night. Penalty with under 2 mins, refs miss a call, and boom the game is tied with a minute left. Can't believe this has happened twice in two nights, makes youPicks for 4/18/2013:
Canadiens -.5 in reg (+102) -- 1*
Lightning @ Canadiens, Over 5.5 (-115) -- 2*
Leafs @ Islanders, Over 5.5 (-110) -- 2*
Kings -.5 in reg (-112) -- 2* (only reason this isn't a 3* is because of how hot the Blue Jackets are right now)
Rangers PL (+110) -- 1*
Blues -.5 in reg (-103) -- 3* (Nino has this as a BIG play, he is pretty darn good on those, I'm tailing)
Capitals -.5 in reg (+159) -- 2* (are you kidding me?! I know they are on the road but you are getting +$ for the hottest team in hockey)
Capitals -1.5 (+270) -- 1* (just for the hell of it)
Canucks @ Stars, Over 5.5 (+120) -- 1* (just for you Stars)
sometimes. Oh well, still positive on picks. Should have been wise enough to make the Caps in reg a 1* instead of 2* given the odds but it happens
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Yeah... I've watched it and Winnipeg as well... lost both bets with last minute tying goals
Huck, what does your spreadsheet say about Rangers b2b tonight? Might worth backing them up.Comment -
Have what I believe to be a pound play tonight...
Stars at Blues, Blues -.5 in reg (-106) -- 5*
Both teams on a B2B and the percentages are STRONGLY in favor of the Blues. First, they are on B2B home games, and won the first home game. I've preached this situation all year, it is my favorite one. Teams that have won the first home game of B2B home games have gone on to win the 2nd home game 86% of the time (they are 18-3 this year!). Blues won last night at home and the percentages are strongly in their favor tonight.
Second, the Stars are also in a B2B in which the first game was a home game that they won, but now they are on the road. Teams in this B2B situation this year (first game is a home W, second game on the road) have gone on to lose the second game 71% of the time (10-25 record). So that's another statistical advantage for the Blues.
Both teams are not good in B2B's so I count that as a wash. Regardless, I have yet to see a game this year have the odds favor one team so heavily. If you bet big though, I'd take the ML just in case as I have been beat the last 4 nights now (cause of the Blues last night) in games that I picked the right winner but lost because I had a regulation bet.Comment -
Teams in a situation where they have a home and road B2B, when winning the first game at home, have gone 10-25 in the second game on the road (aka they have lost the second game on the road 71% of the time). I would back the Sabres here, esp with how poor Rangers are on the road.Comment
