2013 NHL Picks

Chaosiam · 02-13-13, 11:16 AM

Originally posted by cotes17

Forgot to mention guys, thanks for making me look again at the buffalo game and staying away from it. Owe you guys one for that!

Well ur welcome bro

Huckleberry Pig · 02-13-13, 11:17 AM

Originally posted by cotes17

Not sure what to do for the pens game though. Not going to take ml that's for sure, Too much juice. Deciding between -1.5,-1 or -0.5 in reg

Not sure what to think on the Stars game. Will NOT be taking the ML either way. Dallas is 1-14-2 in the second night of back-to-back sets since last season. Calgary is 1-3-2 @ home this season but are 3-0-1 @ in their last 4 home games against the Stars (Calgary is also 5-1-2 in their last 8 vs Stars but the Stars went 3-1 last year against the Flames, but two of those Ws came after regulation).

I can't even decide whether to go Over or Under. Lehtonen has a 1.8 GAA & a .94 SV% in his last 5 starts while Irving has played well in the last two and has a 2.62 GAA and a .92 SV% in his 4 games. However, All four HTH matchups last year had totals of 5 or more while the Flames have only had one game this entire year stay at 5 goals or below, and it was the last one they played. Calgary has only scored 2 goals in the last 2 games while Dallas has 3 or more goals in 3 of their last 4.

Overall, with the O/U being at 5, I'm leaning with the Over.

cotes17 · 02-13-13, 11:20 AM

Originally posted by Huckleberry Pig

Not sure what to think on the Stars game. Will NOT be taking the ML either way. Dallas is 1-14-2 in the second night of back-to-back sets since last season. Calgary is 1-3-2 @ home this season but are 3-0-1 @ in their last 4 home games against the Stars (Calgary is also 5-1-2 in their last 8 vs Stars but the Stars went 3-1 last year against the Flames, but two of those Ws came after regulation).

I can't even decide whether to go Over or Under. Lehtonen has a 1.8 GAA & a .94 SV% in his last 5 starts while Irving has played well in the last two and has a 2.62 GAA and a .92 SV% in his 4 games. However, All four HTH matchups last year had totals of 5 or more while the Flames have only had one game this entire year stay at 5 goals or below, and it was the last one they played. Calgary has only scored 2 goals in the last 2 games while Dallas has 3 or more goals in 3 of their last 4.

Overall, with the O/U being at 5, I'm leaning with the Over.

I'm leaning to the over too

Seeing Stars · 02-13-13, 11:21 AM

1ST ....A lot of talk about the backup goalie starting for DAL tonight, nothing confirmed, anyone hear anything???

GOOD DAY yesterday 4-2-1,

JonahHFalcon · 02-13-13, 11:24 AM

Originally posted by Seeing Stars

1ST ....A lot of talk about the backup goalie starting for DAL tonight, nothing confirmed, anyone hear anything???

GOOD DAY yesterday 4-2-1,

Would be shocked to see Lehtonen start

Huckleberry Pig · 02-13-13, 11:24 AM

Originally posted by Chaosiam

And checking some info. Louis has lost 5 of their last games and last time Detroit whipped their ass 5-1 on the ROAD! This Chaosmeter is pointing strongly to DET...

Wings have won 3 straight, are at home coming off of 2 days rest, against a team they have outscored 10-4 in their last two matchups... going against a Blues team that has lost 5 in a row and has given up 5 or more goals in each of their last 5 games. I like the Wings here and actually think they are a pretty good value pick at -125 right now. Also like the Over a lot (esp at even, lots of value I think). The last 3 times these teams have played, the Over has hit. Blues are giving up goals like crazy right now. Wings starting to come to form.

Only thing that worries me is that these picks seem almost too obvious...

Still, strong lean for me on the Wings and the Over. Havn't had a chance to do my true research on it but when I do I'll report back.

Chaosiam · 02-13-13, 11:29 AM

Originally posted by Huckleberry Pig

Wings have won 3 straight, are at home coming off of 2 days rest, against a team they have outscored 10-4 in their last two matchups... going against a Blues team that has lost 5 in a row and has given up 5 or more goals in each of their last 5 games. I like the Wings here and actually think they are a pretty good value pick at -125 right now. Also like the Over a lot (esp at even, lots of value I think). The last 3 times these teams have played, the Over has hit. Blues are giving up goals like crazy right now. Wings starting to come to form.

Only thing that worries me is that these picks seem almost too obvious...

Still, strong lean for me on the Wings and the Over. Havn't had a chance to do my true research on it but when I do I'll report back.

Amen.

Seeing Stars · 02-13-13, 11:30 AM

Huckleberry, don't jump off STARS ML so fast, I can't believe its +120, I expected even...

They actually got stronger as the game went on, dominated 3RD, BIGGEST concern, starting goalies!!!

I'll try and confirm that, STARS look to slow every game down and possess and forecheck, hence the UNDERS and the - SOG every night

Seeing Stars · 02-13-13, 11:35 AM

Originally posted by JonahHFalcon

Would be shocked to see Lehtonen start

Yea, but I'm finding him listed to start.....HELP, anyone see something on goalies??

Chaosiam · 02-13-13, 11:40 AM

Originally posted by Seeing Stars

Huckleberry, don't jump off STARS ML so fast, I can't believe its +120, I expected even...

They actually got stronger as the game went on, dominated 3RD, BIGGEST concern, starting goalies!!!

I'll try and confirm that, STARS look to slow every game down and possess and forecheck, hence the UNDERS and the - SOG every night

You guys trusted me with TOR. We trusted Cotes with HABS. So I dont even look into this anymore.
Dallas ml.

Seeing Stars · 02-13-13, 11:41 AM

CAL has only one win at home YTD.....history is relevant but these teams are truly different from their past. Without trying to be a HOMER, Stars of the past few seasons would always lose leads and game late, thats not happening this year. CAL has a losing record and trends OVER this year, tells me they give up many goals when they lose, and apparently thats often.

cotes17 · 02-13-13, 11:41 AM

Originally posted by Seeing Stars

Yea, but I'm finding him listed to start.....HELP, anyone see something on goalies??

Im not seeing anything on it either. And yeah I might lay off the det ml and only take the over. I think the stars are pretty good value I agree with you and the over might be a good choice

cotes17 · 02-13-13, 11:43 AM

Originally posted by Chaosiam

You guys trusted me with TOR. We trusted Cotes with HABS. So I dont even look into this anymore.
Dallas ml.

Yeah let's get it boys! I trusted in Dallas yesterday and won so why not again? Hope a few guys trusted in me with Anaheim yesterday along with habs!

Seeing Stars · 02-13-13, 11:46 AM

Stars Overall Scoring vs Flames Overall Defense	2.3	25	3.5	27
Stars Road Scoring vs Flames Home Defense	1.8	28	3.8	29
Stars Road PP vs Flames Home PK	7.4	24	73.7	27
Flames Overall Scoring vs Stars Overall Defense	2.6	20	2.2	6
Flames Home Scoring vs Stars Road Defense	2.5	22	1.9	2
Flames Home PP vs Stars Road PK	22.7	13	90.2	4

As "they" say, the numbers don't lie......

so now you've got me sticking my neck out and Cotes and Chao have picked winners this week for the group....

Huckleberry Pig · 02-13-13, 11:47 AM

Originally posted by Seeing Stars

CAL has only one win at home YTD.....history is relevant but these teams are truly different from their past. Without trying to be a HOMER, Stars of the past few seasons would always lose leads and game late, thats not happening this year. CAL has a losing record and trends OVER this year, tells me they give up many goals when they lose, and apparently thats often.

Great info Stars, and good point about Dallas being a completely different team last year. I do think Dallas is the better team here, esp with Lehtonen in net. The one thing that concerns me is their record in back-to-backs. Definitely dont see any value in the Flames, much more so on the Stars (my site has them at +115). Just not confident enough right now to pick them. Do like the Over though, esp if Lehtonen is not in net

Seeing Stars · 02-13-13, 11:50 AM

Originally posted by cotes17

Yeah let's get it boys! I trusted in Dallas yesterday and won so why not again? Hope a few guys trusted in me with Anaheim yesterday along with habs!

MTL WINS, MTL WINS!!!!

Huckleberry Pig · 02-13-13, 11:50 AM

Originally posted by Seeing Stars

Stars Overall Scoring vs Flames Overall Defense	2.3	25	3.5	27
Stars Road Scoring vs Flames Home Defense	1.8	28	3.8	29
Stars Road PP vs Flames Home PK	7.4	24	73.7	27
Flames Overall Scoring vs Stars Overall Defense	2.6	20	2.2	6
Flames Home Scoring vs Stars Road Defense	2.5	22	1.9	2
Flames Home PP vs Stars Road PK	22.7	13	90.2	4

As "they" say, the numbers don't lie......

so now you've got me sticking my neck out and Cotes and Chao have picked winners this week for the group....

Any way you could adjust that to just the last 5 games? I think there is much more truth in numbers in how a team has done in their last 5 than the overall season, think teams can get inflated/deflated based on how they started the year. Like having season avg's and last 5 games avg's to compare.

Seeing Stars · 02-13-13, 11:55 AM

STL/DET OVER!!!! STL GOALIES GAA + 3.5

6 OR MORE EACH GAME YTD in match-up

Seeing Stars · 02-13-13, 12:01 PM

Huckster, how bout this..
STARS last 5 4-1, no total over 5
CAL 2-3 over 5 twice, those 2 wins....on the road

Leftonen must be starting ML just dropped to +115

Seeing Stars · 02-13-13, 12:05 PM

Lots of high scoring games in the past between OTT/PIT, but 10 unders this season for OTT, ???? ANY thoughts ...

cotes17 · 02-13-13, 12:05 PM

Originally posted by Seeing Stars

Huckster, how bout this..
STARS last 5 4-1, no total over 5
CAL 2-3 over 5 twice, those 2 wins....on the road

Leftonen must be starting ML just dropped to +115

Should we take it before it drops more?

cotes17 · 02-13-13, 12:06 PM

Originally posted by Seeing Stars

Lots of high scoring games in the past between OTT/PIT, but 10 unders this season for OTT, ???? ANY thoughts ...

I think Pitts comes back hard after a tough weekend. Ott will need to try and keep up with pens scoring to have any chance

Seeing Stars · 02-13-13, 12:16 PM

Originally posted by cotes17

Should we take it before it drops more?

STARS ML, yes, yes , yes

I was waiting on UNDER call....

Bachman for STARS goal.....I still like UNDER, both teams will be stressing DEF first to help goalies...now if they will just be in position.

Seeing Stars · 02-13-13, 12:23 PM

Most of ya'll don't like UNDER (boring)

I know....just giving my take on it and I look at a push as a + not a -, that took awhile to learn

Seeing Stars · 02-13-13, 12:26 PM

Originally posted by Chaosiam

Amen.

The number is dropping for STL ML am I missing something, DET should be big FAV

cotes17 · 02-13-13, 12:26 PM

Originally posted by Seeing Stars

STARS ML, yes, yes , yes

I was waiting on UNDER call....

Bachman for STARS goal.....I still like UNDER, both teams will be stressing DEF first to help goalies...now if they will just be in position.

Think odds will go up if Bachman is in?

Chaosiam · 02-13-13, 12:27 PM

Originally posted by Seeing Stars

Lots of high scoring games in the past between OTT/PIT, but 10 unders this season for OTT, ???? ANY thoughts ...

I have a feeling that Pens are coming back like a train. Now I have to doubt even Erik Karlsson in Ottawas defense. I took pens -1.

Seeing Stars · 02-13-13, 12:29 PM

Originally posted by Huckleberry Pig

Wings have won 3 straight, are at home coming off of 2 days rest, against a team they have outscored 10-4 in their last two matchups... going against a Blues team that has lost 5 in a row and has given up 5 or more goals in each of their last 5 games. I like the Wings here and actually think they are a pretty good value pick at -125 right now. Also like the Over a lot (esp at even, lots of value I think). The last 3 times these teams have played, the Over has hit. Blues are giving up goals like crazy right now. Wings starting to come to form.

Only thing that worries me is that these picks seem almost too obvious...

Still, strong lean for me on the Wings and the Over. Havn't had a chance to do my true research on it but when I do I'll report back.

Agreed, STL (EV) ??? WHAT AM I MISSING??

cotes17 · 02-13-13, 12:30 PM

Originally posted by Chaosiam

I have a feeling that Pens are coming back like a train. Now I have to doubt even Erik Karlsson in Ottawas defense. I took pens -1.

I'm on the same boat chao. Lets get em

Chaosiam · 02-13-13, 12:47 PM

Originally posted by cotes17

I'm on the same boat chao. Lets get em

Lock and load, let´s get ´em.

Stars, put on those asskicking boots of your. You got job to do.

Seeing Stars · 02-13-13, 12:53 PM

Originally posted by cotes17

Think odds will go up if Bachman is in?

THEY won't go down, maybe....

B2B is betting influence more than anything

Seeing Stars · 02-13-13, 12:55 PM

Originally posted by Chaosiam

Lock and load, let´s get ´em.

Stars, put on those asskicking boots of your. You got job to do.

Boots only come out when I'm mad.....

So what are we thinking guys??? Cotes, Chao...OVER in Pens ML, DET ML, DAL ML??

Seeing Stars · 02-13-13, 12:56 PM

Huckster, OV in CAL?? and what else

Seeing Stars · 02-13-13, 01:01 PM

here's what I have....

DAL ML
DAL UN
STL/DET OV

OTT/PIT
DET ML
(pending)

Chaosiam · 02-13-13, 01:04 PM

Originally posted by Seeing Stars

Boots only come out when I'm mad.....

So what are we thinking guys??? Cotes, Chao...OVER in Pens ML, DET ML, DAL ML??

Ottawa likes to play under so this can end both ways. But Pens ml, DET ml, DAL ml are on my mind today. Even thinking to made some kind of parlay...I have this strange feeling that im missing something here. these games seems somehow too obvious..