How often a substitute player gets booked?

**muffins** · 08-04-12, 02:43 PM

Assume you're talking "any" substitute player (i.e. of the up to six in a match) rather than a particular substitute player?

Don't have any stats, but bother figures will depend quite a bit on the particular league, especially the card one.

**Sawyer** · 08-04-12, 04:51 PM

Any player who enters game. So it can be 1 to 6 players. Usually 4-6 players change in a game so we can say 4-6. Well, I asked for an average laegue but would be nice if we can have numbers for specific leagues such as Spain, England, Denmark, France etc. Probably more cards in Spain..

My local is offering -200 for this prop (No Card) and it sounds "too good" to me. Any player who gets in the game gets a card %34 of all time? I don't think so.

**muffins** · 08-04-12, 07:13 PM

eng prem lge. 1228 cards = 3.23 per match.

22 men on field for 90 minutes = 1980 man minutes = one card per 613 player minutes.

So if all 6 subs used and played 30mins each then odds of card = 180/613 = 29.3%

at -200 (1.50? sorry my u.s odds suck) they're saying there is a 33% or so chance of a card, implies basically 200 minutes of sub time played. I would estimate that is too high as rarely are all six subs used, rarely is any on before 60 and regularly subs happen in last 10mins. Also need to consider though that subs play in higher risk time for cards, last 20 mins, and as subs often they are fringe guys who take the card for the team. But I would still think the -200 is value for No as the sub-time played is closer to 100mins a match than 200 Id guess.

**muffins** · 08-04-12, 07:24 PM

btw probably should use 93 minutes per match rather than 90, so 2046 instead of 1980. changes it a little.

**easyliving** · 08-04-12, 10:25 PM

no way its anywhere near 30 maybe 2 substitutions happen before 75th minute in soccer. alot of subsitutions happen late not to mention the injury time substitutions to kill clock. the number is probably no higher than 15-20% at max.

**Juret** · 08-05-12, 04:23 AM

Do defenders pick up more cards than midfielders/attackers? I'd say defenders are less likely to be substituted, so if they usually pick up more cards then the "card sub rate" for the prop should be even lower.

**Sawyer** · 08-05-12, 02:11 PM

Thank you for the feedback.Looks like 1,50 (-200) for "no" bet looks valuable. I will make a backtesting about it.

What about "No substitute goal" ? Odds are 1,20 (-500). Looks like fair to me. A substitue player scores a goal 1/6 or 1/8 probably?

**muffins** · 08-05-12, 07:37 PM

No idea on the goal front, but its promising. This one is probably worth a bit of research effort, as goal expectancies of particularly games make a big difference to yes/no and there has to be points where one or the other is valuable, as a simple rule u2.5 1.50 you would think would mean "no" is value. High expectancy games the "yes" may well be value (e.g. o2.5 1.50) as subtitutes come on in the prime goal scoring time, the last 15mins, and are often the desperate extra attacking options. "Yes" could be even better value in cup games or league 2nd legs (champs league/europa league) where you get scenarios of must score/goalie running up field and high likelihood of late goals.